WHERE WE STAND NOW

Stand still while I dump this bucket of ice over your head, or I’ll keep doing it till you do.

As of tonight, Democrats control the Senate with 50 votes and the Vice President breaking tie votes. It Warnock is re-elected on December 6, that gives a 51 vote majority.

A 51 vote majority will not see the filibuster ended, or even carve outs for important legislation (maybe there is wiggle room on this point, but don’t bet more than a quarter on it happening). That’s because Manchin and Sinema are still Manchin and Sinema and that is TWO SENATORS not one.

If the Democrats “run the table” with the congressional seats that are still not decided, of the seats they can reasonably contest, that will give them a bare 218 seat majority. No margin for error. And doing that involves flipping three seats in California that were flipped Democrat in 2018 and then retaken by Republicans in 2020 despite Biden winning a majority in each of those districts, and in which the Republican incumbent currently has a lead though the count is slow and less than 50% at this point. In other words, it’s doable, but there is the furthest thing from any guarantee. They were right when they said it’s a narrow path.

So. The very best outcome is 51 Senate seats and 218 House seats. And in the 2024 cycle, Democrats have to defend 24 Senate seats while the Republicans only have to defend 10.

What we won is the Republicans won’t get to blow up the planet with a debt default, and we won’t leave the Ukrainians to face Putin alone.

Those will be the major accomplishments between January 3, 2023 and January 3, 2025.

Thank God for Nancy Pelosi, because there isn’t another Speaker in history who could accomplish anything with such a bare majority. Democrats now are far more unified in their sense of purpose, and everyone has a healthy dose of reality after seeing what happened in this last election. Democrats are far better about keeping Da Krazy out of the mainstream than Republicans are, which is why there was such a nice big list of accomplishments to run on this time.

As to all the things we’d like to see done: John Lewis Voting Rights Bill, more solid action on climate change, codifying Roe, those Big Things That Need Doing need to be put top of the list for the 2024 campaign - “If you want nice things, don’t vote Republican.”

There is an outside chance of Roe being dealt with during the lame duck. The House passed a codification of Roe in September and Schumer said the Senate would vote on it in the lame duck. At the time, there was a reliable rumor that ten Republicans would vote yes and block a filibuster. MAYBE that is still the case in the aftermath of Republicans getting wiped out on the issue of Choice in the election.

And if the Republicans win the House majority, it will be with 219 votes. That is not enough for McCarthy to successfully drive the clown car while the other passengers are throwing their shit out the windows at passers-by. This would actually work in our favor, to be able to point at the clown show and tell voters “This is why you can’t have nice things.” Taking back the majority in 2024 might be easier than defending the majority with not a lot of accomplishments voters can understand easily. Whichever way it happens is the way it will happen and we’ll know sometime after Thanksgiving what is what. But don’t be upset if we don’t hold the House majority. That “win” will be ashes in Republican mouths.

The 2024 campaign begins as you read this. Accomplishing what we want and need is not going to happen in one or two election cycles. There is no “instant gratification.” I’ve been working for this stuff since 1960 and I know it won’t be done before I go, even if I live as long as six generations of ancestors who didn’t get mauled by bears or stick uranium in their pants pocket did. If you can’t sign on for that, I suggest you find a different hobby, because this isn’t a hobby.

All that said, I want to end on a very positive note.

You people are amazing. You are fully the equals of the people I write about in my books. You got cauliflower ears calling, hand cramps filling out post cards, and your feet got sore walking neighborhoods. You’re not “summer soldiers.” You did all that even though you were filled with doubt that it would be enough. That’s the same energy the guys who landed on Omaha Beach had.

Because of what YOU did, we’re able to live to fight another day. That’s victory.

It’s a privilege to know you all and an honor that you choose to be my audience. Over the next two years, I promise to work to live up to that. There’s going to be plenty of fine messes to work on to come.

Thank you all for what you did. You’re the heroes.

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