TEN DAYS THAT SHOOK THE WORLD? (major update)

I am using the title of John Reed’s first-person account of the Bolshevik Revolution of November 1917 as the title of this post because the truly momentous events of the past 24 hours in Russia hold the possibility of becoming the most important event in Russian history since the Revolutions of 1917 and are only comparable to that event.

Notice that I wrote “revolutions,” plural. 1917 saw two revolutions in Russia - one that was potentially progressive, and the other leading to the 70+ years of repression by the Communist Party. These current events have the possibility of both outcomes.

World War I has always been the proper historical metaphor for understanding events in Russia since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Both conflicts were unpopular with the Russian people; in both conflicts the Russian Army demonstrated its incompetence; and now in both conflicts, that incompetence led to “momentous events.”

In World War I, the Russian Army quickly demonstrated the incompetence of its leadership and the poor state of affairs with its troops with the massive defeat at the Battle of Tannenberg in August 1914 at the outset of the war. This is analogous to the Russian Army’s defeat at Kyiv within the first month of the Ukraine war. Between Tannenberg and March 1917, the Russian Army suffered more defeats at the hands of the German Army, just as the modern Russian Army has suffered defeats by the Ukrainian Army. Poor morale in the Russian Army grew in both conflicts, as troops questioned more and more the reasons why they were in a war at all.

In March 1917, the Russian Army mutinied when ordered to begin an offensive that was seen as poorly planned and likely to result in another failure. That mutiny led to the first political revolution the same month, which resulted in the “democratic” forces in Russia assuming power with the abdication of Czar Nicholas II and the installation of the Kerensky government, led by Aleksandr Kerensky, who had led the reform faction in the Duma. Unfortunately, Kerensky made the profound mistake of deciding to remain in the war to support the Western Allies. With the widespread unpopularity of the war among the population, this meant the progressive government could never achieve the level of support necessary for survival.

The first revolution was seen as an opportunity by the Bolsheviks. The party immediately announced support for peace and declared that Russia must quit the war, period. This policy resulted in the Bolsheviks gaining the popular support the Kerensky government lacked, leading to the Bolshevik Revolution in November.

Lenin’s first political move after taking power in Moscow was to get out of the war. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was signed in March 1918; the Bolsheviks ceded to Germany the territory the German Army occupied in the war. Fighting on the Eastern Front had essentially ended by the summer of 1917 when the Kerensky government realized they couldn’t continue. The peace negotiations that began in January 1918 allowed the Germans to begin shifting their forces from the Eastern to the Western Front.

That shift resulted in Operation Michael, the final German offensive in the West, which began in April 1918. The French and British were able to hold on by their fingernails, and contain the offensive by the end of June. Between August and the end of October 1918, the hardest fighting of the war on the Western Front occurred, resulting in the collapse of Germany with a popular revolution breaking out that overthrew Kaiser Wilhelm II.

World War I was followed by massive instability in eastern Europe as the Russian Civil War raged until 1922. Out of that came the formation of the independent Baltic States, and the re-emergence of Poland as an independent country after 150 years of dismemberment by the German, Austrian and Russian empires, all of which fell as a result of World War I. Czechoslovakia became independent along with Hungary, and Romania expanded its territory.

I bring all that up to demonstrate just how momentous the events in Russia during 1917 were in world history. And no one foresaw the outbreak of revolution in Russia in 1917 any more than anyone has predicted the events in Russia of the past 24 hours.

This event in Russia, like that of 1917, has been lit by a successful offensive by the opposing forces, in this case, Ukraine. The Russian Army’s spring offensive in Ukraine was a failure, leading to even greater loss of morale in the army. It also provoked the revolt by Prigozhin’s mercenary force, which had been the most effective military force on the Russian side in the war.

The Wagner Group is different from any other mercenary force in history. This is primarily due to the fact it controls massive resources. Prigozhin may be the second-richest man in Russia after Putin himself, from the control of resources (gold, blood diamonds, etc.) the Wagner Group gained from their interventions in Chad and the Central African Republic, paid to them by the authoritarian leaders they support on those countries. Thus, Prigozhin can pay for the gasoline his army is using in their drive toward Moscow, rather than taking it. He can pay off Russian military commanders not to oppose his move.

