Knowledgeable observers now believe that the Dobbs backlash is fading from the election-winning levels of this summer that saw a surprise victory for choice in Kansas and Democratic candidates winning seats that were thought Republican-friendly in upstate New York and Alaska, that seemed to portend a building blue wave that might allow Democrats to hold the House majority in November. There is an argument to be made that the issue fading has as much to do with the failure of the Democrats to make choice the major issue of the election that it should be, coupled with the reduction in Democratic political advertising at the same moment the GOP is vastly increasing their spending.
2/ “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” Always surprises me how folks can hold their rights so loosely but hold their money dear.
Summary of challenges the Democrats have in one state.
NEVADA NEVADA NEVADA
- Senator Catherine Cortez Masto remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country. Gov. Steve Sisolak is fighting his most formidable challenger yet. And the state’s three House Democrats could all lose their seats.
- The contest between Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt appears within the margin of error — and that’s even after Cortez Masto vastly outspent Laxalt before Labor Day. Republicans have long viewed the race as their best pickup opportunity but it’s now all the more critical that Democrats hold down the seat as races have tightened in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
- elections in Nevada are to be held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Nevada, one from each of the state's four congressional districts.
- Organizers in both parties say they see the same phenomenon developing, as do major Latino groups and the powerful Culinary Workers Union: Disgruntled over the economy and unhappy with their post-pandemic job quality, these voters, many of whom Democratic groups identify as once lifelong supporters, could sit this one out.
- A depressed turnout, however, is an ominous prospect for Democrats in particular. It could have implications for the state’s bid to hold the first primary contest in the 2024 presidential cycle.
- While the economy may be the most challenging hurdle for Democrats this year, it is not the only one: Republicans and nonpartisan voters make up nearly 60 percent of the Nevada electorate, which historically has lower turnout in midterm elections.
- The state’s transient population has made building a reliable base of voters difficult, with would-be voters leaving in search of work elsewhere, as more children of immigrants in the state reach voting age.
- “The path to victory all runs through the Hispanic community,” said Xochitl Hinojosa, a Democratic consultant who has worked in the state. “Democrats are finally realizing, we’ve invested in Black voters significantly over decades, and we’ve been successful, but we’ve assumed Hispanics will turn out for us, and that’s not been the case.”
- A depressed turnout, however, is an ominous prospect for Democrats in particular. It could have implications for the state’s bid to hold the first primary contest in the 2024 presidential cycle.
- While the economy may be the most challenging hurdle for Democrats this year, it is not the only one: Republicans and nonpartisan voters make up nearly 60 percent of the Nevada electorate, which historically has lower turnout in midterm elections.
- The House Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Democratic leadership, has reserved more than $11 million in advertising slots in the Las Vegas market for a final blitz.(Various sources)
There's good news tonight that Tim Ryan is up 3 in Ohio on Widdle Jimmy Vance, the Silly Con Valley hillbilly. It's within the margin of error, but that's better than 6 points down, where he was a couple weeks ago.
Down to the wire now. I've been "targeting" my donations all along, but as we near the End Game, I'm putting off all unnecessary or frivolous expenditures and putting my money on Dems to hold the House and increase control in the Senate. It's not much, but it's a bit like voting. Every dollar counts. Every vote counts. And in Cortez Masto's case, big Dem donors are stepping up with matching donations or tripling donations right now. I can't knock on their doors, but focusing on whatever can be done to offset the vast amount of dark, i.e. crooked, money behind attack ads.
While polls try to give us a "quantitative" measure of where elections are about to go, they don't account for the psychology of voting - or not. There is no poll that I have ever heard of that has predicted turnout or especially turnout by issue. So, I am going to suggest that we might have a significant advantage in the "motivation to vote...or not" - in other words, who shows up.
On the GQP side we have candidates that are hard to feel totally committed to for various reasons. Which might suggest the voters impulse on voting day could be "Meh, I'll just stop off for a beer and tell the wife the lines were long at town hall."
Walker is a dolt. Now he is a lying, hypocrite of a dolt. A Boston Robotics android would be more convincing. He is like a "host" on WestWorld. (I so love that show).
Oz is a super rich "non-resident" TV snake oil salesman. Fetterman's weird but he's a "one of us" kind of weird. And he has some governing experience, if that matters to anyone....
