LAST ELECTION POST TIL WEDNESDAY

There’s not much need to post anything about the election between now and Wednesday morning. Tomorrow and Tuesday I will post something to take your minds off the anxiety, non-politics.

But as a final note, here is some good news:

Polls are finally catching up with the evidence on the ground of Democratic over-overformance in voting since early voting began.

Democrats are voting at least at the rate they did in 2018, and there is an indication they are closing in on the voting rate of 2020.

This is not the case with Republicans.

Democrats are voting at 2020 levels in the following states:

Arizona, Iowa, Indiana, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, New York, Ohiom Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Georgia, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania are voting at higher levels than 2020 in the past three days.

Democrats have caught up to Republicans in election interest. An identical 73% of Democrats and Republicans express high interest, registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale.

In October’s NBC News poll, Republicans held a 9-point advantage in high voter interest, 78% to 69%, after Democrats had previously closed the enthusiasm gap following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Democrats are getting their voters out, and this is where the GOP strategy of relying on heavy election day turnout could haunt them. The conventional wisdom for the last two election cycles has been that Democrats vote early and Republicans vote on election day.

Remember the Red Mirage. Because Republicans tend to vote on election day in person now, and because those votes are tabulated first, it may appear at the end of Tuesday night that Republicans are ahead. There is a very good chance that the more extreme candidates may attempt to claim victory at this point, so that when the Blue wave appears with the later tabulation of mail-in votes and early votes and the tallies close, they can claim there is something nefarious going on.

Just hang on through the week, because it will likely take until Friday to get anything close to final tallies. Expect Republicans to claim fraud throughout the week. Expect extreme MAGAs to attempt to interfere with vote tabultion, as they did in Detroit in 2020.

Turnout is everything. Make sure everyone you know has voted and if they haven’t, do everything you can to help them get to the polls on Tuesday.

Whatever happens, there is not going to be a Red Wave.

Pay no attention to “polls” that are released in the next 24 hours. These are most likely Republican scam polls. Over the weekend I have received three e-mail “voter surveys” that start out sounding like normal with their questions, then by question 6 they are asking, if Republicans win, should Democrats be allowed to legislate in the lame duck session. That’s going to be the big Republican argument should they win a majority, that the Democrats should not “disrespect the voters” by doing things like passing debt ceiling payments in the lame duck to keep the hostage-takers from shooting the country next year.

Pay no attention to them. (When I realized what these were, I “returned them” with a message that should should leave them looking like the guy who opened the door to the blast furnace after they open the email. Fuck’m)

Now’s the time to just stand firm.

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