THE BIG LIE IS NOT GOING AWAY

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With that...

Today’s news that prompts this post reminds me of my reaction a few years back when I saw a New Yorker cartoon in which an “obvious intellectual” says”

"Yes, those who fail to understand history are condemned to repeat it, but so are we who DO understand it!"

At which point I poured a Stiff One On The Rocks, and made it a double, then decided only a triple would do.

Robert Kagan isn’t my favorite political pundit - I still haven’t forgiven him for all the drum pounding in 2002 over democratizing the Middle East with American bayonets - but with this warning, he gets to leave the penalty box and go join he fellow former drum pounder Bill Kristol in the rankes of the Conservative Woke.

If the following doesn’t scare the absolute living shit out of you, you must be living in the new colony out at Alpha Centauri Four:

“The United States is heading into its greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War, with a reasonable chance over the next three to four years of incidents of mass violence, a breakdown of federal authority, and the division of the country into warring red and blue enclaves. The warning signs may be obscured by the distractions of politics, the pandemic, the economy and global crises, and by wishful thinking and denial. But about these things there should be no doubt:

“First, Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for president in 2024. The hope and expectation that he would fade in visibility and influence have been delusional. He enjoys mammoth leads in the polls; he is building a massive campaign war chest; and at this moment the Democratic ticket looks vulnerable. Barring health problems, he is running.

“Second, Trump and his Republican allies are actively preparing to ensure his victory by whatever means necessary. Trump’s charges of fraud in the 2020 election are now primarily aimed at establishing the predicate to challenge future election results that do not go his way.”

On that last point, Reuters reported yesterday:

“Reuters interviewed nine of the 15 declared Republican candidates for secretary of state in five battleground states -- Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada -- and reviewed public statements by all of the candidates. Ten of the 15 have either declared that the 2020 election was stolen or called for their state’s results to be invalidated or further investigated.

“Only two of the nine candidates Reuters interviewed said that Biden won the election.”

So much for all the good news about the Cyber Ninjas “fraudit” that demonstrated Biden actually got 360 MORE VOTES than the official count in Maicopa County listed.

So much for “When they read THIS FACT they’ll have to admit they’re wrong.”

That’s because of these facts in Professor Robert Pape’s report, which I first read yesterday over at the TPM Café:

“For months, my colleagues and I at the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats have been tracking insurrectionist sentiments in U.S. adults, most recently in surveys in June. We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Of those, 21 million also agree that “use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.”

“Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.”

But... but... but... I just KNOW there are still “good Republicans” out there who aren’t going to go along with this insanity.

To which Never-Trump conservative Jonathan V. Last says “How little you know, buddy” - from his cheery little newsletter this A.M.:

“The Big Brains at Cook have moved the Virginia governor’s race from leans-D to toss-up, which is a thing I’ve been bleating on about for several weeks here. So let’s start trying to understand the lessons that “Good Republicans” are going to take from the race if Glenn Youngkin wins.

(1) You Must Deny Biden’s 2020 Win:

Here are some things that are true: A) Youngkin could not have won the primary had he acknowledged that Trump was lying about 2020; B) Even with his pussy-footing on the Big Lie, Youngkin needed the state Republican party to rig the process to keep most rank-and-file R’s from voting for the real MAGA candidate; C) It’s not clear that Youngkin is paying any price with swing voters for going along with the Big Lie.

There are asymmetrical incentives for Republicans: Deny Trump and you will be punished by the base, because they see Trump as the past, present, and future. But indulge Trump and the median voter doesn’t really care, because they only regard Trump as the past.

(2) The Party Elites Don’t Actually Like Trump: The Virginia GOP put its finger on the scale for Youngkin for two reasons - A) He has money. B)He doesn’t actually believe any of the MAGA stuff.

In deep red states, that’s not going to fly. And the turnover in elite GOP circles is ongoing. At some point in the medium future, most Republican elites will be true believers. But for now, the McConnell wing of the party still has a little bit of juice left.

(3) There Is a Post-Trump Republican Future: Write this down:

If Youngkin wins, conservatives will claim that this is the path to a post-Trump future for the party. As it happens, I think this lesson is incorrect. But it’s what the Good Republicans will tell themselves to keep them from doing serious introspection and making any hard choices.

Sorry folks, but we really are facing that situation my old friend the late Hollywood Legend lived through in Germany back in 1928-33. At risk of being labeled a “crank” as he was, by the contemporary versions of those who back then were certain “The Nazis are clowns,” I’m going to go out on a limb and say:

WAKE UP! THE FUTURE IS DARK!!!!

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