Counter to the recent reports of early election voter turnout equaling or surpassing that of 2018, in which Democrats won a House majority, and leading to increased hope that Democrats can hold the line in 2022, other polls are telling different stories.
Truth and reality have been redefined. The President who has accomplished more in his first term than any other President in modern history can't poll higher than 50%? He should be at 75%. The American public does have its selfish head up its ass. Go figure.
Wait, I just figured it out. The majority of Amercans DON'T actually want to help their fellow citizens. It's all about "ME".
It’s beyond me how people can’t see beyond themselves. The Democrats and the Biden administration have done more for the American people economically than any other president since Roosevelt. The Republicans want to gut social security and Medicare, I guess the Seniors better start looking for a job. These voters who are voting Republican because of the economy...WTF do you think the repubs are going to do to fix it? Give the obscenely wealthy more tax breaks? Gut social security and Medicare? Make sure drug prices stay high? End all climate change mitigation and ramp up fossil fuels? Not to mention stop aid to Ukraine who are fighting for their freedom and frankly their existence from a ruthless war criminal. They have absolutely no plan to lower prices. And coincidentally corporate profits are at an all time high. Hmm
So TC, who has been encouraging us with optimistic essays these last couple weeks, is now concerned. And that’s concerning. And there seems to be good reason.
I guess it makes sense that the late breaking voters are breaking towards their pocketbooks and “strongmen”. Such people are sufficiently inattentive to national affairs that they can’t bother to form and opinion until the last moment. The perfect example of people who hold their rights lightly but their money dear.
Now we are seeing an example of the perils of democracy. The fickle crowds will flock to the loud braying of the asinine politician in uncertain times, and care not whether they imperil democracy in the process. Historically, this is how it’s always happened as democracy yields to the mob, which rallies around an authoritarian. It doesn’t help when the national press is too attracted to flying chaos monkeys like Trump and his assorted collection of crazy candidates. Just having nutballs like Hershel Walker reported upon without acknowledging his utter unfitness adds to the prevailing sense that something is off. Something’s not right around here. And so the fickle crowds move toward the blowhards who promise to make them great again.
If Democratic voters don’t turn out in droves, the Republic is…I can’t bring myself to say it.
the idea that Repugs are favored in the "lowering the national debt" category is pretty fucking astonishing. the folks who think that could EVER be the case are among the brain dead. when's the last time that was true? I'm willing to bet that those same schmucks still think that " a rising tide lifts all boats" or whatever that trickle-down slogan is.
when a headline in the "newspaper of record" (god help us yet again) says that Americans think that "our democracy is in danger" but are "largely apathetic" about it, I immediately flash on the stuff I heard last week about "Gen Z-ers" having their feelings terribly hurt by the "thumbs-up" emoji (does anyone else know about this?). do they think it's like getting flipped off? I would've thought they'd have all seen (at very least) "Gladiator." but that was over twenty years ago (it sucked then and hasn't gotten any better, but that's a whole other issue).
I thought Hershel Walker was a gift, I didn’t think he would have a chance against Senator Warnock, but I may have been wrong, I’ve done my part, now we’ll just have to wait and see if the people living in this country even have a right to participate in our democracy. You can’t have missed what the country has been going through and decided who to support based on the cost of gas and groceries, not and have any clue about what is at stake. This was a slam dunk.....
We have just completed writing postcards to 200 people who have a history of not voting in midterms but who are likely to vote for progressive climate policies. They are in districts believed to be close. We do hope this has some effect on this election. We are doing this through Postcardsforclimate.com.
I started reading this just after I'd heard about the polls on Swedish Radio news. Three intervjus with three R-leaning voters talking about their wallets. No seeking of relevant facts, no question of what and who is really making a difference to everybody's wallets; and I pay a tax for these lousy journalists!
This is an important report, TC; thanks. Please tell me, when you say, "These numbers are consistent with a wide range of options, from a big Democratic comeback to a serious drubbing with a plus-20 Republican majority in the House." what do you mean? The numbers all seem to point to a drubbing.
Hey bud, it's been a while ( had back to back teaching gigs on the east and west coast).
I dunno. And I think the kings of "I don't know" are the pollsters. Just look at the ones you have sighted. MY head spun.
I'm going with famous screenwriter, William Golden, who replied when asked about Hollywood said, Nobody knows anything."
