During and since the Pandemic, Putin has been isolated. The military failings and battlefield assessments may conflict with information from Wagner and Prigozin ( they have a relationship going back to St. Petersburg days). The contradictions could have created a big rif among the different factions but really acute within the spy/intel services that Putin used to lead. We witnessed that by Prigozin’s public criticism of the Army for months. Why couldn’t Putin keep him under wraps and within back channels? Whatever the reasons, power must be reordering/reorganizing/shifting. And it never ends well for Dictators.
One thing to remember about it "nevr ending well for dictators": 83% of authoritarian regimes in which the dictator falls to the side, he is replaced by another authoritarian. Democratic outcomes are rare,
U got me thinking more. Russia has no succession plan, and never has in its history, so any challenge to Putin’s power is destabilizing. Putin’s fear was a developing democracy in Ukraine. That’s to close. Winning the war and maintaining a democratic Ukraine, most likely means Belarusians and Russian people will yearn for the same. That could take decades, or maybe days. The Russian people won’t start an uprising when they have no idea what is really going on. If Prigozin’s dose of reality lands and people begin to protest in the streets, Putin will respond with a crackdown. How the people respond will inform us how long he can last.
Nobody appears to know the answers to those important questions.
During and since the Pandemic, Putin has been isolated. The military failings and battlefield assessments may conflict with information from Wagner and Prigozin ( they have a relationship going back to St. Petersburg days). The contradictions could have created a big rif among the different factions but really acute within the spy/intel services that Putin used to lead. We witnessed that by Prigozin’s public criticism of the Army for months. Why couldn’t Putin keep him under wraps and within back channels? Whatever the reasons, power must be reordering/reorganizing/shifting. And it never ends well for Dictators.
One thing to remember about it "nevr ending well for dictators": 83% of authoritarian regimes in which the dictator falls to the side, he is replaced by another authoritarian. Democratic outcomes are rare,
U got me thinking more. Russia has no succession plan, and never has in its history, so any challenge to Putin’s power is destabilizing. Putin’s fear was a developing democracy in Ukraine. That’s to close. Winning the war and maintaining a democratic Ukraine, most likely means Belarusians and Russian people will yearn for the same. That could take decades, or maybe days. The Russian people won’t start an uprising when they have no idea what is really going on. If Prigozin’s dose of reality lands and people begin to protest in the streets, Putin will respond with a crackdown. How the people respond will inform us how long he can last.