I am using the title of John Reed’s first-person account of the Bolshevik Revolution of November 1917 as the title of this post because the truly momentous events of the past 24 hours in Russia hold the possibility of becoming the most important event in Russian history since the Revolutions of 1917 and are only comparable to that event.
I'm guessing Prigozhen is already dead as of 6"45 PM EST, Saturday. The Belarus "deal" is a sham, Wagner groupies will not be safe in Belarus because 20K Russian troops are there to deal with them while they are leaderless. Apparently the Wagners couldn't amass any real support from Russian citizens along their way to Moscow and saw the hopelessness of it. After all, Russians have long been conditioned to live without hope.
This is a very dangerous time with a humiliated megalomaniac with his sweaty finger on the nuke buttons. Americans need to pay close attention. And thank Joe Biden for maintaining a low profile throughout this episode so Putin can't blame the Wagner revolt on the West. Joe has been the right man for these times.
Many of the photos and videos of Prigozhen's forces marching toward Moscow showed citizens standing in a garden with a hoe or on a corner with shopping bags barely bothering to turn around to look. I expect they figure their lives will be little affected by which murdering thug is actually in the Kremlin.
It's like that cartoon where the Russian standing in a long line to shop becomes angry at conditions and storms off "to shoot Putin" but shortly returns. "Why?" asks someone else. "The other line was even longer" he replies. The Russian citizen has little hope for change, little training in genuine participation in their government, and thus little interest in the storms that rage back and forth across the mountain tops, expecting there will be some fallout but no big change in climate. I remember Gorbachev with the sad regret of lost opportunity and would find it hard to trust the Russian people not to "vote" in their next autocrat.
Foreign Affairs has a very interesting article a few days old (I assume prompted by Prigozhin's messages challenging upper level military officials even before they may or may not have responded with missiles) titled "The Treacherous Path to a Better Russia" which says "Since the end of the Cold War, authoritarian regimes have outlasted 89 percent of the longtime leaders who died in office. And in every instance in which an authoritarian leader’s death led to the collapse of his regime, its replacement was also authoritarian. Even in personalist autocracies, where the question of succession is considerably fraught, the same regime has survived the leader’s death 83 percent of the time." One would generally then expect Putin to retain power even if Prigozhin had continued on the march and demanded removal of some of the military leadership... to better support dear Leader.
Prigozhen is not dead yet, although his time may be coming, he is not done. People in the streets were calling 'Wagner' as his troops were headed to Moscow. Prigozchen's relationship to Putin is for the books. Can Putin maintain control of it? Putin has come out the weakest, next to Russia, which is below its knees. Yes, a very dangerous time indeed. The regime may be collapsing as Yehawes suggested in his comment.
The purge starts when something of highest value to the purported leader of the opposition is found. What would make General P stop, turn around, and go to Belarus on the thinnest of promises of immunity? His children or family or empire is in the hands of the FSB or Putin? Names are already taken. The "disappeared" will start. His followers, at best, will go to the front lines as fodder in Putin's war on the Ukrain, you think? Will we ever hear from Private P?
If Putin presides over the dissolution of Wagner, he will lose the only really effective fighting force he has in Ukraine..... Long-term, this could be an advantage to Ukraine.
Unsettled, rogue state...I see the colors of black, grey and blood red; uninviting as representative of life in Russia. For Putin...make those colors even more bleak. It is impossible to find a pair of rose colored glasses. That the future is more promising for Ukraine is a small pocket of great relief next to the pain and suffering of the Russian people.
There was also a revolution in 1905 after the Russian Navy's defeats in Tsushima Strait and Port Arthur and land defeats in Manchuria. Tsar Nicholas II was not deposed but was forced to introduce a new constitution, allow multiple political parties, and set up a national legislature, the Duma. In the end the Tsar never truly gave up power and World War I was the catalyst for his deposition.
I'm already seeing rightwingers and right curious asserting that the U.S. is intervening, without proof of course. The nontruths are already starting their trip around the world.
TC, this article was excellent and for the most part easy to understand. Such elucidation of the historical and current situation in Russia was good for a continued subscription to That's Another Fine Mess. Thank you.
