A new national NBC News poll out today found Trump leads Biden by five points - 47-42 - with the former president boasting huge advantages on the border (+35), the economy (+23), and being competent and effective (+16). The poll comes as Biden has the lowest approval rating of his presidency at 37 percent.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey, told NBC : "On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated."
What fucking planet do these people live on???
Respondents said Trump would be more competent and effective, holding a 16 point lead over Biden in the category. Trump also held a 23 point lead over Biden in having the necessary mental and physical health to be president.
How in hell does anyone manage to use the words “competent” and “effective” when thinking of Donald Trump - the most incompetent and ineffective president since Herbert Hoover???
Trump led Biden by 35 points when comparing which candidate would be better at securing the border and controlling immigration. Yet, Biden had a 17 point lead over who would treat immigrants humanely and protect immigrant rights.
The Actual Facts about the border are that by taking 535 immigration actions over its first three years, the Biden administration has already outpaced the 472 immigration-related executive actions undertaken in all four years of President Donald Trump’s term. Partly as result of these efforts, legal immigration is returning to and in some cases surpassing pre-pandemic levels, including refugee admissions on pace to reach the highs of the 1990s; a new border process seeking to discourage irregular arrivals has been adopted; temporary humanitarian protections have been extended to hundreds of thousands of migrants; and enforcement priorities have been focused on narrower categories of unauthorized immigrants. Combined, these changes have fulfilled some of President Joe Biden’s campaign promises, helped bolster the U.S. economy, and reduced fears of seemingly arbitrary enforcement against removable noncitizens.
None of that happened during the Trump years!!
Respondents said Trump would better handle crime and violence with him leading Biden by 21 points.
Back in Reality World, homicides were down 9% in the first half of this year over the same period last year, according to a study of 37 major cities from the Council on Criminal Justice.
State of play: Violent crime rates are generally down across the board.
The Economy: President Biden trailed former President Trump by more than 20 points on the question of which candidate would better handle the economy.
This, despite news this past week that the U.S. didn’t just avoid a recession, we now have the best economy of the past 55 years! U.S. job growth accelerated in January and wages increased by the most in nearly two years, with signs of persistent strength in the labor market. The closely watched employment report from the Labor Department this past Friday also showed the unemployment rate at 3.7% last month, remaining below 4% for two consecutive years, the longest such stretch in more than 50 years.
More jobs were created in 2023 than previously estimated. Resilient demand and strong worker productivity are likely encouraging businesses to hire and retain more employees, a trend that could shield the economy from a recession this year. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month, the largest gain in a year; economists had forecast payrolls increasing 180,000 last month. The economy added 126,000 more jobs in November and December than previously reported. Employment gains last month were across the board, with nearly two-thirds of industries adding jobs, the most in a year. Healthcare payrolls rose by 70,000 jobs, spread across ambulatory, hospitals as well as nursing and residential care facilities. Retail trade employment increased by 45,000 jobs, while manufacturing hired 23,000 more workers. Government payrolls increased by 36,000, driven by federal government hiring as well as local government, excluding education. There were also job gains in construction, transportation and warehousing, utilities, leisure and hospitality sectors.
"The overall picture looks to be one of a still quite strong labor market, and an economy starting 2024 with plenty of forward momentum," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan in New York. Employment gains just in the last year totaled 3.1 million - compare that with Trump’s total job gains in four years of 1.6 million.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher last month. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.
Overall, consumer sentiment, as measured by a long-running survey conducted by the University of Michigan, is the highest in two years, a jump “largely attributed to the continued slowdown of inflation along with stability in labor markets.”
What in hell are these people smoking? I want some!
The survey also showed that 60 percent of registered voters disapprove of Biden’s management of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Just 36 percent of respondents approved of Biden’s handling of the economy, and 34 percent approved of his handling of foreign policy.
Biden had a slight edge over Trump, leading by 2 points, when respondents were asked who would better protect democracy. Biden also led Trump on dealing with abortion by 12 points.
Biden jumped ahead on the poll’s final question asking whom respondents would vote for if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year. Forty-five percent said they would vote for Biden in this instance compared with 43 percent who said Trump.
The poll was conducted from Jan. 26-30 with a total of 1,000 registered voters participating. The poll’s margin of error was 3.1 percentage points.
Interestingly, the Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters released four days ago on January 31, had Biden with a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup. A year ago, Quinnipiac University's December 20, 2023 poll, the same general election matchup was “too close to call”. President Biden received 47 percent support and former President Trump received 46 percent support.
I wish the poll would have included a question for the respondents, asking them what they considered their main source of news. I suspect the Mighty Wurlizter of Inadequates Inc. has been playing loudly 24/7 for many of them.
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Exactly. Every poll needs to have as its FIRST question: "Where do you get your information?" Then lead with that information in every analysis. FWIW, I ignore them all. Working hard to get Biden re-elected no matter what.
Then there's this:
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889
Am I more likely to believe Quinnipiac, which seeks to be objective, or NBC, which claims to have a news department and doesn't?