WHO WON?

Earlier tonight, President Biden expressed hope that a deal on the Republican-manufactured debt ceiling crisis would be resolved by midnight. Just now, Republican representative Patrick McHenry, a member of McCarthy’s negotiating team, told reporters that “I concur” that the possibility of a resolution is at hand now.

Bearing in mind that William Goldman’s Three Rules of Hollywood - Nobody. Knows. Anything. - applies to more than just Hollywood and movies, and that a deal is not a deal until both sides stand at the microphones and say “Here’s the deal,” it appears we may, perhaps, possibly, avoid tossing the world’s strongest capitalist economy into a dumpster fire for the hell of it.

Let’s also bear in mind that yes, these “negotiations” should not have happened, and that the House GOP have cemented for all to see their unseriousness, and their overt desire to be traitors.

We can say what we want about the Democrats not having taken care of this last fall when they could, except they couldn’t, since there were two senators - Manchin and Sinema - who claim nominal membership in the Democratic caucus who would have been just fine with turning a 51-49 Democratic majority into a 49-51 Democratic minority on a vote to raise the debt ceiling back in 2022.

We can argue that Biden wasn’t brave enough to stick his finger in the GOP’s eye with an invocation of the Fourteenth Amendment, that he should have told them that was on the table back at the SOTU.

What “should have been” and “what is” were always two different things, and no matter how much I wish it was otherwise, “what is” - a credible threat by domestic political terrorists to crash the United States - required that negotiations happen, like it or not.

There have been indications for the past few days that House Republicans and the White House are making real progress. Last night, it seemed that the two sides have all but finalized the spending portion, which was the most contentious part of the negotiation.

Based on these leaked outlines, this appears to be a much better deal for Biden and Democrats than most of us thought possible. What’s most important is that the budget caps are only for two years and they’re based on FY 2023 and not FY 2022 numbers. The agreement also locks in rules about the 12 coming spending bills for FY 2024 that will prevent Republicans coming back with new demands this fall, threatening to shut down the government.

There was no deal that was going to be “good” after the Republicans took the House.

But despite the Professional Hand-Wringers claiming that Biden was “out negotiated” by McCarthy because McCarthy and his bullshit were all over the media while the president remained silent, the truth is this leaves the House Republicans looking like they got a thin deal and face saving changes. The best negotiating strategy is always to let the loser think he’s the winner.

The deal would raise the debt ceiling for two years until after the 2024 presidential election, in exchange for two years of spending limits mostly focused on domestic government programs. The debt ceiling is not a weapon the Republicans can deploy in the 2024 elections, and if Democrats continue to overperform as they have in 2018, 2020 and 2022, there is a good chance of having a majority in both houses of congress that allow for disposal of the issue permanently.

The Biden administration would also agree as part of the deal to cut some funding for the Internal Revenue Service approved last year, which lets Republicans claim a victory, that they clawed back some of the money going to the mythical “army of IRS agents” who are going to harass ordinary working folks, when in fact it really wasn’t possible to spend that $10 billion this year anyway, while using the money to offset the spending cuts on domestic programs. The only “win” McCarthy has here is cosmetic.

Defense and Veterans spending continues at the level Biden outlined in his FY 2024 budget. No freeze there. Non-defense discretionary spending is frozen at roughly 2023 levels and for just two years. That is in fact A Big Fucking Deal.

Dark Brandon has won. Again. He didn’t “fall into his old placating ways.” McCarthy and his goon squad have thrown “B’rer Brandon” into the briar patch. And they’re the ones covered with the tar baby.

The big unresolved problem is whether or not McCarthy can deliver a “majority of the majority,” as required by “The Hastert Rule” Republicans follow. One can certainly take as a given that the Taliban 20 won’t be aboard - they want a default, which was why they forced McCarthy to pass the ‘budget bill” he did, knowing that nothing in it was acceptable to any Democrat. He’ll have to deliver more than the “Biden 18, because there are enough Democrats in the House who dislike the negotiations, and their result, that whatever coalition passes the deal - and it will be a bipartisan vote by the realists on both sides who recognize that default is not an option - will likely be a bare majority of both parties. The White House will need to make clear to Democrats that this is a shit sandwich that isn’t completely shitty, to whip Democratic votes to get it passed. There are those on the Democratic side who really do think that they should force McCarthy to pass it entirely with Republican votes, and if he can’t get the votes for his own demands, let’s just go over the cliff.

If the deal that can be seen in outline now is the deal that is agreed on, Democrats are going to need to look at it the way they now look at the 2022 election, when they managed to choke off the red wave and turn it into a pink puddle. Add to the campaign points for 2024 the demand that the debt ceiling be done away with when a Democratic majority takes office in January 2025.

This deal isn’t great. There shouldn’t have been a negotiation at all. But this deal is a fairly small payment for the hostage, given what was seemed likely a week ago. Politically, Biden will be the victor and McCarthy will be the loser. When this is concluded, Biden will stay president, at least until January 20, 2025. Quiverin’ Qevin will be gone before Labor Day. Should he manage to hang on to his speakership, he’ll be more diminished than he was after winning on the 15th vote. He won’t be able to get anything done. And if he is toast, if he’s defeated, the Republicans have no one on their side of the aisle capable of achieving anything as Speaker between now and 2024. So if the Fwee-dumb Kawkuss “wins” by removing him, they will lose even more solidly in the end.

The real winner will be whoever offers a debt ceiling solution that can actually become law. Indisputably, that’s Biden, who can almost certainly get whatever debt limit hike he favors through the Democratic Senate, which has imposed a no-filibuster rule for debt limit votes only. Democrats hold 213 seats to the GOP’s 222 in the House. They can probably pick off the necessary five Republicans to pass the bill. There will be no Democratic votes for the Republican bill, which McCarthy himself sold to his members by promising it would never become actual law. Such a situation would mean McCarthy will be branded the one who caused the default. He knows that, and he knows that if the Republicans receive the blame as they did in 2013, they’ll pay the price in 2024.

You can support That’s Another Fine Mess with your paid subscription for only $7/month or $70/year, saving $14. I’ll really appreciate you doing so.

Comments are for paid subscribers.