The past 96 hours have truly witnessed a turnaround in the Ukrainian war of national resistance to the Russian invaders. On Saturday, the Russian Ministry of Defense formally acknowledged the retreat in its own way: “In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas, a decision has been made to regroup the Russian troops deployed in the Balakliya and Izium districts.” Given the abundant evidence of a hasty Russian flight, with weapons and equipment left behind, this sounds like “Baghdad Bob”-level bullshit.
Rumour has it that their rapid advance, the AFU are running into serious logistic problems. They are running out of Ukrainian flags to raise in the liberated villages.
AFU is currently attacking Lysychansk and sweeping around towards Sievierodonetsk. All the blood spilled by the Russian military in taking those cities will be fore nothing an a couple days.
The weird thing is that north of Donetsk city the Russians are still shelling and making frontal attacks as if nothing has changed. They don't get far.
Yes, the Kherson area is seeing rapid changes. The Russian military on the west bank of the Dnipro river have pulled back so they can be covered by artillery on the east bank. There are currently negotiations for surrender of some units though how many, I don't know. They are running out of food.
The rainy season has started. It has been raining at home for the past two days. Tanya said that all day yesterday, last night, and again today Russian missiles have been flying over head. They are doing their best to terrorize and destroy civilians even if they can't fight, she said. Some are being shot down by Ukrainian air defense. One so close that our house shook.
There are pro-Russian people in Zhovti Vody who are claiming that the American military is why the Russians are loosing. Tanya told one of them to go to Russia, using not nice words she said. I love that woman.
The expressions on the faces of Ukrainian men, women and children in the liberated regions tells you exactly what Ukrainians experienced of Russian occupation. There is still a long way to go, and the western democracies must not back down from supplying all that the Ukrainians will need to push Russia out of their country and back within their own borders. It is fascinating to read of political leadership in Moscow and St. Petersburg (city leadership) publishing a public statement demanding Putin resign. No chance of that. A good chance the signatories will find themselves rounded up and put in a basement somewhere. But the statement from Mr. Fukuyama says so much. Now it is important not to get carried away but to do all we can by supporting with money Ukrainian civic organizations as well as making sure our own government does not flag. And recently, there have been gop "leaders" suggesting the US has done enough. I'd say this presents one more reason NOT to vote for any gop candidates.
As Putin fails and it becomes obvious...those who wondered what the point of the war was may decide that they have had enough. Combine national shame and embarrassment with Russians in body bags and sanctions...
And then there are all the fired generals and advisors...anything is possible.
Terrific news on the Western Front. Looks like the conscript army is folding somewhat. And the Chechen leader doesn't sound happy with Putin. How significant (or accurate) is the Brit. news report that several thousand Chechen soldiers have been sent to Moscow (to reinforce security for UKW)?
The media in Russia are so calibrated for Russian victory that they don't know what to do with the setbacks. I saw several clips on Twitter of obviously agitated on-air personalities trying to spin it favorably for Russia but not doing it convincingly at all. That, plus news that will inevitably reach the public from Kharkiv and the northeast, may severely compromise Putin's legitimacy. We might be looking at 1905 all over again.
And consider the effect upon the Chinese Communist Party. Xi appears to have picked the wrong horse. What might that do to the strength of his support for another term as emperor (or whatever the hell they call it), when he exhibits such poor judgment? Supporting the “special military operation” is not truly linked to a national interest of China; rather it is Xi personally backing a strong man ruler to justify strong man ruler as a governing form generally. I suspect the senior Party cadre are not that invested in strong man rule as opposed to Party rule consistent with Party dogma.
And, of course, the question of Taiwan. Ukrainian success, and Putin surrounding himself with Cossacks to stave off an uprising, must give Xi and the CCP pause.
Smell test of Putin; a tug of war within Russia about how to proceed with the war against Ukraine and/or is it time to measure Russia’s political heat index?
‘While some urged the Kremlin to start peace negotiations, others demanded that its forces double down. The divergence of views, even on tightly controlled state television networks, highlighted how Moscow’s narrative has quickly shifted from a conviction that it was only a matter of time before Russia subjugated Ukraine to a sense of alarm over the rapid progress of Kyiv’s forces. And it was a contrast from the muted response after Russia’s drive to take Kyiv failed in the spring.’
“We have been dealt a very serious psychological blow,” said Aleksandr Kazakov, a member of the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament. “We must destroy the infrastructure that is being used for military purposes.”
