A VICTORY FOR DEMOCRACY IN POLAND - BUT THERE IS LOTS LEFT TO DO IN ORDER TO WIN

Against the odds, while Law and Justice - Poland’s nationalist ruling party (PiS in Polish) - won the most votes in Sunday’s election, it is heading for defeat. A bloc of three opposition parties secured a comfortable majority of ballots cast, as counting neared completion Today. The Polish opposition, led by former Polish prime minister and former European Council president Donald Tusk as head of the Civic Coalition, was able to defied the odds, thanks to a mobilized anti-PiS coalition and the organic strength of Poland’s civil society. Though PiS won a plurality with 35.4 percent of the vote, it does not have a path to a governing coalition. The opposition Civic Platform, led by Tusk, came in second with 30.7 percent but has two coalition partners - the Third Way and the Left party- which would give it a majority.

The opposition portrayed this election as the last, best chance to forestall Poland’s descent into autocracy. Exit polls suggested opposition support relied heavily on younger voters, highly educated urban dwellers and Poles living in the industrialized western half of the country.

The election saw a 73% turnout, the largest in Poland since the 1989 election that led to the formation of the first non-Communist government in then-Soviet-controlled Eastern Europe, with majorities of over 80% in cities of western Poland that are more connected historically to central and western Europe as well as the major cities of Warsaw, Gdansk, Lublin, and Wroclaw, where voters stood in line for many hours, polling stations ran out of ballots, and some people were able to vote only long after the polls had been scheduled to close.

Civic Coalition and both of the other two smaller democratic parties also went out of their way to ensure that women featured prominently in their campaigns, and that may have made a difference too, as did the opposition’s promise to end Poland’s harsh abortion restrictions. Exit polls show that women voted in larger numbers, and for opposition parties. Several young women candidates had exceptionally good results.

This turnout was produced by positive emotions - Donald Tusk, leader of the Civic Coalition, pointedly used the language of civic patriotism rather than angry nationalism. Thousands of volunteers came together to organize election-monitoring teams. Hundreds of thousands of people marched in two major demonstrations in Warsaw, carrying Polish and European Union flags. The existence of three opposition parties meant different messages were heard by different parts of the electorate, on the center-right as well as the center-left. Some of the candidates attacked PiS. Some used the language of unity and called for an end to polarization. A major development was the unexpectedly poor performance of a small, far-right, xenophobic party, Konfederacja, which may also mean voters were attracted to the opposition’s unified support for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees.

Anger is also a powerful emotion; over the past year, PiS made a lot of people angry. Repeated PiS corruption scandals - corruption being an inevitable result of politicized judges, police, and prosecutors - helped the opposition. PiS’s decision to spend heavily on social programs as the election approached led to increased inflation. The decision by PKN Orlen, a state-owned oil company, to lower gasoline prices in advance of the vote, caused shortages around the country, as well as general mockery.

Since it was first given power in the election of 2015 PiS used a series of controversial reforms to bend the judiciary under its control, prompting unprecedented E.U. censure. Supported by staunch support among conservative Catholics, PiS curtailed abortion rights and demonized the country’s LGBTQ+ community. It bullied and co-opted leading media outlets and even altered electoral laws ahead of this weekend in a bid to boost chances for reelection.

“Sunday’s vote was certainly not fair and barely free,” noted the Financial Times, explaining how the ruling faction had “marshaled all the resources of a heavily politicized state apparatus” to secure reelection. “The PiS authorities increased the number of polling stations in its rural heartlands but failed to update boundaries to give more seats to Poland’s liberal cities in line with population growth.”

With rounds of parliamentary wrangling expected to follow as a coalition government of Center-Right, Center and Center-Left parties is built, which may not emerge until around Christmas, much remains to be accomplished.

Once the opposition is able to take power, they face a complicated task of unwinding eight years of hardening illiberalism in the Polish state. A deeply entrenched populist system, a president loyal to the Law and Justice party, a puppet Constitutional Tribunal and Supreme Court are just a few of the problems a new government would face

But first, PiS has to concede defeat, and it seems far away from doing so. A final PiS attempt to retain power cannot be excluded. PiS party officials have tried to buy off members of Parliament from other parties before, and they could try again. Polish President Andrzej Duda, a PiS loyalist whose term lasts until May 2025, may give his former party the first chance to form a government, even though it looks unlikely to be able to do so. Regardless, PiS will remain a large, hostile minority party. Its members control all major state institutions. The president has a lot of negative power, including the ability to veto legislation and block appointments. The unpicking of PiS’s efforts to co-opt and control the judiciary alone will be a legal and constitutional nightmare.

Millions of the party’s voters will still believe what state television has been telling them: that Tusk is a German agent and the opposition are traitors. Convincing them otherwise will take a long, long time.

Europe has a long history of countries consolidating democracy after decades of authoritarian rule, but no experience of restoring democracy after the disruptions and constitutional chicanery of elected illiberal governments, which stacked various state institutions with loyal apparatchiks.

The current opposition will face a task that no one has ever had to face before: it will attempt to dismantle an illiberal system that was established in the last eight years by seemingly democratic means.

An E.U. diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters, told Politico: “The result should lead to better functioning of the E.U. where the E.U. truly reflects its values and principles, particularly solidarity and responsibility. The rejection of far-right policies should serve as an example to other people, and this should hopefully lead to the E.U. becoming stronger in the face of geopolitical threats.”

As Anne Appelbaum put it, writing today in The Atlantic, “Even if you don’t live in Poland, don’t care about Poland, and can’t find Poland on a map, take note: The victory of the Polish opposition proves that autocratic populism can be defeated, even after an unfair election. Nothing is inevitable about the rise of autocracy or the decline of democracy. Invest your time in political and civic organization if you want to create change, because sometimes it works.”

Poland will be a proving ground for the rule that the real fight begins after the election is won.

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