THE GREEN SHOOTS ARE GROWING

I keep telling people that throwing in the towel now is like telling FDR to surrender on April 7, 1942, the day Bataan fell in the Philippines.

Before the Doolittle Tokyo Raid. Before the Battle of the Coral Sea. Before the Battle of Midway.

All of those were “unexpected game changers.” There were people who thought the U.S. Navy would lose those battles, and in fact the wins were very narrow.

But they were wins. The kind of wins that keep you from losing.

I really believe that is the situation we are in now. Do not listen to the lefty morons who say Joe Biden is too old, hasn’t accomplished anything, and ought to have the decency to declare his non-candidacy in 2024 now. Those people are drooling morons.

There are green shoots that are now not only poking through the snow, they’re growing.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution New Georgia Senate poll out this morning has Warnock 46%, Walker 43%. Other recent polls show a modest but consistent Warnock lead.

Couple that with Fetterman’s continuing lead over Dr. ConJob in Pennsylvania. Couple that with the four other GOP loonies the base served up as future Senators - who are running behind. J.D. Vance in Ohio just gave undecided women a good reason not to vote for him with his idea that women should stay in abusive marriages “for the sake of the children.”

Even the doomsayers now say the Democrats have a good chance to not only hold the Senate, but increase the number of Democrats by 2-3 if not more. Two is all we need to break the Manchinema log jam.

Meanwhile, three new congressional generic polls have come out over the last 24 hours.

Two give the Democrats a six point advantage and one gives a 4 point margin. One of those 6 point margins is actually a Republican Party poll.

This trend makes me think Democrats holding the House in November is definitely possible and getting more likely. Not remotely a lost cause.

But it won’t happen if the left decides they’re “disappointed” that Biden didn’t deliver the ponies and rainbows. If you want your ponies and rainbows, get a 52-48 D Senate.

The write up on the new congressional generic ballot poll from Morning Consult/Politico is important.

1. The 41st Morning Consult/Politico tracking survey conducted since September 2021 found congressional Democrats with their biggest advantage over Republicans — 37% to 26% — on the congressional generic ballot yet. On average in July, Democrats held a lead of 8 percentage points over the GOP on the question, up from a 1-point deficit in June and a 3-point advantage in May.

2. At the same time, independent voters have soured on Trump in recent weeks: The latest survey found 29% of independents hold favorable views of the former president, matching his standing in a survey conducted the weekend after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and down from 38% at the end of May.

3. Democrats’ gains on the generic ballot among independents are out of step with sentiment about Biden, whose numbers continue to crater: Since May, Biden’s favorability rating has dropped among independents, and his job approval rating with unaffiliated voters (27%) is worse than it has ever been in 66 surveys conducted since he took office.

4. That disconnect suggests independent voters may view November’s contests as less of a referendum and more of a choice between two parties. That would benefit Democrats, provided they can define their races on those favorable terms. (Emphasis mine)

Yes, there is a continuing disconnect between the popularity of President Biden and the popularity of members of his party serving in Congress.

Polling density and similarity of results has increased enough over the last few months that observers have decided that the disjuncture isn’t a fluke or an artifact of limited polling. They’re not moving in unison. And that’s definitely not the norm.

The new Morning Consult poll suggests that the January 6th hearings are seriously souring independents on Donald Trump. And that shift is, in turn, showing up in the generic ballots numbers.

This is important: The weight of the January 6th hearings is pushing voters to see the midterms more as a choice between Republicans and Democrats than a referendum on the President or the state of the country generally.

Over the last six weeks the 538.com average of the congressional generic ballot has moved from a 2.6 point GOP advantage to a .5 point GOP advantage. That is a small movement. But across dozens of polls and probably tens of thousands of voters we can be fairly confident that this is a real movement rather than statistical noise. Two points still is relatively small.

But remember, we’re talking about a spectrum in which the distance between Democrats holding the House and getting blown out in a wave is measured in perhaps 6 or at most 7 points. So in that context it’s a big move.

If this is going to happen, Democrats have to act like the sailors in the Pacific Fleet back in 1942. As Dick Best told me, “We did our jobs, because the alternative was unthinkable.”

So the next time you read some idiot going on about how the president’s no good and nothing’s going to happen except the Republican are going to win, do not let that post slip by. Digitally grab that idiot by his collar and give him a dose of reality (9 times out of 10, it’s going to be a “him.” Unfortunately.)

Remember: it’s better to die on your feet than live on your knees.

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