CLOSING IN - UPDATED AGAIN - AND YET AGAIN - AND YET AGAIN AGAIN - AND NOW MASTO TAKES IT!

Updated 6:20pm PST: The final tally from Clark County put Masto over Laxalt by 4500+, with 10K left in Washoe County where she will get a majority. NBC declared her the winner.

DEMOCRATS HOLD THE SENATE!!!!!

UPDATED EARLY EVENING SATUDAY: Really, really good news:

The first major Maricopa County “same day” votes were reported. In 2020, Trump got these by 56-58% - Lake got 51% of this first batch and it wasn’t enough to overtake Katie Hobbs! And with the remaining votes to be reported (probably tomorrow and Monday), if Lake gets the same percentage, she will fail to beat Hobbs. Once again, Trump’s picks are “under-performing.”

Also, WA03 was just called for the Democrat, an upset over an expected Republican win. This narrows McCarthy’s possible “majority” to 219.

At this point, it might be good to let the Republicans have the House for the next two years, with a “majority” they cannot do anything with other than make complete fools of themselves, and turn themselves into a great target in 2024, with Democrats in the Senate blocking anything they try to do. Democrats would not be defending “performance” or putting up with “it’s time for a big change, you had the House since 2018.” What will happen will happen, I’ll be OK with a majority for us and defeat for them, but if they “win,” this will not be something to moan about. Of course, this would mean the “bees” would have to be herded through the lame duck “blizzard” to get the debt ceiling put beyond reach of these idiots, and a big enough aid bill to Ukraine to frustrate the traitor caucus. But Pelosi has a big switch in-hand.

UPDATED MID-MORNING SATURDAY: Really good news:

Last night, Democrat Adrian Fontes won his race in Arizona against election-denying, Trump-endorsed Mark Finchem. Finchem attended the inaccurately named ‘Stop the Steal’ rally before the January 6th Trump terrorist attack, and said he wouldn’t have certified President Joe Biden’s win.

Another big deal last night, as Democrat Cisco Aguilar won Nevada’s race for Secretary of State, defeating Republican election denier Jim Marchant. Aguilar ran on protecting access to the ballot box, so that puts focus on how voters feel about the intimidation tactics of the Trump thugs. Marchant was the organizer of a national movement of election-deniers to take over Secretary of State offices. So far, all of them have lost whose election has been finally determined.

UPDATED AGAIN - SATURDAY MORNING: Here is how things stand:

Right now, the map stands at 217 for Republicans and 212 for Democrats. (Thank you so much, New York Democrats, those four losses really matter, don’t they?)

There are now still six toss-ups left to resolve. These are AZ01, AZ06, CA13, CA22, CA41, WA03. The Arizona seats should be called today. The California seats will likely not be known before the end of the month. Washington could be called this week. All are very close and Democrats are leading in the majority and have a very good chance in all as updates are filed.

Should Republicans win the majority, their majority is only likely to be one or two seats. Kevin McCarthy won’t be able to do anything that he promised, as the GOP majority is likely to be paralyzed by infighting and dysfunction. On the other hand, should Democrats take it with no margin for error, Nancy Pelosi can guide them to accomplishments in the new congress because they are united.

Sorry to say, Lauren Boebert has been declared the likely winner in her race by a margin less than 100 votes.

In the Senate, Sen. Cortez Masto (D) is expected to take the lead with the release of the next set of results.

UPDATE: NBC has declared Mark Kelly the winner for Senate in Arizona. There is another report of votes in Nevada that may decide that race.

With the most recent report of ballots out of Clark County, Catherin Cortez Masto is within 798 votes of Adam Laxalt statewide, and there are 20,000 ballots to be released about 11pm EST from Washoe County (Reno), that will put her over the top. There are approximately 25,000 votes remaining in Clark County. She has taken all reports from there by 2:1 over Laxalt.

Basically, the race in Nevada should be called in the Democrat’s favor tonight.

The Cook Report already called Arizona for Mark Kelly this morning.

The most recent House estimate gives the Repuiblicans 220 seats, two more than needed to have a majority, and only a 3-vote margin for whoever becomes Speaker if the Republicans take the remaining seats. Given that caucus, that is an ungovernable number. They won’t even be able to decide who to haul before their proposed Star Chamber “investigations.”

However, the three seats that make the difference are in California, where the tallys are within a few points of each other and where less than 60% of the vote has been tallied.

In other words, it’s still a “jump ball” for control of the House, with the final count not even starting till next week after the deadline has passed on November15 to receive mail-in ballots.

If this happens, I think we can expect Nancy Pelosi to remain leading the House Democrats, since there is no one with a better switch in hand and the ability to herd the bees through the blizzard to the goal. It will be her final call on stage, and it would be a performance for the ages, to see what she can accomplish with a united caucus and a 2 vote margin. Nobody else - no Speaker ever before - could do this.

The Republicans today look like the kid who used to bully me in fourth grade after I walked up to him one morning and punched him in his face without warning, hard enough to bloody his nose. (Yes, he left me alone for the next 8 years of school)

Today, Senators Red Skull, the Konztitooshinul Skolar from Utah, and RonJon sent a letter to their senate colleagues suggesting a delay in voting for leadership positions in the next Congress, saying “We need to have serious discussions within our conference as to why and what we can do to improve our chances in 2024.”

So, open thread here for the weekend for everyone - paid and free - to take your best shot at giving them the advice they really need to hear.

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