THE TRUMPERS ARE STILL A MAJOR THREAT

If there is a military history metaphor for where we are now, it is the summer of 1942, following the battle of Midway and just at the decision to invade Guadalcanal.

Midway was won by the narrowest of margins; the United States went into the fight the underdog, making the victory surprising. However, while it has been touted in history since as the “turning point in the Pacific,” that’s not really the case. Winning Midway meant we weren’t going to lose right off.

That fits well to the event in Kansas, where abortion rights activists are celebrating a major victory when voters overwhelmingly rejected a ballot initiative that would have endangered abortion access in the first statewide electoral test since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It was a fight they hoped they might win by a narrow margin, but also hoped their expected defeat would be equally narrow. That it was as decisive as it is - a 24 point margin! - suggests anger over the Supreme Court's June decision could help Democrats to galvanize voters at a time when many Americans are blaming Democratic President Joe Biden's administration for soaring gasoline and food prices.

Following the victory at Midway, where Japan lost the heart of its carrier striking force, what remained was still formidable. The Japanese Navy was strong enough to make the subsequent U.S. invasion of Guadalcanal a real contest, with the Imperial Navy winning often enough that many U.S. military leaders considered the outcome potentially disastrous. Indeed, when Admiral Nimitz made his tour of the island in early October after the battle had been raging for two months, the main question he wanted an answer to was whether there was a possibility the U.S. could win. Right up to the moment the Japanese decided they could not retake Guadalcanal, the Americans in the fight thought they might lose. The victory came on a very narrow margin.

But once victory happened, it was clear that Guadalcanal was the true turning point in the Pacific War. After the Battle of Guadalcanal, Japan never again took the offensive, and the United States never lost it.

Hopefully, this is the correct metaphor for November.

Tuesday’s results underscored the continued dominance of Trump among Republicans and widespread support for his false claims that the 2020 election was rigged.

In significant state-level Republican primary races across the country Tuesday, candidates who ran on lies about the 2020 election were dominant, joining a growing record of success for politicians who say the would have rejected the will of the people in that election.

It was a warning for any would-be Republican challengers should he seek the White House again in 2024. The fates of the House Republicans who voted to impeach him following the sedition of January 6 2021 is exemplary.

In the key battleground state of Arizona, super-MAGA election denier Mark Finchem - who said the only way the election would not be rigged was if he won - won the Republican nomination for secretary of state, a position that would position him to make maximum trouble over the conduct of elections should he win in November. Finchem went to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters and has continued to assert that the former president won the 2020 election.

In Michigan, conservative commentator Tudor Dixon, who supports Trump's Big Lie, won the Republican nomination for governor and will face Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer in one of the most high-profile races this November - which will also revolve around abortion rights. She is the Republican who said a 14 year old raped by an uncle and pregnant was exactly the person the law was designed to prevent her having access to an abortion.

Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who was endorsed by Trump, ill face Democratic Governor Laura Kelly in what is expected to be a highly competitive race.

Blake Masters - who actually looks like the ghoul he is, and who argues US participation in World War II was wrong - who is supported by tech billionaire Peter Thiel, an open supporter of fascism and opponent of women’s right to vote, won the Republican nomination for Senate and will face Senator Mark Kelly, seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

Kari Lake, whose race for the gubernatorial nomination in Arizona is still too close to call, has not only said that she wouldn’t have certified Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, but also that it was “disqualifying” that her opponent wouldn’t say the election had been stolen.

Arizona’s new GOP attorney general nominee, Abe Hamadeh, is on the election lie train, publicly supporting Dinesh D’Souza’s latest hackery, “2000 Mules,” saying the film “is giving the election fraud deniers exactly what they’ve been saying doesn’t exist. Now they cannot deny that there is hard evidence of ballot box stuffing.”

In Michigan, Kristina Karamo became the GOP’s de facto secretary of state nominee in April after winning the vote at the state GOP convention.

The Republican pick for Michigan attorney general, Matthew DePerno, who like Karamo won the party’s nod in an April convention, is perhaps more intimately involved in the 2020 Coup attempts than any other candidate, having represented a voter who sued Antrim County, Michigan over a simple human error in the 2020 election count that was quickly corrected. A severely flawed report on those machines was subsequently used by Donald Trump and his supporters to push nationwide fraud claims. Months later, copies of the voting machines’ digital information was still floating around conspiracy theory circles.

DePerno earned Trump’s endorsement nearly a year ago, and, more recently, that of the state’s Republican senate leader — the same leader who had once warned DePerno would “encourage Trump to make even more mischief in Michigan.”

Tuesday confirmed what’s now become the GOP norm: candidates like Missouri’s new GOP U.S. Senate nominee Eric Schmitt, who as the state’s attorney general joined the suit to overturn the 2020 election results. He may claim to be “reasonable,” but look at his actions. Trumper through and through.

Tuesday even bought back Kris Kobach, one of the previous decade’s most outspoken advocates of bogus voter fraud claims who won his primary race to become the GOP nominee to be the attorney general.

There were some bright spots.

In Kansas, election denier Mike Brown was unsuccessful in his effort to unseat incumbent Secretary of State Scott Schwabm.

In Washington, two Republican members of Congress who voted to impeach Donald Trump over January 6 survived primary battles.

Remember, as you contemplate our coming “Battle of Guadalcanal”: The House is not gone. Yes, Republicans certainly still have the advantage. But it’s not done. Not at all. There’s been a marked shift in the trajectory of the midterm since mid-May. And the factors that appear to be driving it – Dobbs, a moderate slackening of fuel prices (FWIW - the Shell Station next to the TJ’s at the White Oak Blvd exit from the 101, one of the more expensive stations in Encino, has Regular at $5.31/gal, down a DOLLAR from two weeks ago) and possible new Democratic legislative achievements are more likely to continue.

But too many people believe the House is already gone. This is itself a major problem. Believing something doesn’t make it so. But a team that believes it will lose is certainly more likely to. That’s what nearly happened at Guadalcanal, until Admiral Nimitz replaced the defeatist commander Admiral Ghormley, with the guy who wouldn’t say the word “defeat” - Admiral Halsey - who turned things around by sheer force of personality and unwillingness to entertain the idea of defeat. As one young pilot wrote in his diary, “the Admiral’s attitude seems to be infectious.”

The outcome of the 2022 midterm is still to be decided. Winning the House is definitely possible. It’s not mere theoretical chance or aspiration. It’s in play. It’s genuinely in play.

For those who may still be in doubt as to exactly what Peter Meijer is, last night he introduced Trump Big Lie believer John Dibbs at a Republican meeting and announced his support of Dibbs’ campaign. So much for the “Good” Republican. Guys like him remind me of the Old Bolsheviks, confessing their “crimes against the people” in one of Stalin’s show trials and throwing themselves on the mercy of the court. Only to get a Tokarev bullet in the base of their skull that night in their basement cell in the NKVD’s Lubyanka Prison.

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