'Others questioned the main ideological pretext that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia used to launch the invasion — that Russians and Ukrainians constitute one nation. (NYTimes) Gifted ink to live updates below.
Rumour has it that their rapid advance, the AFU are running into serious logistic problems. They are running out of Ukrainian flags to raise in the liberated villages.
AFU is currently attacking Lysychansk and sweeping around towards Sievierodonetsk. All the blood spilled by the Russian military in taking those cities will be fore nothing an a couple days.
The weird thing is that north of Donetsk city the Russians are still shelling and making frontal attacks as if nothing has changed. They don't get far.
Yes, the Kherson area is seeing rapid changes. The Russian military on the west bank of the Dnipro river have pulled back so they can be covered by artillery on the east bank. There are currently negotiations for surrender of some units though how many, I don't know. They are running out of food.
The rainy season has started. It has been raining at home for the past two days. Tanya said that all day yesterday, last night, and again today Russian missiles have been flying over head. They are doing their best to terrorize and destroy civilians even if they can't fight, she said. Some are being shot down by Ukrainian air defense. One so close that our house shook.
There are pro-Russian people in Zhovti Vody who are claiming that the American military is why the Russians are loosing. Tanya told one of them to go to Russia, using not nice words she said. I love that woman.
The expressions on the faces of Ukrainian men, women and children in the liberated regions tells you exactly what Ukrainians experienced of Russian occupation. There is still a long way to go, and the western democracies must not back down from supplying all that the Ukrainians will need to push Russia out of their country and back within their own borders. It is fascinating to read of political leadership in Moscow and St. Petersburg (city leadership) publishing a public statement demanding Putin resign. No chance of that. A good chance the signatories will find themselves rounded up and put in a basement somewhere. But the statement from Mr. Fukuyama says so much. Now it is important not to get carried away but to do all we can by supporting with money Ukrainian civic organizations as well as making sure our own government does not flag. And recently, there have been gop "leaders" suggesting the US has done enough. I'd say this presents one more reason NOT to vote for any gop candidates.
As Putin fails and it becomes obvious...those who wondered what the point of the war was may decide that they have had enough. Combine national shame and embarrassment with Russians in body bags and sanctions...
And then there are all the fired generals and advisors...anything is possible.
Terrific news on the Western Front. Looks like the conscript army is folding somewhat. And the Chechen leader doesn't sound happy with Putin. How significant (or accurate) is the Brit. news report that several thousand Chechen soldiers have been sent to Moscow (to reinforce security for UKW)?
The media in Russia are so calibrated for Russian victory that they don't know what to do with the setbacks. I saw several clips on Twitter of obviously agitated on-air personalities trying to spin it favorably for Russia but not doing it convincingly at all. That, plus news that will inevitably reach the public from Kharkiv and the northeast, may severely compromise Putin's legitimacy. We might be looking at 1905 all over again.
And consider the effect upon the Chinese Communist Party. Xi appears to have picked the wrong horse. What might that do to the strength of his support for another term as emperor (or whatever the hell they call it), when he exhibits such poor judgment? Supporting the “special military operation” is not truly linked to a national interest of China; rather it is Xi personally backing a strong man ruler to justify strong man ruler as a governing form generally. I suspect the senior Party cadre are not that invested in strong man rule as opposed to Party rule consistent with Party dogma.
And, of course, the question of Taiwan. Ukrainian success, and Putin surrounding himself with Cossacks to stave off an uprising, must give Xi and the CCP pause.
Smell test of Putin; a tug of war within Russia about how to proceed with the war against Ukraine and/or is it time to measure Russia’s political heat index?
‘While some urged the Kremlin to start peace negotiations, others demanded that its forces double down. The divergence of views, even on tightly controlled state television networks, highlighted how Moscow’s narrative has quickly shifted from a conviction that it was only a matter of time before Russia subjugated Ukraine to a sense of alarm over the rapid progress of Kyiv’s forces. And it was a contrast from the muted response after Russia’s drive to take Kyiv failed in the spring.’
“We have been dealt a very serious psychological blow,” said Aleksandr Kazakov, a member of the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament. “We must destroy the infrastructure that is being used for military purposes.”
'Others questioned the main ideological pretext that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia used to launch the invasion — that Russians and Ukrainians constitute one nation. (NYTimes) Gifted ink to live updates below.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/12/world/ukraine-russia-war?
When is Putin getting the smell test?
As Putin falls, what mechanism exists to prevent him from saying “Fu&k it, I’m taking all of you with me?”