I didn't think 2016 was gonna happen either. And our clusterfuck of a country has only gotten worse because of tangerine nightmare and his fascist toadies. It ain't only the hurricane that kills you, it's the aftermath too. We're at the stage where we are all sitting on our roof waiting to be rescued.
Well we can only rescue ourselves and I don't have high hopes for the citizens who bought this ton of shit on themselves and pulled the chair out while we were sitting down.
It comes down to simple math ( and the thugs will do anything to prevent poc of voting); we out number them and get our collective fat asses to the the polls and vote blue, no matter who.
I disagree with the polls and the pundits on this doomsday scenario regarding the midterms because my real life election observations here in Red Northern Michigan echo one of our local politico's findings. Michael Moore says:
"MIKE'S MIDTERM TSUNAMI OF TRUTH" CAMPAIGN
Mike’s Midterm Tsunami Truth #21
Don’t believe it.
(10-18-22)
"The people are speaking, but the media’s not listening. (SIphotography/Getty images)
(A daily series to counter the myth that the Republicans are going to win the House and Senate)
Six months ago, the pundits, the press and the protectors of the established order put out a lot of stories about how the Republicans were going to clean up in the November Midterms. And why wouldn’t they write that? History was on the Republican’s side. Plus Biden had sunk in the approval ratings. Senators Manchin and Sinema had blocked the votes in the Senate for most of Biden’s agenda. It was shaping up to be a comfortable, predictable midterm narrative — like any good Hallmark movie executive produced by Conventional Wisdom — and at the center of it was good ole “Grandpa Joe.”
But then things changed.
Biden started getting one thing after another passed. The price of gas came down. He pardoned thousands of marijuana users. He finally began forgiving student debt. Simultaneously, Republican candidates stopped pretending they weren’t white nationalists, the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago, and the Supreme Court stripped the rights away from the majority gender while expanding the power of the 2nd Amendment and telling the planet to go f**k itself.
And then the American people, as they usually do, started telling anyone who would listen — including the pollsters — that they wanted Democrats running the country. This sent shock waves through the establishment.
The country had collectively changed the channel and blew up the narrative.
But the mainstream media, instead of adapting, has doubled down, and is constantly trying to put these new pieces into the old puzzle. And that’s reason you’ve been subjected to so many stories this week saying that we're now gonna lose.
And the effect of this kind of reporting can be jarring — it can get inside the average American’s head and scramble it. You can start to feel deflated. You want to quit. You start believing that we liberals are a bunch of losers. And by thinking of ourselves this way, if you’re not careful, you begin to manifest the old narrative into existence.
But I’m here to tell you to stop, to pull you back from that ledge of despair because that won’t happen.
We don’t live in those times any more. The old folks who mostly voted for Republicans are gone, RIP. I loved a lot of them. But the others of their generation gave us war, segregation, and the destruction of the middle and working class. If you were 50 when you voted for Nixon, you’re dead now. If you were over 60 and voted for Reagan, you’re long gone, too.
Here is the real world we live in now: in the brief 14 years since Barack Obama was first elected, 56 million 17-year-olds have turned 18 and become eligible to vote. And since that day in 2008, they have set new voting records in election after election. In my state of Michigan alone, the youth vote more than doubled between the Midterms of 2014 and 2018. In fact, the only reason Obama won was because of youth vote. He won 66% of it. Get this: Obama lost every single white age demographic except for white youth. The majority of all white age groups over 30 voted for McCain. But the kids (and an overwhelming turnout from people of color and women) is what put Obama in the White House.
Has the white male-owned media bothered to share any of this with you lately?"..
'One way to read the striking results of the New York Times/Siena College poll released this week is that democracy is not shaping up to be the driver of votes that many on the left hoped it would be.'
'The obvious reason is that inflation is a far more immediate issue on the minds of most voters, who are watching their savings evaporate or struggling to pay their bills. That’s Abraham Maslow 101: Physiological needs of food and shelter will always take priority over abstractions.'
'But another way to interpret the survey is as yet more confirmation that American democracy is indeed in trouble.'
'In a Twitter Spaces conversation today with Ruth Igielnik, a staff editor for news surveys who worked on this week’s poll, and Nick Corasaniti, a national correspondent on the politics team, we unpacked why, even though 71 percent of voters agreed that democracy was at risk, only 7 percent said that democracy’s fragile state was the most important problem facing the country. You can listen to our discussion here.'
