Posted this morning by Michael Tomasky in his newsletter. No further comment necessary: I don’t know about you, but I have been worrying since this war started that we, the United States, were somehow going to end up officially fighting it. Joe Biden has done a good job of keeping us out of it and saying there’s no way we’re sending troops to defend Ukraine.
Right now I have to wonder what else is going on behind the scenes in the Kremlin. May 9 is coming. A significant date for Russia - to celebrate their innocence by basking on being on the "winning side" after Germany tore up their "non-aggression pact" in 1939-1941 when Russia did a lot of killing in the same part of the world they're attacking now. But, May 9, a great day to celebrate innocence. And the only way to do that is to smash Ukraine. Russia has sent the US a diplomatic note. It is not unlike what may have been received when we were sending materiel to Britain when they were being bombed nightly by the German air force, and when there was threat of invasion. Putin got his war going because of something he was intent on hiding in some way or other and he thought Ukraine would roll over. Too bad we did not hit him as hard in 2014. Or actually in 2008. Plenty of second guessing going on now but the bottom line I think is this: you cannot create peace out of capitalism that runs amok smashing culture and mores right and left. And that is what has happened since the fall of communism, IMHO. A few people in Russia, with Putin at the helm, took the country over economically, lock, stock and barrel and that is why now allied nations are taking huge yachts into custody! Not to mention lots of money. In the meantime, Putin is himself the richest man in the world - I read an article that states his wealth is at least 900 B dollars! The only way to keep it all is to crush opponents to stay in power. He needed this war. So he is not going to go quietly. He's going to take others with him. Let's hope the alliance can stop him before he pushes the button.
Yes, this does keep me up at night, or rather keeps me thinking, not dreaming, myself in the war scenes in Ukraine. I think that is a way of paying attention. I think the objective of Putin is Making Russia Great Again. One way is by occupying Crimea and safeguard the Black Sea Navy. The war that has been going on since 2014 has not been sufficient to keep land connection and water supply for Crimea. Another way is to take over all of Ukraine. Putin has quoted a Zar: "Russia without Ukraine is no super power, Russia with Ukraine is a super power." If that is not entirely possible, taking over the Black Sea coast, with oil resources and trade routes, and food production would do, to give Russia dominance on the world market.
Propagating Nato as an aggressor makes more sense to Russians if the war is actually on "the sacred Russian soil". I think Nato is aware of that, and is prepared to strike back on member territory at first. Russian use of tactical nukes is primarily a tool to spread anxiety, but if it should happen I trust Nato has prepared for a response; and not for an immediate escalation. Ukraine gave up on nuclear forces in return for its territorial integrity. It would legitimize retaliation with the same, given by the US, but the propaganda value of not doing so, but threaten to retaliate, would be worth more, and so far Ukraine has shown great insight in the value of propaganda. If Russian troops were near to capture Odessa, the Russian occupants of the borderland of Moldavia could be prepared to enter the war scene.
'But if Putin does something crazy' wrote Michael Tomasky as though Putin hasn't already done 'crazy' or was he simply stupid to invade Ukraine expecting it to be simple? A lack of logistical skills, planning and training of the military, misreading the enemy; the tragic flaw of one-man rule -- just a bunch of weaknesses or do they add up to 'crazy'? Tomasky reads history, recalls 'Unpredictable Consequences' in the past, considers Putin's nature and reads between the lines. That was how Tomasky penetrated uncertainty and shaded the idea that Putin's playing a game of Bluffing.
Before I climb into my nest of despair, does anyone know if, in the nearly 80 years since THE bombs were dropped on Japan, the U.S. has secretly supported another Manhattan Project, but not to design H and other alphabet bombs. so much as to create mechanisms to override and guide the enemy's airborne bombs so there is a predictable and "safe" consequence like explodes north of Uranus?
Sounds like to dogs of war are being fed. Could Putin be that certain of his power and nuclear delivery? I hope Mr Biden can keep the NATO plus coalition going when tomorrow's breech happens; Putin's expected attacks on world economy, on former satellites, on testy fronts like Finland and Sweden, and as need-driven partners (India, Pakistan, Africa, Syria, China) distance themselves. Just ruminating. Not predicting. Read enough history to put Tomasky's newsletter into context.