JD Vance has conducted almost a non-campaign. And his history of flip flops is mid boggling. I suspect his appeal to the working class must be weak - especially when compared to the hard working people's image of Ryan. "Should I vote for a rich con man author or buy a round for my buddies? Who actually work hard every day."
So.....maybe, it will be "I'll just have another brew before going home....make that a boiler maker."
On the Dems side we have angry women who see a Handmaids Tale being played out. My political sniffer says that we should not underestimate the motivation of millions of pissed off women who feel slapped around by the GQP and their Medieval Opus Dei Cult Court.
I know, I know. I woke up feeling optimistic - I AM also terrified, of course.
BTW, the gas price at the "cheap station" yesterday in MetroWest MA was $3.18. Go figure.
I hope you're right, but polls of "enthusiasm" are favoring Republicans. Democratic voters have only recently discovered there are elections every two years, not every four, and for more offices than president.
'A majority of GOP nominees — 299 in all — deny the 2020 election results.'
'Experts say their dominance in the party poses a threat to the country’s democratic principles and jeopardizes the integrity of future votes.'
IT'S STILL A JUMP SHOT FOR NOVEMBER 8. It that still true?
'A majority of Republican nominees on the ballot this November for the House, Senate and KEY STATEWIDE OFFICES— 299 in all — have denied or questioned the outcome of the last presidential election, according to a Washington Post analysis.'
'-- MOST OF THE ELECTION DENIERS NOMINATED are LIKELY TO WIN. Of the nearly 300 on the ballot, 174 are running for safely Republican seats. Another 51 will appear on the ballot in tightly contested races.'
USE GIFTED LINK AT BOTTOM for article and to learn about the deniers on the ballot in your state. If there is a chance for the Democratic opponent to win against the DENIER will you support him or her?
There is a tab in the article to Find which Republican election deniers are running in your state.
'The implications will be lasting: If Republicans take control of the House, as many political forecasters predict, election deniers would hold enormous sway over the choice of the nation’s next speaker, who in turn could preside over the House in a future contested presidential election. The winners of all the races examined by The Post — those for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, Senate and House — will hold some measure of power overseeing American elections.' (WAPO) Gifted link below.
1/ MBS wants Trump re-elected. Simple.
2/ “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” Always surprises me how folks can hold their rights so loosely but hold their money dear.
I have more to say in agreement with Point 1.
Summary of challenges the Democrats have in one state.
NEVADA NEVADA NEVADA
- Senator Catherine Cortez Masto remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country. Gov. Steve Sisolak is fighting his most formidable challenger yet. And the state’s three House Democrats could all lose their seats.
- The contest between Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt appears within the margin of error — and that’s even after Cortez Masto vastly outspent Laxalt before Labor Day. Republicans have long viewed the race as their best pickup opportunity but it’s now all the more critical that Democrats hold down the seat as races have tightened in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
- elections in Nevada are to be held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Nevada, one from each of the state's four congressional districts.
- Organizers in both parties say they see the same phenomenon developing, as do major Latino groups and the powerful Culinary Workers Union: Disgruntled over the economy and unhappy with their post-pandemic job quality, these voters, many of whom Democratic groups identify as once lifelong supporters, could sit this one out.
- A depressed turnout, however, is an ominous prospect for Democrats in particular. It could have implications for the state’s bid to hold the first primary contest in the 2024 presidential cycle.
- While the economy may be the most challenging hurdle for Democrats this year, it is not the only one: Republicans and nonpartisan voters make up nearly 60 percent of the Nevada electorate, which historically has lower turnout in midterm elections.
- The state’s transient population has made building a reliable base of voters difficult, with would-be voters leaving in search of work elsewhere, as more children of immigrants in the state reach voting age.
- “The path to victory all runs through the Hispanic community,” said Xochitl Hinojosa, a Democratic consultant who has worked in the state. “Democrats are finally realizing, we’ve invested in Black voters significantly over decades, and we’ve been successful, but we’ve assumed Hispanics will turn out for us, and that’s not been the case.”
- A depressed turnout, however, is an ominous prospect for Democrats in particular. It could have implications for the state’s bid to hold the first primary contest in the 2024 presidential cycle.
- While the economy may be the most challenging hurdle for Democrats this year, it is not the only one: Republicans and nonpartisan voters make up nearly 60 percent of the Nevada electorate, which historically has lower turnout in midterm elections.