'U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was plotting Russia uprising'
'The intelligence fed concerns about whether Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability could mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal' (WAPO)
This does not surprise me. The Russian military in Ukraine showed many signs of an out of order operation, top to bottom. No functioning government can have a military like that. Of course, it draws my attention to our unhealthy country, and the problems aren't only obesity and fentanyl.
I read Ruth's essay before yours today Tom. Sobering is a mild descriptor. This is going to play out and no-one knows just how, it could be a disgruntled lone actor or maybe the Generals decide that they have had enough, either way chaos is likely to play a very strong hand with a lot of nuclear weapons thrown into the mix. What we are watching, in all likelihood, was set in motion the day that putin invaded Ukraine, all along I have thought that he was iniating his own death sentence and we may be about to witness it. Russia seems to be too big to govern except by an iron hand, and we may see it fracture into ethnically exclusive zones, time will tell, there will be a lot of score settling in the meantime. What goes around comes around as they say.
1. All is as it appears and Prigohzin set off towards Moscow determined to kill Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, possibly with backing from others for a potential regime change if necessary.
2. "This situation was all an unfortunate misunderstanding."
3. It's a trap! A cunning plan cooked up between Prigohzin and Putin to entice Ukrainian forces rushing into an overextended position or positions on counter offensive. Knowing that the Ukrainians are being gifted satellite sourced and other intel, the various pieces of military equipment maneuvering around small areas of the map (including near the Kremlin) may be staged movements supporting the narrative around what could be Wagner forces relocating for pre-planned R&R. A totally bloodless capitulation with zero opposition? Easy to arrange the narrative when you control all media.
TC, You did a nice job explaining the current situation and putting the times into historical perspective. Thanks. I’m glad you got your electronics functioning again. Tech malfunctions always make me realize how vulnerable we are to the electrical power grid and maintenance of our gadgets.
I’m honestly getting sick and tired of all this historical shit during these times. I guess that’s what I get for always wishing I could have experienced the 60’s. Ugh.
During and since the Pandemic, Putin has been isolated. The military failings and battlefield assessments may conflict with information from Wagner and Prigozin ( they have a relationship going back to St. Petersburg days). The contradictions could have created a big rif among the different factions but really acute within the spy/intel services that Putin used to lead. We witnessed that by Prigozin’s public criticism of the Army for months. Why couldn’t Putin keep him under wraps and within back channels? Whatever the reasons, power must be reordering/reorganizing/shifting. And it never ends well for Dictators.
One thing to remember about it "nevr ending well for dictators": 83% of authoritarian regimes in which the dictator falls to the side, he is replaced by another authoritarian. Democratic outcomes are rare,
U got me thinking more. Russia has no succession plan, and never has in its history, so any challenge to Putin’s power is destabilizing. Putin’s fear was a developing democracy in Ukraine. That’s to close. Winning the war and maintaining a democratic Ukraine, most likely means Belarusians and Russian people will yearn for the same. That could take decades, or maybe days. The Russian people won’t start an uprising when they have no idea what is really going on. If Prigozin’s dose of reality lands and people begin to protest in the streets, Putin will respond with a crackdown. How the people respond will inform us how long he can last.
Seems like things are moving (or not moving) as the case may be quite quickly. The two p's are criminals, no doubt about that. The last I read on Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent was that the chef p was halting his march to Moscow (Lukashenko had a talk with him?! is being reported). But where is little p? As President Zelenskyy stated in his nightly address, "Do not fear russia." In essence keep doing what needs doing but do it as quickly as possible. I just hope dear Jens is not hiding in a bathroom somewhere. The times are - they are a-changing but in what ways? Hang on to your seats.
I'm guessing Prigozhen is already dead as of 6"45 PM EST, Saturday. The Belarus "deal" is a sham, Wagner groupies will not be safe in Belarus because 20K Russian troops are there to deal with them while they are leaderless. Apparently the Wagners couldn't amass any real support from Russian citizens along their way to Moscow and saw the hopelessness of it. After all, Russians have long been conditioned to live without hope.
This is a very dangerous time with a humiliated megalomaniac with his sweaty finger on the nuke buttons. Americans need to pay close attention. And thank Joe Biden for maintaining a low profile throughout this episode so Putin can't blame the Wagner revolt on the West. Joe has been the right man for these times.