'Ruth noted that voters’ responses to the question “What one or two words do you think summarize the current threat to democracy?” were all over the map.'
'Some said “election deniers” or “Donald Trump,” while others said “Joe Biden,” “inflation and taxes” or “the one percent, a.k.a. Wall Street and hedge funds.” Another person said “our division” — that is, political polarization itself.'
'Nick, who recently returned from a reporting trip in Michigan, added some texture from tagging along during voter canvassing in Detroit and its suburbs, as well as in Saginaw, a city of about 50,000 people in the center of the state. Biden carried Saginaw County by just a few hundred votes in 2020.'
“We encountered a ton of voters, and not a single one of them brought up any issues of democracy,” Nick said.]
'He added that the organizers, as they prepared the canvassers for what they should expect to encounter, told them: “You’re going to hear about issues like, why are our wages so low when we’re a predominantly union town? Why are prescription drug prices so persistently high? Why are there potholes in the road? Why can’t I get a garbage can?”
'Lonna Atkeson, who studies political psychology at Florida State University, said voters were just thinking rationally. When it comes to protecting democracy, she noted, each side sees the other as the problem.' (NewYorkTimes) Gifted link below.
Truth and reality have been redefined. The President who has accomplished more in his first term than any other President in modern history can't poll higher than 50%? He should be at 75%. The American public does have its selfish head up its ass. Go figure.
Wait, I just figured it out. The majority of Amercans DON'T actually want to help their fellow citizens. It's all about "ME".
Embarrassed and ashamed I am.
The Republican platform is lie, lie, lie. Democracy is in peril because Democrats can’t seem to call that out with conviction and name naming.
It’s beyond me how people can’t see beyond themselves. The Democrats and the Biden administration have done more for the American people economically than any other president since Roosevelt. The Republicans want to gut social security and Medicare, I guess the Seniors better start looking for a job. These voters who are voting Republican because of the economy...WTF do you think the repubs are going to do to fix it? Give the obscenely wealthy more tax breaks? Gut social security and Medicare? Make sure drug prices stay high? End all climate change mitigation and ramp up fossil fuels? Not to mention stop aid to Ukraine who are fighting for their freedom and frankly their existence from a ruthless war criminal. They have absolutely no plan to lower prices. And coincidentally corporate profits are at an all time high. Hmm
Sorry, I’m sick of polls.
So TC, who has been encouraging us with optimistic essays these last couple weeks, is now concerned. And that’s concerning. And there seems to be good reason.
I guess it makes sense that the late breaking voters are breaking towards their pocketbooks and “strongmen”. Such people are sufficiently inattentive to national affairs that they can’t bother to form and opinion until the last moment. The perfect example of people who hold their rights lightly but their money dear.
Now we are seeing an example of the perils of democracy. The fickle crowds will flock to the loud braying of the asinine politician in uncertain times, and care not whether they imperil democracy in the process. Historically, this is how it’s always happened as democracy yields to the mob, which rallies around an authoritarian. It doesn’t help when the national press is too attracted to flying chaos monkeys like Trump and his assorted collection of crazy candidates. Just having nutballs like Hershel Walker reported upon without acknowledging his utter unfitness adds to the prevailing sense that something is off. Something’s not right around here. And so the fickle crowds move toward the blowhards who promise to make them great again.
If Democratic voters don’t turn out in droves, the Republic is…I can’t bring myself to say it.
the idea that Repugs are favored in the "lowering the national debt" category is pretty fucking astonishing. the folks who think that could EVER be the case are among the brain dead. when's the last time that was true? I'm willing to bet that those same schmucks still think that " a rising tide lifts all boats" or whatever that trickle-down slogan is.
when a headline in the "newspaper of record" (god help us yet again) says that Americans think that "our democracy is in danger" but are "largely apathetic" about it, I immediately flash on the stuff I heard last week about "Gen Z-ers" having their feelings terribly hurt by the "thumbs-up" emoji (does anyone else know about this?). do they think it's like getting flipped off? I would've thought they'd have all seen (at very least) "Gladiator." but that was over twenty years ago (it sucked then and hasn't gotten any better, but that's a whole other issue).