Over the past 24 hours, reports out of Russia are fragmentary and it is difficult to determine what is actually happening, but there are some possible conclusions that can be drawn from what information is available.

First and foremost is the success of the Wagner Group so far. They took Rostov-on-Don, which was the headquarters of the Russian Army forces fighting in Ukraine, without a shot. This means that either Russian Army units defected to them, or those forces stepped aside while their commanders waited to see the outcome. Most likely, both things happened.

There are multiple reports that there has been very little resistance from the FSB (the KGB successor), the National Guard, or the Army.

Taking Rostov-on-Don gave the rebels access to all the supplies there. This allows them to arm themselves to the maximum, including tanks and other armored weapons. The fact that Wagner moved first to secure supplies means that Prigozhin is as serious as a heart attack in making this move. He’s planning on more than a few days of combat.

Reports I have found from sources that appear to be knowledgeable say that Russian commander Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov escaped from Rostov, giving up without trying to rally his army to oppose the rebels. Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu has made no statements. This can be taken as indications that at least portions of the Army are no longer reliable, with units switching sides.

The next major military target, Voronezh - one third of the way from Rostov to Moscow - was taken by Wagner early this morning, again without fighting. This means that the Russian security forces inside the country are disintegrating as Wagner advances. "Military facilities in Voronezh are taken under the control of the Wagner PMC. The army switches to the side of the people," read a short statement from Wagner's Telegram channel.

Wagner’s control of the supplies for the Donbas group of forces means that the Russian Army in eastern Ukraine now has no support. They have been cut off in their rear.

Last night (our time), Igor Shushko, a Russian warblogger, reported: “The governors of Voronezh and Lipetsk regions are panicking. Lipetsk governor Artamonov is drunk. Almost no one in Moscow answers, they don’t know what to do.”

In Moscow, anti-terrorist measures aimed at strengthening security measures are being carried out. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has told the population to stay off the streets and not to gather in public. As Shusko said, “This is as close to martial law as you get, without calling it that.”

The fact that Putin made no public announcement until this morning means that the rebellion is more widespread. If it had failed almost immediately, he would have been on TV immediately. The word is that he is not in Moscow; last night a special flight of helicopters was seen over Moscow, including two with markings of the Presidential Flight. This means that most likely he is now at the enormous “dacha” he has created in Novo-Ogaryovo, which is defensible.

Where the events of 2023 differ from 1917 is that Russia has nuclear weapons. Russian doctrine is that if that state is at risk, nuclear weapons can be used. Would Putin order them used on Wagner? On Ukraine? It’s possible. There is now the added instability of the question whether the troops manning the strategic forces would obey that order, given how the Russian military appears to be fracturing.

Most observers say that the events between now and Monday will determine whether the rebellion fails, or whether a civil war becomes likely. Interestingly, Wagner Group is reported to be wearing white armbands, which were last seen in the White Army during the Russian Civil War in the aftermath of 1917.

In Ukraine, there is a strong possibility of a Russian Army withdrawal as a result of any Ukrainian success. The troops know they have no back-up or support. This moment holds the possibility of Ukraine regaining all its territory by the end of the summer.

So, what are the possibilities?

I see three. Right now, each is equally possible.

1. Putin regains control and suppresses the rebellion.

2. Russia continues to dissolve internally and civil war happens.

3. A popular revolution breaks out.

Choice Three would be the one we all should most desire. That can only happen if the West stays out of any involvement in what is happening now.

Ruth Ben-Ghiat pointed out in a post this morning that two ardent activists for democracy in Russia, former world Chess master Garry Kasparov, and exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky wrote an extraordinary piece for Foreign Affairs called “Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise” last year. They believe internal pressures from frustration about the war and Russian society may offer opportunities for the Russian people to embrace democracy. Kasparov and Khodorkovsky hope that a coalition of Russian opposition can bring about positive post-Putin change without chaos after a military defeat in Ukraine.

