IT SMELLS LIKE VICTORY

The past 96 hours have truly witnessed a turnaround in the Ukrainian war of national resistance to the Russian invaders.

On Saturday, the Russian Ministry of Defense formally acknowledged the retreat in its own way: “In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas, a decision has been made to regroup the Russian troops deployed in the Balakliya and Izium districts.” Given the abundant evidence of a hasty Russian flight, with weapons and equipment left behind, this sounds like “Baghdad Bob”-level bullshit.

On Sunday, the Ukrainian government said its forces had retaken over retaken over 3,000 square kilometers (1,100 square miles) of territory; these claims are still unconfirmed, but the Institute for the Study of War also tracks stunning Ukrainian gains:

On Saturday night, the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a video in which he announed, “The Russian army in these days is demonstrating the best that it can do — showing its back. And, of course, it’s a good decision for them to run.”

And it’s not just in the Kharkiv region.

The Ukrainian military claimed on Monday that it had retaken more territory in the south and was reiterating calls for Russian units fighting west of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region to surrender.

As Ukraine makes advances in the northeast of the country, its military has been carrying out another campaign in the south. There, thousands of Russian soldiers west of the Dnipro River appear to be increasingly isolated as Ukrainian attacks erode Russian defenses and shell bridges over the river, cutting the Russians off from resupply.

This morning, the Institute for the Study of War reported that “Ukraine has decisively won the Battle of Kharkiv Oblast, recovering its territory northwest, north, and northeast of the city and ending the Russian ground and artillery threat to Ukraine’s second-largest city.”

The ISW analysis continues:

“The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS.

“Kyiv’s long discussion and then an announcement of a counter-offensive operation aimed at Kherson Oblast drew substantial Russian troops away from the sectors on which Ukrainian forces have conducted decisive attacks in the past several days.

“Ukraine’s armed forces employed HIMARS and other Western systems to attack Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, setting conditions for the success of this operation. Ukrainian leaders discussed the strikes in the south much more ostentatiously, however, successfully confusing the Russians about their intentions in Kharkiv Oblast.

“Western weapons systems were necessary but not sufficient to secure success for Ukraine. The Ukrainian employment of those systems in a well-designed and well-executed campaign has generated the remarkable success of the counter-offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast.”

Francis Fukuyama wrote in the Journal of Democracy about the larger meaning of a Ukrainian victory:

“If the Ukrainians don’t simply hold out against Russia but actually defeat Russia’s massive army and force it to retreat, the positive reverberations will be felt across the globe. Populist nationalists around the world, from Viktor Orbán to Matteo Salvini to Marine Le Pen to Donald Trump, have expressed admiration for Putin’s style of strongman rule. A Russian defeat and humiliation will puncture this narrative of the advantages of authoritarian government, and might lead to a rekindling of democratic self-confidence. It has been easy for publics in Western democracies to take for granted the peace and prosperity brought about by the liberal world order. It may be the case that every generation needs to relearn the lesson that the alternatives to liberal democracy lead to violence, repression, and ultimately economic failure. Such a lesson will be driven home if the world sees brave Ukrainians fighting for their country succeed beyond all expectations.”

On Saturday, even as Russian soldiers were getting pounded in Ukraine, Putin took the time to speak, via video, at the opening of a new Ferris wheel in Moscow—which has the distinction of being the largest in Europe and is called “The Sun of Moscow.” Alas, on the day of its debut, the wheel stopped several times, leaving unhappy riders stuck as high as 460 feet above ground.  On Sunday, the wheel was temporarily closed to visitors for “recalibration.” This is what the ancients used to call “an omen.”

With all the good news, it is important to also remember this from the ISW:

“The current counter-offensive will not end the war. The campaign in northeast Ukraine will eventually culminate, allowing the Russians to re-establish a tenable defensive line and possibly even conduct localized counterattacks. Ukraine will have to launch subsequent counter-offensive operations, likely several, to finish the liberation of Russian-occupied territory. The war remains likely to stretch into 2023.”

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