Right now I have to wonder what else is going on behind the scenes in the Kremlin. May 9 is coming. A significant date for Russia - to celebrate their innocence by basking on being on the "winning side" after Germany tore up their "non-aggression pact" in 1939-1941 when Russia did a lot of killing in the same part of the world they're attacking now. But, May 9, a great day to celebrate innocence. And the only way to do that is to smash Ukraine. Russia has sent the US a diplomatic note. It is not unlike what may have been received when we were sending materiel to Britain when they were being bombed nightly by the German air force, and when there was threat of invasion. Putin got his war going because of something he was intent on hiding in some way or other and he thought Ukraine would roll over. Too bad we did not hit him as hard in 2014. Or actually in 2008. Plenty of second guessing going on now but the bottom line I think is this: you cannot create peace out of capitalism that runs amok smashing culture and mores right and left. And that is what has happened since the fall of communism, IMHO. A few people in Russia, with Putin at the helm, took the country over economically, lock, stock and barrel and that is why now allied nations are taking huge yachts into custody! Not to mention lots of money. In the meantime, Putin is himself the richest man in the world - I read an article that states his wealth is at least 900 B dollars! The only way to keep it all is to crush opponents to stay in power. He needed this war. So he is not going to go quietly. He's going to take others with him. Let's hope the alliance can stop him before he pushes the button.
Just FYI, this article is about what activists did at the Russian Embassy in Washington, D.C., spotlighting the Ukrainian flag onto their building.
https://wapo.st/3KH7ao1
And a happy Easter to you too, TC.
Yes, this does keep me up at night, or rather keeps me thinking, not dreaming, myself in the war scenes in Ukraine. I think that is a way of paying attention. I think the objective of Putin is Making Russia Great Again. One way is by occupying Crimea and safeguard the Black Sea Navy. The war that has been going on since 2014 has not been sufficient to keep land connection and water supply for Crimea. Another way is to take over all of Ukraine. Putin has quoted a Zar: "Russia without Ukraine is no super power, Russia with Ukraine is a super power." If that is not entirely possible, taking over the Black Sea coast, with oil resources and trade routes, and food production would do, to give Russia dominance on the world market.
Propagating Nato as an aggressor makes more sense to Russians if the war is actually on "the sacred Russian soil". I think Nato is aware of that, and is prepared to strike back on member territory at first. Russian use of tactical nukes is primarily a tool to spread anxiety, but if it should happen I trust Nato has prepared for a response; and not for an immediate escalation. Ukraine gave up on nuclear forces in return for its territorial integrity. It would legitimize retaliation with the same, given by the US, but the propaganda value of not doing so, but threaten to retaliate, would be worth more, and so far Ukraine has shown great insight in the value of propaganda. If Russian troops were near to capture Odessa, the Russian occupants of the borderland of Moldavia could be prepared to enter the war scene.
'But if Putin does something crazy' wrote Michael Tomasky as though Putin hasn't already done 'crazy' or was he simply stupid to invade Ukraine expecting it to be simple? A lack of logistical skills, planning and training of the military, misreading the enemy; the tragic flaw of one-man rule -- just a bunch of weaknesses or do they add up to 'crazy'? Tomasky reads history, recalls 'Unpredictable Consequences' in the past, considers Putin's nature and reads between the lines. That was how Tomasky penetrated uncertainty and shaded the idea that Putin's playing a game of Bluffing.
Before I climb into my nest of despair, does anyone know if, in the nearly 80 years since THE bombs were dropped on Japan, the U.S. has secretly supported another Manhattan Project, but not to design H and other alphabet bombs. so much as to create mechanisms to override and guide the enemy's airborne bombs so there is a predictable and "safe" consequence like explodes north of Uranus?
Sounds like to dogs of war are being fed. Could Putin be that certain of his power and nuclear delivery? I hope Mr Biden can keep the NATO plus coalition going when tomorrow's breech happens; Putin's expected attacks on world economy, on former satellites, on testy fronts like Finland and Sweden, and as need-driven partners (India, Pakistan, Africa, Syria, China) distance themselves. Just ruminating. Not predicting. Read enough history to put Tomasky's newsletter into context.
I've thought similarly but in vague terms about this. To see it in print...well, that's something else entirely.