Interestingly, this morning Khodorkovsky wrote on his Telegram channel: “Now we see that only armed people can resist the dictatorship. Now there is a small window of opportunity when there is chaos on the streets and the security forces are not in control of the situation.” He said the dramatic standoff would likely result in further repression. “If you see the strength in yourself in the future to become those armed people who will oppose Putin or Prigozhin, then it’s time to arm yourself. Prigozhin is not our friend and not even our ally. He is a bandit and a war criminal. But his rebellion is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and there won’t be another like it for a long time.”

The possibility of civil war leads to a very dark potential future. As Ruth Ben-Ghiat wrote:

“On the other hand, it is not out of the realm of possibility that we could wake up to a world where Yevgeny Progozhin decided that maybe the atomic arsenal of Russia should be under the control of his private army, PMC Wagner. Or a world where the Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov has taken all the military equipment given to him by Russia and executes a plan for a nuclear-armed Russo-Islamic emirate that extends from Chechnya to Tatarstan. Such a rapid separation may in turn start a cascade of governors and generals who want their share of the post-Putin pie and ally themselves with an ambitious warlord. All these heretofore far-fetched plots require one precipitating event to be viable: Vladimir Putin killed by someone with the means to override all security precautions in Russia … or by dumb luck.

“There are several categories of Russian people and entities who would like to see Vladimir Putin removed from the earthly stage. The oligarchy is losing its vast streams of wealth well worth trillions of dollars with no end of global sanctions in sight. With an inability to travel globally, limited goods that money can purchase outside of Russia, and losing market share to the Chinese the oligarchy will eventually reach a breaking point. Applying a ten-cent bullet to stop a multitrillion-dollar hemorrhage may appeal to them. Although Putin controls them with personal intimidation, it may at some point become attractive for them to buy the strength and loyalty of the army and the national police. Additionally, Putin has set up several figures as his strongest supporters and empowered them with military capacity that could be turned against him.

“Strongmen such as Pregozhin and Kadyrov are practitioners of raw power. And they may sense a weakness in Putin where the oligarchy may support their willingness to change the government. But these strong men are just petty dictators themselves. Any application of power by them will result in the cooperation of military forces and would most likely lead to a civil war. No matter who decides to assert themselves, the Russian General Staff of the Armed Forces must be co-opted at the highest levels to bring that raw military power to a coup d'état.

“It is also inauspicious that Vladimir Putin recently humiliated some of the top power brokers in Russia, including the Director of Russian intelligence, the Commander of the Russian Armed Forces, General Gerasimov, and even the Commander of Russian Forces in Ukraine. The generals are powerful men who may have loyal subordinates, at least 300,000 men at arms, and strategic weapons under their control. Should the military commanders of Russia decide a change of command is necessary, it is their influence that could sway other generals and battle commanders to answer only to their commands.”

The possibility of the breakup of Russia into nuclear-armed warlord states - which are the most unstable kind of a government imaginable - would be the worst possible outcome of all this.

Having a monumentally important event like this happen in Russia while the major power in the West is polarized with political division between the forces of democracy and a pro-authoritarian movement as strong as MAGA is an additional cause for worry. Loss of support for Ukraine, or any Western intervention in internal Russian events, would be equally disastrous for a long-term positive outcome to all this.

Welcome to life “in ‘interesting’ times.”

MAJOR UPDATE - via AP:

The head of the private Russian military company Wagner will move to neighboring Belarus as part of deal to defuse rebellion tensions and the criminal case against him will be closed, the Kremlin said Saturday.

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s troops who joined him in the uprising will not face prosecution and those who did not will be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

After the deal was reached, Prigozhin said he was ordering his troops to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to field camps in Ukraine, where they have been fighting alongside Russian troops.

The deal appeared to defuse a dramatically escalating crisis that represented the most significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power.

The deal was mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a staunch Putin ally.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE.

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