From another website: By overturning Roe, the Supreme Court has reshaped the 2022 midterm election as Democrats have gained an average of 5 points in the last 9 post-Roe polls. Democrats Are No Longer Facing A Wave Election There is a combination of factors at work to explain the turnaround in the polling for Democrats, but the biggest one is the overturn of Roe. The Supreme Court changed the scope of the midterm election. Any poll that finds that Roe is not an important issue to voters is a poll that is either outdated or methodologically questionable.
Can you bear this good news? I had to check out Simon Rosenberg's blog and bring back some more.
All thanks to TCinLA.
'We are pleased elements of this work have been cited in new articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Susan Milligan in US News, John Skolnick in Salon and AB Stoddard in The Bulwark. Simon did an in-depth election review with Ian Masters last night for his radio show/podcast, and we are hosting pop-up political/poll briefings to explore this changing and bluer election environment today at 4pm ET and Friday at 1230pm ET.'
'A review of recent Senate polling strongly suggests if the election were held today Democrats would retain the Senate and perhaps even pick up a few seats. The NYTimes has a good Senate overview today, and that new polling from Future Majority finds a far better Senate landscape for Democrats:
AZ – Kelly leads Masters, 48-39, Lamon 47-41. He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March. '
GA – Warnock leads Walker 48-44. He trailed 48-49 in March.
NH – Hassan leads Bolduc 49-40. They didn’t poll NH in March.
NV – Cortez Masto leads Laxalt 46-43. She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.
Source: About NDN
'NDN is a leading liberal think tank and advocacy organization based in Washington, DC.
At the very core of NDN’s understanding of the world is that a “new politics” - driven by enormous changes in demography, media and technology, economics and geopolitics - is being born in the United States and around the globe. NDN, its Fellows and its network of leaders and thinkers attempt to interpret and explain these changes, and offer innovative solutions to help policy makers and elected officials meet the new challenges presented by these new times.'
Perhaps, with this bundle I'll sleep better tonight.
This is excellent news, but the Democrats HAVE to campaign on this stuff, and help people understand that giving people a better life is NOT socialism..... And with SCOTUS primed to consider Moore v Parker from North Carolina next session, it is imperative that Biden and the Dems realize the real existential threat we face. If SCOTUS decides Moore the way I suspect they will (it was a state case with no federal component - they went looking for it), our votes will no longer count if we are in red states, as the state legislatures will be able to determine who wins state elections (and even national elections) and the decision would prevent the state executive or courts from restricting what the legislature could do in administering elections and counting the votes. And we KNOW from Clarence Thomas's list of rights he feels must be overturned that the Court eagerly awaits the red states that will gin up the cases against Griswold, Lawrence, Obergefell, maybe even Loving, though that would be embarrassing to Thomas (unless he and Ginni aren't getting along.....). The last time the Supreme Court was enlarged to nine justices in 1868, it was because there were nine US Circuit Courts. Today there are 13 US Circuit Courts.....and to satisfy Justice Thomas, we have history and tradition - the number of US Supreme Court justices traditionally equaled the number of US Circuit Courts. Ipso facto.....
Thomas just may have done Democrats an even bigger favor by naming all the rights he plans to target. I know the LGBTQ+ community will not sit idly by and allow their rights to be eradicated. Even the older white traditionalist GOP voters will not take too kindly to the idea that Medicare and Social Security are also in the bulls' eye of this court. And the mixed-race couples all over this country (I have no idea the numbers) might wake up and realize that Ginni is not going to be able to save them after all. If America's sleeping giants arouse and arise (I'm speaking of the nonvoters, the fence riders, and so-called Independents) 2022 might prove to be a most amazing year after all.
All quite true, but the Dems are going to have to hit this on every media channel out there, particularly the ones the younger people use. Trump won in 2016 because 46.9% of eligible voters did not bother to cast ballots, and many of them (probably most of them) were younger voters who felt their votes would not make a difference. Well, now they have had five years to learn their votes would have made a difference. Democrats must learn (over and over again) that to have a powerful voice in your government, you HAVE to WIN elections.....no other way.....
Professional writing news but right now it's just a little cloud out on the horizon, so once it becomes more than just potential good news , I'll share it. I'm superstitious about sharing good news too early.