A very interesting analysis. I think you may be right.
Many of the photos and videos of Prigozhen's forces marching toward Moscow showed citizens standing in a garden with a hoe or on a corner with shopping bags barely bothering to turn around to look. I expect they figure their lives will be little affected by which murdering thug is actually in the Kremlin.
It's like that cartoon where the Russian standing in a long line to shop becomes angry at conditions and storms off "to shoot Putin" but shortly returns. "Why?" asks someone else. "The other line was even longer" he replies. The Russian citizen has little hope for change, little training in genuine participation in their government, and thus little interest in the storms that rage back and forth across the mountain tops, expecting there will be some fallout but no big change in climate. I remember Gorbachev with the sad regret of lost opportunity and would find it hard to trust the Russian people not to "vote" in their next autocrat.
Foreign Affairs has a very interesting article a few days old (I assume prompted by Prigozhin's messages challenging upper level military officials even before they may or may not have responded with missiles) titled "The Treacherous Path to a Better Russia" which says "Since the end of the Cold War, authoritarian regimes have outlasted 89 percent of the longtime leaders who died in office. And in every instance in which an authoritarian leader’s death led to the collapse of his regime, its replacement was also authoritarian. Even in personalist autocracies, where the question of succession is considerably fraught, the same regime has survived the leader’s death 83 percent of the time." One would generally then expect Putin to retain power even if Prigozhin had continued on the march and demanded removal of some of the military leadership... to better support dear Leader.
Prigozhen is not dead yet, although his time may be coming, he is not done. People in the streets were calling 'Wagner' as his troops were headed to Moscow. Prigozchen's relationship to Putin is for the books. Can Putin maintain control of it? Putin has come out the weakest, next to Russia, which is below its knees. Yes, a very dangerous time indeed. The regime may be collapsing as Yehawes suggested in his comment.
The purge starts when something of highest value to the purported leader of the opposition is found. What would make General P stop, turn around, and go to Belarus on the thinnest of promises of immunity? His children or family or empire is in the hands of the FSB or Putin? Names are already taken. The "disappeared" will start. His followers, at best, will go to the front lines as fodder in Putin's war on the Ukrain, you think? Will we ever hear from Private P?
More questions we can't answer yet.
If Putin presides over the dissolution of Wagner, he will lose the only really effective fighting force he has in Ukraine..... Long-term, this could be an advantage to Ukraine.
Unsettled, rogue state...I see the colors of black, grey and blood red; uninviting as representative of life in Russia. For Putin...make those colors even more bleak. It is impossible to find a pair of rose colored glasses. That the future is more promising for Ukraine is a small pocket of great relief next to the pain and suffering of the Russian people.
There was also a revolution in 1905 after the Russian Navy's defeats in Tsushima Strait and Port Arthur and land defeats in Manchuria. Tsar Nicholas II was not deposed but was forced to introduce a new constitution, allow multiple political parties, and set up a national legislature, the Duma. In the end the Tsar never truly gave up power and World War I was the catalyst for his deposition.
I'm already seeing rightwingers and right curious asserting that the U.S. is intervening, without proof of course. The nontruths are already starting their trip around the world.
Of course they are.
Thank Goodness Biden is President.
This does not sound good.
SNAFU AND FUBAR all rolled into one.
TC, this article was excellent and for the most part easy to understand. Such elucidation of the historical and current situation in Russia was good for a continued subscription to That's Another Fine Mess. Thank you.
Thank you very much!
What Andrea said!
Andrea, totally agree.
As I remarked to a friend and immediately forwarded this to others, TCL has knocked the Russian history ball out of the park.
I’ve thought my education was very good. Maybe broadly speaking, but definitely not as refined as I’d imagined.
This one’s another treasured keeper.
We're lucky my Asperger's interest field is history.
We haven't heard the last of this. "When plotting revenge, dig two graves."
I hate interesting times…
it's neither ancient nor Chinese, but it is a curse.
that makes at least two of us.
trying to imagine the many ways that TFF could--and WOULD--fuck this up if he were POTUS is something my brain will not sustain.
