THE GOP HITS SOME SPEED BUMPS (UPDATED)

Have you ever driven down a street where the streetlights aren’t that bright, assumed because it was little used it would have no traffic or other problems, and then hit a speed bump going about 10mph higher speed than you should? Ooomph! That got your attention, didn’t it?

The GOP decided to take a short cut to 2024, turned down a dark street named “2022", assumed all was well, and has suddenly hit so many speed bumps it must feel like they’re on a washing board. Bump-bump-bump-bump-bump! Ouch!

It’s so obvious now that “Deadline White House” on MSNBC just did a segment this afternoon on how the Democrats may not only expand their numbers in the Senate, but might also hold the House.

I’m not even going to hint at “I told you so” except there I went and said it. I did! Tell you so! I did indeed.

In Ohio, JD Vance, the spawn of avowed anti-democracy billionaire Peter Thiel who made it through the primary on Thiel’s money, has disappeared from the electric teevee machine. Not only that, but now the news is that the Senate Leadership Fund had to put money into a state they expected to win easily. Vance is gone, other than for an ad from his wife telling everyone that really, he is a nice guy, so please Ohio - give him a chance!

In the meantime, the guy who everyone said was on a Quixotic Quest to become Ohio’s other Democratic senator, is on the tube constantly. Tim Ryan, talking about how he’s a working class Ohioan, who agreed with Trump on trade and sending jobs to China, but not about overthrowing the government. Ryan with Vets talking about how Vance might be a vet but he sucks. Ryan bashing Vance as an elite snobbish fake venture capitalist from San Francisco, who doesn’t care about Ohioans and only came back to push a political career.

This is followed by Democratic PAC ads attacking Republicans for voting against jobs in Ohio through the CHIPS and Science Bill, bashing Republicans for voting against jobs in Ohio from new industries that will be created to deal with climate change supported by the money in the IRA they all voted against, hitting them for coming in everyone’s bedrooms to run their lives while claiming to be in favor of “small government.” Hitting them for voting against $35 insulin in a state with a serious diabetes problem among Trump voters.

And nada from Republicans? Wasn’t Thiel going to prove he was a Mover And Shaker by buying two - count ‘em, two! - Senators???

Were they perhaps overconfident?

Did they believe their own bullshit?

Tim Ryan still very much has his work cut out for him in Ohio. His lead is modest. But he’s not the only one pulling ahead.

It’s not just Ohio. John Fetterman is beating that nice Dr. Oz like a cheap drum. Snooki made jokes at his expense. Stevie Vee Zee told him he’ll be welcome when he comes home to Joisey! Someone asked in a tweet, was Fetterman going to shitpost Oz all the way to the Senate, and the response was “We’re trying hard!” Today, The Cook Political Report has moved the Pennsylvania US Senate contest from toss-up to lean Democrat.

In the meantime, despite Charlie Sykes’ prediction, Mandela Barnes is up seven points on RonJohn. And this time RonJohn’s dealing with a 36% approval/57% disapproval rating. In 2016, he won with a 38 favorable/36 unfavorable rating. The survey found Barnes winning 51-46 among all registered voters, and 52-45 with those certain to vote as well as those likely to vote.

RonJohn could have been beating up on Barnes all summer, but did nothing. Labor Day is less than two weeks away, the time voters traditionally start “paying attention.” That’s too late to paint your opponent for them.

And despite all the thoughts that Barnes might be too progressive for Wisconsin outside of Madison and Milwaukee, the same survey that found him up seven also found that 88% of Wisconsin voters statewide favor keeping access to abortion legal - with 79% of Republicans, 97% of Democrats and 87% of independents supporting this, as does Barnes. This may be a problem for the GOP gubernatorial candidate, far right Tim Michels, who stated publicly that the state’s 1849 anti-abortion law, which outlaws it in all cases including rape or incest, is “an exact mirror” of his position, a position RonJohn also agrees with - then tells women they can “always drive to Illinois.”

Even Mitch McConnell admitted today that “it appears likely” Democrats will maintain control of the Senate in November.

During an event in Kentucky, McConnell suggested that it was far more likely that Republicans are able to flip the House than take back the Senate. “I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

The candidate quality line is striking. McConnell spent most of the spring trying to recruit some more traditional candidates like Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Governor Larry Hogan or Maryland and Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, but that failed and now he is stuck with loonies like election deniers Don Bolduc in New Hampshire and Blake Masters in Arizona or turkeys like Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania and JD Vance in Ohio. His inability to recruit non-extreme candidates to run in crucial Senate races has been on display throughout the primary season as one far-right, extremist candidate after another has won Republican nominations.

In Arizona, Blake Masters - the man who thinks America made a mistake entering World War II - trails Mark Kelly by eight points. In Florida, Val Demings now leads Widdle Marco by four. In North Carolina former Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is up four over Representative Ted Budd, a notorious Trumper.

There are some broader patterns we can note.

First, if all your candidates are struggling, your party is probably not headed for a “wave year.” What we are seeing here is that for the last year Republicans - and too damn many Democrats - have been operating on the assumption that history, inflation and COVID fatigue guaranteed a GOP wave in which it hardly mattered who the candidate was as long as there was an “R” at the end. As for pummeling Democrats during their primaries, how much money do you need to spend defining Democrats who are about to go down to 10 point to 20 point margin defeats?

Can you say “overconfidence”?

I knew you could.

Republicans think they are still favorites to win at least the House. But Republicans have spent their advantage in candidate recruitment, spending decisions and candidate vacation policies.

Inflation was their silver bullet. But it’s coming down.

Hey! Gas is $7/gallon! Only just today here in Los Angeles I saw regular in the west end of the San Fernando Valley at $5.19/gallon. In California.

The Republicans took the election for granted. And when the tide began to shift, even if only to the limited degree it has, they weren’t really prepared for it.

Trump may be pulling in a million a day as a future indictee for national security violations, but Blake Masters, and JD Vance, and the rest of them aren’t.

And the next round of January 6 hearings are three weeks away.

Do you want your ponies and rainbows? Get a 52-seat Democratic Senate and keep the House. Nobody will worry about Joe Biden’s age in 2024 after everything is delivered next year.

As the Old Navy Chief used to say, “Off your dead asses and onto your dying feet! There’s work to be done!”

UPDATE: Mark Kelly leads Blake McMasters 50-42 in Arizona according to Fox News poll:

Kelly’s support is just shy of his 2020 vote share when he narrowly beat Republican Martha McSally (51.2% to 48.8%). 

Kelly’s lead comes from 95% support among Democrats.  Masters fails to garner the same party loyalty, as only 82% of Republicans back him, with more than a handful defecting to Kelly (10%).

Voters ages 65 and over (+15) and rural voters (+8), two groups that have leaned more conservative in the past, put their support behind the Democrat.  Men (+8) and White evangelical Christians (+49) break for the Republican.

A sign of trouble for the GOP can be found in voters without a college degree, which has become an important Republican voting bloc is split 45%/46% between Kelly and Masters.

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