There is one other factor we may have in our favor - the grim truth that in the Covid pandemic of the past two years, Republicans have been far more unwilling to be vaccinated, and thus have suffered far more deaths from Covid than Democrats. Obviously, really big leads by Republicans can't be overcome this way, but most Congresspersons and Senators are not elected by landslides. Wouldn't it be ironic if the Republicans lost a number of their closer races because they killed off many of their older voters (the ones who vote most often)? In some southern states the ratio of Republicans dying of Covid compared to Democrats approached 3:1..... We shall see, but I have not read any pundit or news report that mentions this at all. It may not have much of an effect, but you never know.....
I believe that is what Justice Roberts “worried” about in urging “his” court not to overturn Roe v. Wade “at this time” while siding with Dobbs.
Well. Oopsie Woopsie. Also today, FiveThirtyEight poll has Crist ahead of Desantis. Many here saying we can thank the Supreme Court for that.
Thank you for update, TC. Have put a blessing on your crafting of new book. Here’s thinking the creative skies have cleared a bit for many artists. Feeling it.
Perhaps people are starting to pay attention. I hope this inspires the pols to beat the drum on how SCOTUS is preparing to strip us of our rights and set us up for permanent minority rule. Maybe that and the 1/6 GQP fiasco just might get us over the hump?
Hopefully the anger over the SC overreach will last until November, but we’ll see. Maybe this will finally activate the fence sitters and purity voters to get off their asses and vote Blue, no matter who…hopefully.
This is fantastic news! But we cannot stop this momentum. It’s up to us to help the Dems and progressive Independents maintain the House and gain more seats in the Senate so we can put Manchin and Sinema in a corner for some much needed time out.
Thank you TC for continuing to shine a light for understanding with your writing.
We cannot all be excellent writers, but we can keep the oxygen and continue controlling the narrative. We’ve let the Radical Republicans control it for too long!
Let’s keep talking with our family, friends, neighbors and anyone else who will listen.
Also, the GOP increasingly owns gun violence and mass murder. The Fourth of July massacre even ruined a patriotic holiday. People are increasingly unhappy hearing their answer: “Too Bad. Buy more guns, jerks.”
Can you bear this good news? I had to check out Simon Rosenberg's blog and bring back some more.
All thanks to TCinLA.
'We are pleased elements of this work have been cited in new articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Susan Milligan in US News, John Skolnick in Salon and AB Stoddard in The Bulwark. Simon did an in-depth election review with Ian Masters last night for his radio show/podcast, and we are hosting pop-up political/poll briefings to explore this changing and bluer election environment today at 4pm ET and Friday at 1230pm ET.'
'A review of recent Senate polling strongly suggests if the election were held today Democrats would retain the Senate and perhaps even pick up a few seats. The NYTimes has a good Senate overview today, and that new polling from Future Majority finds a far better Senate landscape for Democrats:
AZ – Kelly leads Masters, 48-39, Lamon 47-41. He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March. '
GA – Warnock leads Walker 48-44. He trailed 48-49 in March.
NH – Hassan leads Bolduc 49-40. They didn’t poll NH in March.
NV – Cortez Masto leads Laxalt 46-43. She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.
Source: About NDN
'NDN is a leading liberal think tank and advocacy organization based in Washington, DC.
At the very core of NDN’s understanding of the world is that a “new politics” - driven by enormous changes in demography, media and technology, economics and geopolitics - is being born in the United States and around the globe. NDN, its Fellows and its network of leaders and thinkers attempt to interpret and explain these changes, and offer innovative solutions to help policy makers and elected officials meet the new challenges presented by these new times.'
Perhaps, with this bundle I'll sleep better tonight.
That does indeed all sound very good.
Thanks Fern
Wonderful!! Thanks Fern!
This is excellent news, but the Democrats HAVE to campaign on this stuff, and help people understand that giving people a better life is NOT socialism..... And with SCOTUS primed to consider Moore v Parker from North Carolina next session, it is imperative that Biden and the Dems realize the real existential threat we face. If SCOTUS decides Moore the way I suspect they will (it was a state case with no federal component - they went looking for it), our votes will no longer count if we are in red states, as the state legislatures will be able to determine who wins state elections (and even national elections) and the decision would prevent the state executive or courts from restricting what the legislature could do in administering elections and counting the votes. And we KNOW from Clarence Thomas's list of rights he feels must be overturned that the Court eagerly awaits the red states that will gin up the cases against Griswold, Lawrence, Obergefell, maybe even Loving, though that would be embarrassing to Thomas (unless he and Ginni aren't getting along.....). The last time the Supreme Court was enlarged to nine justices in 1868, it was because there were nine US Circuit Courts. Today there are 13 US Circuit Courts.....and to satisfy Justice Thomas, we have history and tradition - the number of US Supreme Court justices traditionally equaled the number of US Circuit Courts. Ipso facto.....