'U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was plotting Russia uprising'
'The intelligence fed concerns about whether Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability could mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal' (WAPO)
This does not surprise me. The Russian military in Ukraine showed many signs of an out of order operation, top to bottom. No functioning government can have a military like that. Of course, it draws my attention to our unhealthy country, and the problems aren't only obesity and fentanyl.
I read Ruth's essay before yours today Tom. Sobering is a mild descriptor. This is going to play out and no-one knows just how, it could be a disgruntled lone actor or maybe the Generals decide that they have had enough, either way chaos is likely to play a very strong hand with a lot of nuclear weapons thrown into the mix. What we are watching, in all likelihood, was set in motion the day that putin invaded Ukraine, all along I have thought that he was iniating his own death sentence and we may be about to witness it. Russia seems to be too big to govern except by an iron hand, and we may see it fracture into ethnically exclusive zones, time will tell, there will be a lot of score settling in the meantime. What goes around comes around as they say.
I see three possible scenarios unfolding:
1. All is as it appears and Prigohzin set off towards Moscow determined to kill Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, possibly with backing from others for a potential regime change if necessary.
2. "This situation was all an unfortunate misunderstanding."
3. It's a trap! A cunning plan cooked up between Prigohzin and Putin to entice Ukrainian forces rushing into an overextended position or positions on counter offensive. Knowing that the Ukrainians are being gifted satellite sourced and other intel, the various pieces of military equipment maneuvering around small areas of the map (including near the Kremlin) may be staged movements supporting the narrative around what could be Wagner forces relocating for pre-planned R&R. A totally bloodless capitulation with zero opposition? Easy to arrange the narrative when you control all media.
Russians love complicated plans.
Slight note of sarcasm there TC?
My imagination had the 3rd scenario plan originating from Prigly not Putler..
"I got got you Bakhmut doing it their way and it took six fucking months. Let me get Kiev my way, which they failed to do too, da?"
This was a really good historical article, Tom.
TC, You did a nice job explaining the current situation and putting the times into historical perspective. Thanks. I’m glad you got your electronics functioning again. Tech malfunctions always make me realize how vulnerable we are to the electrical power grid and maintenance of our gadgets.
Fascinating! Scary! Thank you.
I’m honestly getting sick and tired of all this historical shit during these times. I guess that’s what I get for always wishing I could have experienced the 60’s. Ugh.
TC, has any of the experts commented that maybe it was Putin directing Prigozin versus the military leadership that Putin has been frustrated by?
With Wagner’s vacuum is Ukraine taking advantage? Could that be a trap? Or is it opportunity?
Nobody appears to know the answers to those important questions.
During and since the Pandemic, Putin has been isolated. The military failings and battlefield assessments may conflict with information from Wagner and Prigozin ( they have a relationship going back to St. Petersburg days). The contradictions could have created a big rif among the different factions but really acute within the spy/intel services that Putin used to lead. We witnessed that by Prigozin’s public criticism of the Army for months. Why couldn’t Putin keep him under wraps and within back channels? Whatever the reasons, power must be reordering/reorganizing/shifting. And it never ends well for Dictators.
One thing to remember about it "nevr ending well for dictators": 83% of authoritarian regimes in which the dictator falls to the side, he is replaced by another authoritarian. Democratic outcomes are rare,
U got me thinking more. Russia has no succession plan, and never has in its history, so any challenge to Putin’s power is destabilizing. Putin’s fear was a developing democracy in Ukraine. That’s to close. Winning the war and maintaining a democratic Ukraine, most likely means Belarusians and Russian people will yearn for the same. That could take decades, or maybe days. The Russian people won’t start an uprising when they have no idea what is really going on. If Prigozin’s dose of reality lands and people begin to protest in the streets, Putin will respond with a crackdown. How the people respond will inform us how long he can last.
Outstanding commentary, Tom. Thanks for keeping us so well informed.
Seems like things are moving (or not moving) as the case may be quite quickly. The two p's are criminals, no doubt about that. The last I read on Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent was that the chef p was halting his march to Moscow (Lukashenko had a talk with him?! is being reported). But where is little p? As President Zelenskyy stated in his nightly address, "Do not fear russia." In essence keep doing what needs doing but do it as quickly as possible. I just hope dear Jens is not hiding in a bathroom somewhere. The times are - they are a-changing but in what ways? Hang on to your seats.