I thought Hershel Walker was a gift, I didn’t think he would have a chance against Senator Warnock, but I may have been wrong, I’ve done my part, now we’ll just have to wait and see if the people living in this country even have a right to participate in our democracy. You can’t have missed what the country has been going through and decided who to support based on the cost of gas and groceries, not and have any clue about what is at stake. This was a slam dunk.....
We have just completed writing postcards to 200 people who have a history of not voting in midterms but who are likely to vote for progressive climate policies. They are in districts believed to be close. We do hope this has some effect on this election. We are doing this through Postcardsforclimate.com.
At least half of Americans and possibly a bit more are Fucked Up Beyond All Recognition. Oh to be a Ukranian where everyone values freedom.
I started reading this just after I'd heard about the polls on Swedish Radio news. Three intervjus with three R-leaning voters talking about their wallets. No seeking of relevant facts, no question of what and who is really making a difference to everybody's wallets; and I pay a tax for these lousy journalists!
This is an important report, TC; thanks. Please tell me, when you say, "These numbers are consistent with a wide range of options, from a big Democratic comeback to a serious drubbing with a plus-20 Republican majority in the House." what do you mean? The numbers all seem to point to a drubbing.
Hey bud, it's been a while ( had back to back teaching gigs on the east and west coast).
I dunno. And I think the kings of "I don't know" are the pollsters. Just look at the ones you have sighted. MY head spun.
I'm going with famous screenwriter, William Golden, who replied when asked about Hollywood said, Nobody knows anything."
I didn't think 2016 was gonna happen either. And our clusterfuck of a country has only gotten worse because of tangerine nightmare and his fascist toadies. It ain't only the hurricane that kills you, it's the aftermath too. We're at the stage where we are all sitting on our roof waiting to be rescued.
Well we can only rescue ourselves and I don't have high hopes for the citizens who bought this ton of shit on themselves and pulled the chair out while we were sitting down.
It comes down to simple math ( and the thugs will do anything to prevent poc of voting); we out number them and get our collective fat asses to the the polls and vote blue, no matter who.
Staying home is a victory for the nazis.
Who does most of the shopping in our
country? Women. Yes, abortion is an
important issue, but right now, to most
shoppers, so is their wallet. I don't know
how they think President Biden can make
Walmart, Kroger and all the other super
market stores, to say nothing of their
suppliers, lower their prices. But, honestly, I've seen little by Democrats
even try to talk to the people on Main
St. about how inflation on food prices
is affecting them, except Tim Ryan.
This could be a harbinger of bad news
for Dems with women voters.
Terrifying. But, thank you.
I disagree with the polls and the pundits on this doomsday scenario regarding the midterms because my real life election observations here in Red Northern Michigan echo one of our local politico's findings. Michael Moore says:
"MIKE'S MIDTERM TSUNAMI OF TRUTH" CAMPAIGN
Mike’s Midterm Tsunami Truth #21
Don’t believe it.
(10-18-22)
"The people are speaking, but the media’s not listening. (SIphotography/Getty images)
(A daily series to counter the myth that the Republicans are going to win the House and Senate)
Six months ago, the pundits, the press and the protectors of the established order put out a lot of stories about how the Republicans were going to clean up in the November Midterms. And why wouldn’t they write that? History was on the Republican’s side. Plus Biden had sunk in the approval ratings. Senators Manchin and Sinema had blocked the votes in the Senate for most of Biden’s agenda. It was shaping up to be a comfortable, predictable midterm narrative — like any good Hallmark movie executive produced by Conventional Wisdom — and at the center of it was good ole “Grandpa Joe.”
But then things changed.
Biden started getting one thing after another passed. The price of gas came down. He pardoned thousands of marijuana users. He finally began forgiving student debt. Simultaneously, Republican candidates stopped pretending they weren’t white nationalists, the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago, and the Supreme Court stripped the rights away from the majority gender while expanding the power of the 2nd Amendment and telling the planet to go f**k itself.
And then the American people, as they usually do, started telling anyone who would listen — including the pollsters — that they wanted Democrats running the country. This sent shock waves through the establishment.
The country had collectively changed the channel and blew up the narrative.
But the mainstream media, instead of adapting, has doubled down, and is constantly trying to put these new pieces into the old puzzle. And that’s reason you’ve been subjected to so many stories this week saying that we're now gonna lose.