Thomas just may have done Democrats an even bigger favor by naming all the rights he plans to target. I know the LGBTQ+ community will not sit idly by and allow their rights to be eradicated. Even the older white traditionalist GOP voters will not take too kindly to the idea that Medicare and Social Security are also in the bulls' eye of this court. And the mixed-race couples all over this country (I have no idea the numbers) might wake up and realize that Ginni is not going to be able to save them after all. If America's sleeping giants arouse and arise (I'm speaking of the nonvoters, the fence riders, and so-called Independents) 2022 might prove to be a most amazing year after all.
All quite true, but the Dems are going to have to hit this on every media channel out there, particularly the ones the younger people use. Trump won in 2016 because 46.9% of eligible voters did not bother to cast ballots, and many of them (probably most of them) were younger voters who felt their votes would not make a difference. Well, now they have had five years to learn their votes would have made a difference. Democrats must learn (over and over again) that to have a powerful voice in your government, you HAVE to WIN elections.....no other way.....
Loved that “history and tradition” dig….
Thank you TC for a glimmer of hope. Now if everyone gets out and votes and the state legislatures stay out of it we may prevail.
It looks like the good news that is happening for me is rubbing off on the country. :-)
What good news is happening for you, TC?
Professional writing news but right now it's just a little cloud out on the horizon, so once it becomes more than just potential good news , I'll share it. I'm superstitious about sharing good news too early.
As we say in the theater, break a leg!
Good luck!!
It sounds more like a star, but I'll say no more. 💫
🤩
Fingers crossed, avoiding black cats and ladders.
There is one other factor we may have in our favor - the grim truth that in the Covid pandemic of the past two years, Republicans have been far more unwilling to be vaccinated, and thus have suffered far more deaths from Covid than Democrats. Obviously, really big leads by Republicans can't be overcome this way, but most Congresspersons and Senators are not elected by landslides. Wouldn't it be ironic if the Republicans lost a number of their closer races because they killed off many of their older voters (the ones who vote most often)? In some southern states the ratio of Republicans dying of Covid compared to Democrats approached 3:1..... We shall see, but I have not read any pundit or news report that mentions this at all. It may not have much of an effect, but you never know.....
They made America great again with their permanent departures.
TC, honestly, you cannot help yourself when it comes to sizzlin’. LOL 😂
I believe that is what Justice Roberts “worried” about in urging “his” court not to overturn Roe v. Wade “at this time” while siding with Dobbs.
Well. Oopsie Woopsie. Also today, FiveThirtyEight poll has Crist ahead of Desantis. Many here saying we can thank the Supreme Court for that.
Thank you for update, TC. Have put a blessing on your crafting of new book. Here’s thinking the creative skies have cleared a bit for many artists. Feeling it.
Salud all! 🗽
Perhaps people are starting to pay attention. I hope this inspires the pols to beat the drum on how SCOTUS is preparing to strip us of our rights and set us up for permanent minority rule. Maybe that and the 1/6 GQP fiasco just might get us over the hump?
Perhaps the pendulum has swung too far? Perhaps the "silent majority" (sorry, just had to use that) is awakened?
Hopefully the anger over the SC overreach will last until November, but we’ll see. Maybe this will finally activate the fence sitters and purity voters to get off their asses and vote Blue, no matter who…hopefully.
Thanks for this good news, TCinLA. Need it given the black clouds that have been gathering......
This is fantastic news! But we cannot stop this momentum. It’s up to us to help the Dems and progressive Independents maintain the House and gain more seats in the Senate so we can put Manchin and Sinema in a corner for some much needed time out.
Thank you TC for continuing to shine a light for understanding with your writing.
We cannot all be excellent writers, but we can keep the oxygen and continue controlling the narrative. We’ve let the Radical Republicans control it for too long!
Let’s keep talking with our family, friends, neighbors and anyone else who will listen.
Exactly right. If I help you do that, "my work is done here." :-)
Thank you for your hard work!
Also, the GOP increasingly owns gun violence and mass murder. The Fourth of July massacre even ruined a patriotic holiday. People are increasingly unhappy hearing their answer: “Too Bad. Buy more guns, jerks.”