IT'S STILL A JUMP SHOT FOR NOVEMBER 8
Knowledgeable observers now believe that the Dobbs backlash is fading from the election-winning levels of this summer that saw a surprise victory for choice in Kansas and Democratic candidates winning seats that were thought Republican-friendly in upstate New York and Alaska, that seemed to portend a building blue wave that might allow Democrats to hold the House majority in November. There is an argument to be made that the issue fading has as much to do with the failure of the Democrats to make choice the major issue of the election that it should be, coupled with the reduction in Democratic political advertising at the same moment the GOP is vastly increasing their spending.
It appears that popular concern is refocusing on inflation and economic woes. The RNC has been pushing this and claiming that these concerns are now fueling a Republican return. These concerns are real. Here in Los Angeles, in one week, gasoline prices have returned to early summer levels; I just paid $6.00/gallon for regular at the “cheap” station in my neighborhood. People pay attention to the gasoline prices more than they do to other inflation indicatos, since there is little way to reduce their expenditure on gasoline, while the food budget can be modified if prices go up. Democratic momentum has been directly tied to declining gas prices since July. Today, Saudi Arabia led OPEC in announcing a reduction in production of 2 million barrels a day, which will take effect in November. The White House had been pulling out all the stops in trying to prevent that, unsuccessfully. File that away in your folder of whether Saudi Arabia is an ally of the United States or of the GOP. (My bet is the latter)
Additionally, 40 percent of those polled say the economy is not good for them. These economic issues coming to a head just before the election throw off calculations; people might have recently begin thinking about their electoral choice are the ones whose decisions are most likely to be affected by such things.
All this said, the actual picture on the ground seems muddled.
There are two new polls out today in Georgia; one of which appears to have gotten much of the latest Walker scandal. Both show strong numbers of Sen. Warnock. The GOP-leaning Inside Advantage poll from October 4th gives Warnock a 4 point edge, while a SurveyUSA poll conducted from September 30th to October 4th gives him a massive 12 point advantage.
In Pennsylvania, a new Monmouth poll has Fetterman up 48%-43%, with signs that Fetterman’s support is solidifying while Oz has real problems with Pennsylvania voters. Fetterman has a personal rating of 48% favorable to 44% unfavorable, similar to his 47%–42% rating three weeks ago. Oz continues to hold a net negative personal rating of 36% favorable to 53% unfavorable, which is similar to three weeks ago (36%–52%).
According to the poll, 48% of voers will either definitely or probably vote for Fetterman in November, similar to his 49% support level in Monmouth’s prior poll, except that his “definite” support has increased from 32% to 37%.
Oz has seen a slight increase in support from 39% three weeks ago to 43%, though only 25% are definitely backing him. Slightly more Pennsylvania voters continue to say they definitely will not vote for Oz (46%) than completely rule out Fetterman (40%).
In the Suffolk University/USA Today Poll, the first they’ve conducted since June, Fetterman leads 46%-40%, which is down three points from the nine-point 46%-37%, lead he held in the Suffolk/USA Today survey taken in June. This is not good for Oz, given that McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund spent $2.8 million for him on attack ads against Fetterman, going after him for being “soft on crime” and questioning his health over the last month.
Additionally, the Senate Leadership Fund and the RNC have both drastically increased advertising aimed at Latinos in Nevada, where the race between Cortez-Mastro and Republican Adam Laxalt is close.
If Democrats are to be successful in delivering on promises made in 2020 by the 20204 campaign, they need to win a net two senate seats, to overcome the opposition of Manchin and Sinema to any filibuster carveouts or an overturning of the filibuster altogether. Winning only a net one seat would prevent any change, since both Manchin and Sinema are up for re-election in 2024and therefore impervious to any attempt to get them to change their positions.
Given that Mandela Barnes is still down 6 points 34 days out, Democrats have to keep Arizona, which looks likely; keep Nevada, which is questionable; keep Georgia, which is possible; and flip Pennsylvania, which the Cook Report changed back to “leans Democrat” after today’s polls.
It’s still a jump shot.
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1/ MBS wants Trump re-elected. Simple.
2/ “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” Always surprises me how folks can hold their rights so loosely but hold their money dear.
Summary of challenges the Democrats have in one state.
NEVADA NEVADA NEVADA
- Senator Catherine Cortez Masto remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country. Gov. Steve Sisolak is fighting his most formidable challenger yet. And the state’s three House Democrats could all lose their seats.
- The contest between Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt appears within the margin of error — and that’s even after Cortez Masto vastly outspent Laxalt before Labor Day. Republicans have long viewed the race as their best pickup opportunity but it’s now all the more critical that Democrats hold down the seat as races have tightened in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
- elections in Nevada are to be held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Nevada, one from each of the state's four congressional districts.
- Organizers in both parties say they see the same phenomenon developing, as do major Latino groups and the powerful Culinary Workers Union: Disgruntled over the economy and unhappy with their post-pandemic job quality, these voters, many of whom Democratic groups identify as once lifelong supporters, could sit this one out.
- A depressed turnout, however, is an ominous prospect for Democrats in particular. It could have implications for the state’s bid to hold the first primary contest in the 2024 presidential cycle.
- While the economy may be the most challenging hurdle for Democrats this year, it is not the only one: Republicans and nonpartisan voters make up nearly 60 percent of the Nevada electorate, which historically has lower turnout in midterm elections.
- The state’s transient population has made building a reliable base of voters difficult, with would-be voters leaving in search of work elsewhere, as more children of immigrants in the state reach voting age.
- “The path to victory all runs through the Hispanic community,” said Xochitl Hinojosa, a Democratic consultant who has worked in the state. “Democrats are finally realizing, we’ve invested in Black voters significantly over decades, and we’ve been successful, but we’ve assumed Hispanics will turn out for us, and that’s not been the case.”
- A depressed turnout, however, is an ominous prospect for Democrats in particular. It could have implications for the state’s bid to hold the first primary contest in the 2024 presidential cycle.
- While the economy may be the most challenging hurdle for Democrats this year, it is not the only one: Republicans and nonpartisan voters make up nearly 60 percent of the Nevada electorate, which historically has lower turnout in midterm elections.
- The House Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Democratic leadership, has reserved more than $11 million in advertising slots in the Las Vegas market for a final blitz.(Various sources)
It's not a piece of cake!