And the effect of this kind of reporting can be jarring — it can get inside the average American’s head and scramble it. You can start to feel deflated. You want to quit. You start believing that we liberals are a bunch of losers. And by thinking of ourselves this way, if you’re not careful, you begin to manifest the old narrative into existence.
But I’m here to tell you to stop, to pull you back from that ledge of despair because that won’t happen.
We don’t live in those times any more. The old folks who mostly voted for Republicans are gone, RIP. I loved a lot of them. But the others of their generation gave us war, segregation, and the destruction of the middle and working class. If you were 50 when you voted for Nixon, you’re dead now. If you were over 60 and voted for Reagan, you’re long gone, too.
Here is the real world we live in now: in the brief 14 years since Barack Obama was first elected, 56 million 17-year-olds have turned 18 and become eligible to vote. And since that day in 2008, they have set new voting records in election after election. In my state of Michigan alone, the youth vote more than doubled between the Midterms of 2014 and 2018. In fact, the only reason Obama won was because of youth vote. He won 66% of it. Get this: Obama lost every single white age demographic except for white youth. The majority of all white age groups over 30 voted for McCain. But the kids (and an overwhelming turnout from people of color and women) is what put Obama in the White House.
Has the white male-owned media bothered to share any of this with you lately?"..
https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/midterm-tsunami-truth-21
'One way to read the striking results of the New York Times/Siena College poll released this week is that democracy is not shaping up to be the driver of votes that many on the left hoped it would be.'
'The obvious reason is that inflation is a far more immediate issue on the minds of most voters, who are watching their savings evaporate or struggling to pay their bills. That’s Abraham Maslow 101: Physiological needs of food and shelter will always take priority over abstractions.'
'But another way to interpret the survey is as yet more confirmation that American democracy is indeed in trouble.'
'In a Twitter Spaces conversation today with Ruth Igielnik, a staff editor for news surveys who worked on this week’s poll, and Nick Corasaniti, a national correspondent on the politics team, we unpacked why, even though 71 percent of voters agreed that democracy was at risk, only 7 percent said that democracy’s fragile state was the most important problem facing the country. You can listen to our discussion here.'
'Ruth noted that voters’ responses to the question “What one or two words do you think summarize the current threat to democracy?” were all over the map.'
'Some said “election deniers” or “Donald Trump,” while others said “Joe Biden,” “inflation and taxes” or “the one percent, a.k.a. Wall Street and hedge funds.” Another person said “our division” — that is, political polarization itself.'
'Nick, who recently returned from a reporting trip in Michigan, added some texture from tagging along during voter canvassing in Detroit and its suburbs, as well as in Saginaw, a city of about 50,000 people in the center of the state. Biden carried Saginaw County by just a few hundred votes in 2020.'
“We encountered a ton of voters, and not a single one of them brought up any issues of democracy,” Nick said.]
'He added that the organizers, as they prepared the canvassers for what they should expect to encounter, told them: “You’re going to hear about issues like, why are our wages so low when we’re a predominantly union town? Why are prescription drug prices so persistently high? Why are there potholes in the road? Why can’t I get a garbage can?”
'Lonna Atkeson, who studies political psychology at Florida State University, said voters were just thinking rationally. When it comes to protecting democracy, she noted, each side sees the other as the problem.' (NewYorkTimes) Gifted link below.
'Sleepwalking into danger'
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/us/politics/us-democracy.html?unlocked_article_code=gqEN0_2IO51V3NNPuPPsNzmpJAs8fUZ-_B8LUEv3iy4wRNAOvgFNgDtfgygNWco6nXGnyw78SazU2KC5lwgfflAPD8tJDMS15eUb-6_xSFytfANjRozi2ahOf_p1ydNyUKXEahgE2O4NQORXHBElkCM93FPp8FeRFU7VzMO4mlt5xl2YPs4CkalpVZ5tKITYyxSBWeC26NOpk6WBol1DdDB7FHwt2Vt7NIcyGsG50Z8h1YAOGgu_tvrq1hOpRTVT28zmq5Ct5eDoIw5HGq0BF4_tHiAoTdLHquUBVx5hh04POANBzDOO8gsMpOJZD_IedTfmzJtY3TD8Fw&smid=share-url