ABORTION AND THE 2022 MID-TERM

In the midst of all the doom and gloom about the prospects of Democrats in November, there are some green shoots poking up through the snow, harbingers of better outcomes - if they’re properly cared for and nurtured (a polite way of saying get your ass out there and work! work! work! and with luck, things may turn out better than expected.

Polls conducted over the months leading up to the Supreme Court’s overruling Roe v. Wade, that the resurgent abortion issue would probably help Democrats in the midterms.

The results are showing up. With November 3 four months away - an eternity in politics - the early evidence from public opinion research is clear: Every poll taken in the now two weeks since Dobbs shows a significant boost for Democrats.

That doesn’t mean sit back and exhale in relief.

The evidence is clear at this point: The court’s overreach is energizing Democrats more than Republicans.

In a CBS News/YouGov survey taken on June 24 and 25 - the day of the decision and the day after - 50 percent of Democrats said the decision to overturn Roe made them more likely to vote in the midterms. Among Republicans, the number was only 20 percent.

A Marist/NPR/PBS poll found almost the same gap: by 24 percentage points, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say that the ruling increased their likelihood of voting.

While many Republicans were already eager to vote based on other issues like inflation, which could mean their enthusiasm didn’t have much growth room left, they didn’t say that the abortion ruling would add to their motivation. That makes sense, since voters tend to be motivated by anger, not satisfaction. The simple explanation for the partisan gap in polls is that this has alarmed pro-choice voters, not pro-life voters.

The polls also show that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to name abortion as their top issue.

In a Yahoo News/YouGov survey taken from June 24 to 27, abortion was the most important issue in this year’s election for 17 percent of Democrats, exceeded only by those who listed saving democracy as the most important. Only 5 percent of Republicans listed abortion as their highest priority. 51 percent of Republicans listed inflation as their top issue. Inflation hits Democratic voters, too, but one in six said abortion was more important.

Democrats are more likely to base their voting decisions on this issue than are Republicans. In a Politico/Morning Consult poll taken on June 24 and 25, Republicans were more willing than Democrats to tolerate candidates who disagreed with them on abortion. Democrats by a 16 point margin said it was more important to set aside other issues to vote for a candidate who “agrees with my stance on abortion access, even if they disagree with me on other issues.” Republicans by a 10-point margin said it was more important to vote for a candidate who “agrees with my stance on most issues, even if they disagree with my stance on abortion access.” When respondents were divided by abortion position rather than by party, pro-choice voters were less tolerant of dissent than were pro-life voters.

Economist/YouGov polls taken June 25-28 and July 2-5 found three of every five Democrats, compared to two of every five Republicans, planning to “vote for or against a candidate just on the basis of their position on the abortion issue.” A Cygnal poll of battleground states, taken June 25-26 for the Republican State Leadership Committee, showed 47% of Democrats said they wouldn’t cast ballots for candidates with whom they disagreed on abortion, while only 35% of Republicans had a similar position.

In the Politico survey ,43% of registered voters said it was very important to vote for a candidate who “supports abortion access” while only 26% said it was very important to cast their ballots for a candidate who “opposes abortion access.”

In the Marist poll, 51 percent of registered voters said they would definitely vote for “a candidate for Congress who will support a federal law to restore Roe versus Wade and the right to abortion.” Only 36 percent said they would definitely vote against such a candidate.

Throughout the year, Democrats have fallen behind Republicans on the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they’re inclined to support in the upcoming election. But now in surveys taken since Dobbs, when the choice is framed around abortion, Democrats win. The Yahoo News poll fund when voters were asked about a congressional race between “a Democratic Party candidate who is pro-choice on abortion” and “a Republican Party candidate who is pro-life on abortion,” 47% chose the Democrat, while only 32% chose the Republican. The results were almost identical when the options were presented as a Democrat “who wants to keep abortions legal” and a Republican “who wants to ban abortions.”

All these findings are consistent with voters’ overall opinions on abortion. When asked to identify themselves as pro-life or pro-choice, and when they’re asked whether most abortions should be legal or illegal, the pro-life percentage is in the low- to mid-30s, while the pro-choice percentage is from the low 50s to low 60s. Even in red states in which respondents say their state governments have already restricted abortion or are likely to restrict it, the Politico poll found that voters split on an abortion ban at 15 weeks, but heavily oppose a ban at six weeks. Even Trump voters and rank-and-file Republicans are more likely to oppose than support a federal ban on abortion.

Republican candidates still have big advantages with most voters feeling squeezed by inflation and unhappy with the Biden administration, making it likely Republicans will win the House of Representatives. But if the red wave doesn’t show up, or is smaller than expected, the reason will be Dobbs, not some revelation from the January 6th hearings.

Democrats should be campaigning 24/7 on the desire of Republicans to make abortion illegal nationwide, and on the Supreme Court’s dislike of Privacy - which protects contraception, interracial marriage, and gay marriage. Tie the Republicans to these issues, and there’s a 60+% majority against them. That’s enough to keep the House and add to it, and win enough Senators to break Manchinema and end the filibuster.

But only if we work on it. Stop acting like the French Army defeated by the German blitzkrieg in 1940, and more like Churchill that summer: “We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds. we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. We shall never surrender.”

Remember, Britain was supposed to lose the Battle of Britain.

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