- The House Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Democratic leadership, has reserved more than $11 million in advertising slots in the Las Vegas market for a final blitz.(Various sources)
It's not a piece of cake!
There's good news tonight that Tim Ryan is up 3 in Ohio on Widdle Jimmy Vance, the Silly Con Valley hillbilly. It's within the margin of error, but that's better than 6 points down, where he was a couple weeks ago.
Thank you for this early morning boost, TC. I donated to his campaign between these two sentences.
I learned back in 2016 never to trust the polls. Who gets polled? People who have landlines. Most people no longer do.
Down to the wire now. I've been "targeting" my donations all along, but as we near the End Game, I'm putting off all unnecessary or frivolous expenditures and putting my money on Dems to hold the House and increase control in the Senate. It's not much, but it's a bit like voting. Every dollar counts. Every vote counts. And in Cortez Masto's case, big Dem donors are stepping up with matching donations or tripling donations right now. I can't knock on their doors, but focusing on whatever can be done to offset the vast amount of dark, i.e. crooked, money behind attack ads.
While polls try to give us a "quantitative" measure of where elections are about to go, they don't account for the psychology of voting - or not. There is no poll that I have ever heard of that has predicted turnout or especially turnout by issue. So, I am going to suggest that we might have a significant advantage in the "motivation to vote...or not" - in other words, who shows up.
On the GQP side we have candidates that are hard to feel totally committed to for various reasons. Which might suggest the voters impulse on voting day could be "Meh, I'll just stop off for a beer and tell the wife the lines were long at town hall."
Walker is a dolt. Now he is a lying, hypocrite of a dolt. A Boston Robotics android would be more convincing. He is like a "host" on WestWorld. (I so love that show).
Oz is a super rich "non-resident" TV snake oil salesman. Fetterman's weird but he's a "one of us" kind of weird. And he has some governing experience, if that matters to anyone....
JD Vance has conducted almost a non-campaign. And his history of flip flops is mid boggling. I suspect his appeal to the working class must be weak - especially when compared to the hard working people's image of Ryan. "Should I vote for a rich con man author or buy a round for my buddies? Who actually work hard every day."
So.....maybe, it will be "I'll just have another brew before going home....make that a boiler maker."
On the Dems side we have angry women who see a Handmaids Tale being played out. My political sniffer says that we should not underestimate the motivation of millions of pissed off women who feel slapped around by the GQP and their Medieval Opus Dei Cult Court.
I know, I know. I woke up feeling optimistic - I AM also terrified, of course.
BTW, the gas price at the "cheap station" yesterday in MetroWest MA was $3.18. Go figure.
I hope you're right, but polls of "enthusiasm" are favoring Republicans. Democratic voters have only recently discovered there are elections every two years, not every four, and for more offices than president.
Ah, a wry not of observation. I didn't LOL but smiled largely.
My problem with polls, no matter who runs them, is the total number of people
involved in the poll vs the actual number
of people who will vote.
'A majority of GOP nominees — 299 in all — deny the 2020 election results.'
'Experts say their dominance in the party poses a threat to the country’s democratic principles and jeopardizes the integrity of future votes.'
IT'S STILL A JUMP SHOT FOR NOVEMBER 8. It that still true?
'A majority of Republican nominees on the ballot this November for the House, Senate and KEY STATEWIDE OFFICES— 299 in all — have denied or questioned the outcome of the last presidential election, according to a Washington Post analysis.'
'-- MOST OF THE ELECTION DENIERS NOMINATED are LIKELY TO WIN. Of the nearly 300 on the ballot, 174 are running for safely Republican seats. Another 51 will appear on the ballot in tightly contested races.'
USE GIFTED LINK AT BOTTOM for article and to learn about the deniers on the ballot in your state. If there is a chance for the Democratic opponent to win against the DENIER will you support him or her?
There is a tab in the article to Find which Republican election deniers are running in your state.
'The implications will be lasting: If Republicans take control of the House, as many political forecasters predict, election deniers would hold enormous sway over the choice of the nation’s next speaker, who in turn could preside over the House in a future contested presidential election. The winners of all the races examined by The Post — those for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, Senate and House — will hold some measure of power overseeing American elections.' (WAPO) Gifted link below.
https://wapo.st/3e8kaYX