WOMEN OVER 65 ARE GOING TO WIN THE VICTORY ON NOVEMBER 5

MAGA senate candidate Bernie Moreno outdid himself yesterday, being caught on tape saytay, saying Ohio women are “a little crazy” for supporting abortion rights. He continued:

“You know, the left has a lot of single-issue voters. Sadly, by the way, there’s a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women that are like, ‘Listen, abortion is it. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else.’ … OK. It’s a little crazy by the way, but — especially for women that are like past 50 — I’m thinking to myself, ‘I don’t think that’s an issue for you.’”

Yeah, right. It’s not an issue for them because everyone knows women over age 50 don’t have daughters, granddaughters, nieces or female co-workers or younger friends.

With this, Moreno reveal the key feature of MAGA: “I only think of myself.” Why would it be otherwise? Who’s their leader again?

While Democrats have in previous elections pinned their hope for success on young voters, which blunts the GOP’s historic advantage among older voters, something different is going on in this election cycle: While young Gen Z men and their Gen X fathers are moving to the right, the really crucial demographic for Harris is older female boomers.

When I read that, I nodded in ready agreement. I see that every day here at That’s Another Fine Mess. Contra my original expectations when I decided to do this, the majority of readers and subscribers - free and paid - are women. The overwhelming number of Substackers who are following Yours Truly are women. Not just women, older women. Whenever notice of a new subscriber or follower pops up in my email, I check that out to see who the person is - it’s a good way to maintain an understanding of who the audience I’m writing for is.

And hands down, they’re older female boomers. We guys here are the minority. And when it comes to reading through the comments on my posts, the best ones come from the majority demographic here. For the guys here, I can prove it - we’re running in the back of the gaggle.

I think that’s a good thing.

A recent follower of TAFM wrote of herself, “As I age, I realize I have become a woman of wisdom, a ‘Wise One.’”

I quote that because it’s not an out of the ordinary statement here. Even for the subscribers and followers who don’t say anything that direct, when I look at what these women say they have done with their lives, the careers they followed, the choices they have made and are making in their lives, says that.

A few weeks back, Bill Maher - of all people - observed that while men from Gen Z and Gen X are drifting toward Donald Trump, they aren’t the ones who are going to vote. They may like Trump better than Harris, but their demographics have the largest number of non-voters in previous elections, which is a strong indicator that they will be the ones who continue that record and stay home this time. Despite all the interest in politics Gen Z is credited with - from the gun control crusade of the Active Shooter Drill generation to the Gaza solidarity movement on college and university campuses, the 50% who turned up to vote in 2020 were only 16% of the total electorate in that heavy turnout year.

In 2020, 55 percent of the electorate was over the age of 49 and Gen Xers, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation were 69% of the electorate. In 2016, running against Hillary Clinton, Trump won voters over 65 by eight percent. Running against Biden in 2020, Trump won the demographic by 4%.

While the Common Ignorance, er, I mean Knowledge is that older voters favor Republicans, things are different this time. Women over 40 are breaking for Harris in overwhelming numbers, and not just for abortion - though that is the main driver. Older women are now trending more Democratic; this is particularly true for white women who have traditionally trended Republican. Today? According to polls, including a survey from NBC News over the weekend, Harris is running even with Trump among seniors - men and woman - at 47 percent. It’s women who are doing that, because they break for Harris by 21% over Trump.

The AARP has been doing deep-dive polling on older Americans for years. According to an AARP poll in Wisconsin last week, Harris led Trump by one percentage point among all voters. But the numbers among older voters were striking. In their mid-summer Wisconsin poll, Trump led Biden by 9% among voters over age 50. Against Harris, Trump led among those voters by 50-47. Harris improved 5 points compared to Biden. Consider that 58 percent of the Wisconsin electorate is over 50. That’s huge. Harris is winning older women by three points while Trump wins older men by eight points.

Importantly, while Trump does better with the 50-64 demographic, the generation that became politically aware during the Reagan era,Harris leads among voters over 65.

Generations change from election to election regarding their habits, histories, and political preferences. The “Over 65" voters are now those who came of political age in the 1960s and 70s. The era of Vietnam, civil rights, and the beginning and early victories of the feminist movement. Those were their politically formative moments.

These are the women who remember how things were in the bad old days of their youth and how they became better during their early adulthood, changes like Roe v Wade that were thought to be permanent. When the women of this demographic hear MAGA Republicans questioning the right of women to vote, the role of women in the workforce and family; when they hear JD Vance say a woman should stay in a violent relationship, they have a strong reaction to all of that. These are the women who were the foot soldiers in those fights. For the most part, these women remain more progressive than their parents were.

Women over 50 number nearly 62 million, and traditionally have had the highest voter turnout record, particularly among black women. In 2020, these voters formed 25% ofhe overall population and 33% of the voting population.

While women of all ages are respponding to calls to protect women’s health care and the right to abortion, among the over-65 women, 63 percent of those over 50 feel less financially secure than they expected to be; 41 percent don’t have sufficient savings to cover an emergency expense; 44 percent don’t have a retirement savings account or pension.

Thee women pay attention to Harris when she points out the Biden administration’s successful negotiations with insurance companies to lower the cost of Medicare’s 10 most expensive drugs.

They pay attention to Harris’ tax plan to save Social Security.

While young people listen to Democratic plans to increase support for families through the child tax credit, increasing support for starting a small business, and assistance in buying a first home, as well as canceling student debt, their mothers and grandmothers - who worry about the futures of their offspring - are listening to those plans also.

And they pay attention to Project 2025's plan to privatize Social Security, end the caps on medicine cost, and cut the proposed programs for family support.

I think all of this points to the crucial voting demographic this election being women over 65. And when I think of the women I have known of that generation from our college days onward, I have no doubt of their ability to win the day on November 5.

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