THE JUMP SHOT GETS JUMPIER

Counter to the recent reports of early election voter turnout equaling or surpassing that of 2018, in which Democrats won a House majority, and leading to increased hope that Democrats can hold the line in 2022, other polls are telling different stories.

Amazingly, Republican prospects for a midterm sweep are looking decidedly brighter.

And this is largely because female voters – the group that Democrats have been assuming would be mobilized on the abortion issue after the overturning of Roe – are moving toward the GOP.

I was skeptical when the New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this week had women split 47-47 on the generic ballot, which asks whether voters would rather have a Democrat or Republican represent them in Congress. But the newest Monmouth University poll released today came up with almost exactly the same result: a 46-46 division among women. Coincidence or confirmation? Unfortunately, I tend to think the latter.

That poll had shown Democrats with a 56 percent to 36 percent advantage among female voters at the end of July, and holding a 10-point edge at the end of September.

Men are also leaning more toward Republicans in Monmouth’s latest survey, though the swing is not as sharp.

Yes, polls don’t tell you everything. In August, the special congressional election in New York and the Kansas referendum showed there was intense energy behind the abortion issue. But right now in that New York congressional district, the Democrat who won the special election is running behind.

Political poll watchers say women are turning in their ballots in high numbers in early voting.

But who are they turning in their ballots for?

It is becoming clear that growing economic concerns are swamping everything else - for women and for the electorate at large.

In the Monmouth poll, 63 percent of all voters – 61 percent of women and 65 percent of men – said President Biden is not “giving enough attention to the issues that are most important to you and your family.”

How anyone gets that out of the past 18 months is beyond me, but that perception will be hard to turn around in the 19 days left before Election Day.

What is frustrating, as Jonathan Last pointed out today at the Bulwark is that it’s not just a few things that are trending away from Democrats in the past two weeks:.

Biden’s net approval rating has gone from -9 to -11. The Generic Congressional Ballot went from a 1 point lead for Republicans to a 3 point lead, with the new Monmouth poll today showing a 6 point lead. Georgia went from +5 Warnock to +2 Warnock, even after the disastrous debate performance by Herschel Walker. Ohio went from +1 Vance to +2 Vance, even after Tim Ryan’s strong performances in two debates. Arizona Senate went from +4 Kelly to +2 Kelly, while the governor’s race went from Lake +1 to Lake +2 with Katie Hobbs still refusing to defend her programs in a debate, which is seen as disastrous by Democrats in the state.

We’re even seeing movement in races where the Republicans are already toast: Doug Mastriano is going to lose in Pennsylvania, but his support ticked up by a point. Tudor Dixon is likely to lose in Michigan, but she’s +5 points over the last two weeks.

The Republican Senate candidate in North Carolina bumped up 2 points.

Wisconsin has Ron Johnson up 3 over Mandela Barnes after reports surfaced of Barnes having made a statement in 2020 favoring Iranian Supreme Ayatollah Alki Khamenei after he spoke in support of Black Lives Matter.

The Pennsylvania InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll out today has Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman tied at 46% each.

The New York governor’s race, which none of us have been watching closely, has gone from D +11 to D +6, with Hochul losing decisively upstate.

Regarding the Congressional generic poll, the Monmouth University poll released today gives Republicans a 6 point edge, which tipped FiveThirtyEight’s polling average to 45-44 in favor of Republicans for the first time since August.

The CBS Battleground poll shows the following with registered voters who say they will definitely vote this cycle:

Nevada (October 14019):

Republican - 81%

Democratic - 75%

Michigan (October 306)

Republican - 82%

Democratic - 75%

Wisconsin (October 3-7)

Republican - 79%

Democratic - 76%

Arizona (September 30-October 4

Republican - 80%

Democratic - 79%

Georgia (September 14-19)

Republican - 81%

Democratic - 76%

Bear in mind that turnout is always everything in mid-terms, but particularly so in a mid-term that is as evenly balanced a “jump shot” as this one is turning into.

The CNBC All America Economic Survey for third quarter gives Republicans a lead on the economy as follows:

Bringing down inflation: 42-27; dealing with taxes: 40-29; reducing federal deficit: 36-25; creating jobs: 43-33.

Democrats led 42-38 on “looking out for the middle class” and 44-28 on “reducing the costs of healthcare.”

Yes, if the above figures make you think American voters have their heads up their collective ass, these polls are strong evidence in your favor.

Now ask yourself: What has happened over the last two weeks? Yes, the answer is: Nothing.

There’s been no bombshell economic report; no foreign policy crisis; no Democratic scandal. Democrats did not pass or put forward any unpopular legislative proposals.

Gas prices have been flat over the last two weeks (outside of California, where they are outrageous enough that they are affecting the mayor’s race in Los Angeles - as if the mayor has any control over them). Overall, nationally, gas prices are down by more than 20 percent from their high in June.

In short, there’s no proximate reason why Democrats should be doing slightly worse and Republicans should be doing slightly better than they were two weeks ago.

But if this shift is real and you can’t see a proximate reason for it, then there must be a more invisible, environmental, reason.

The natural gravity of this race is shifting.

The question is, will it shift enough to go decisively Republican in 19 days?

These numbers are consistent with a wide range of options, from a big Democratic comeback to a serious drubbing with a plus-20 Republican majority in the House. Things don’t inspire a lot of confidence. But it’s not over. We’ll just have to wait and see, critically, whether this is in fact the final trend.

The most solid pessimistic argument I’ve seen is that we’re now seeing the final group of voters tuning into the election. The once who are largely unaffiliated and largely disaffected. The options they’re seeing indicate the reality of the country has shifted back again to uncertainty, with more high prices and a generalized sense of disorder.

On the other hand, we shouldn’t forget that while the most recent example was back in August, almost all the partisan special elections have seen Democrats over-preforming polls and 2020 benchmarks.

But that was close to two months ago, which is eternity in a political campaign.Perhaps the climate has changed and that experience doesn’t matter anymore. But maybe not.

What’s at stake is pretty clear: The Republican “platform” such as it is includes a national abortion ban, which means voters thinking choice is safe in Blue states are wrong; big cuts to Social Security and Medicare; and no plan to address inflation, which is a problem across the globe and has little to do with President Biden.

But still, 63% of voters said President Biden is not “giving enough attention to the issues that are most important to you and your family.”

Go figure.

Regarding the Democrat’s loss of the 2002 mid-terms they were expected to win, Bill Clinton observed, “When times are tense and people are worried, they’ll take strong and wrong over weak and right.”

I hear Walmart has the best prices on Pepto Bismol and and their generic “alka seltzer.”

I was hit pretty hard by the results of 2016. I just knew my fellow Americans couldn’t be that stupid. I was wrong.

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