WHAT ARE THEY THINKING?

The Problem is, They Aren't. Thinking.

Senator Joe Manchin, who must be Mitch McConnell’s favorite Dim-ocrat, managed this past week to throw a monkey wrench in the plans of congressional Democrats to pass the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, publicly claiming there was no need for a bill bigger than $1.5 trillion and that anything more would “risk inflation.” He stuck to his guns in a meeting with the president on Wednesday.

Then he publicly called for a “strategic pause” in pushing further legislation past the “bipartisan” infrastructure bill he and Senator Sinema negotiated with Senate Republicans last month. In the meantime, Sinema has been quietly negotiating “granularly” over the bill - which she also says is too big - questioning the exact costs of each program included in the bill.

Today it was announced that Manchin has now come up with a timeline for his “strategic pause” - 2022, right in the middle of the campaign for the off-year elections.

If the Manchin and Sinema weren’t from states with Republican governors who would be happy to give the Senate majority back to McConnell, I would personally be wishing that something bad would happen to both of them to remove them from their seats. But in a 50-50 Senate, they now control everything Democrats want to do, because nothing can happen without their votes.

I don’t know what sort of logic Manchin is operating on, because this track he wants to follow is the one that guarantees failure, and a certain loss of the House majority - and likely that in the Senate - next fall if this is what he forces Democrats to do.

Manchin’s “bipartisan” infrastructure bill is due for a vote in the House a week from tomorrow, but that is IF there has been a vote on the reconciliation bill in the Senate. The House Progressive Caucus is promising to kill the bipartisan bill if it is brought to a vote without the prior vote in the Senate on their bill. Speaker Pelosi made no firm promise to the House moderates about the September 27 voting deadline, but pulling that risks a complete breakdown of the Democratic majority in the House if both sides make good on their threats not to vote for the other’s bills.

The House Progressives are not a majority of the House, so they cannot push their priorities without cooperation from the Moderates, whose only power is their ability to deny a majority vote. As things look presently, both sides have managed to box themselves into positions where any “give” to the other is seen as a loss of power that neither feel they can afford to lose. On top of that, there are the Scylla and Charibdis in the Senate of one Democratic Senator who feels finally able to wield his power, and another who has made a career out of her fetish for “bipartisanship” after first introducing herself politically as a Green Party “bomb thrower,” who now is more proud of her “across the aisle” relationships than she is of any alliances with her fellow Democrats. A power situation like this is the way mutually-destructive wars happen.

In the meantime, the Republicans have found what they think will be a winning hand for 2022 - to oppose the tax increases that will be needed to pay for both Democratic bills. With the Democrats proceeding full-tilt toward the electoral cliff, the only winners will be the people who are dedicated to making sure government doesn’t work, to prove their point that government shouldn’t be trusted because it doesn’t work.

If the vote on the reconciliation package is delayed to 2022 as Manchin and likely Sinema think it should be, this means that by election day in November 2022, voters will be hearing about how much taxes will go up, without seeing any of what they’re asked to pay for in the form of program start-ups following passage of the reconciliation bill. We have to face the fact that the average American voter knows nothing about the why’s and wherefore’s of the political issues laid out above, that 40 years of Republican miseducation on the issues leaves at least a sizable minority of the electorate opposed to “government spending” on principle, while the others are more likely to vote “no” in the face of uncertainty.

So. If Manchin and Sinema are successful in delaying consideration of the reconciliation bill in the Senate, there is a good chance of the “bipartisan” bill failing in the House, with the result that the Democrats go to the voters in a year having accomplished nothing they can point to as a reason for voters to turn out in the numbers necessary to block the Republicans returning to power in both House and Senate in January 2023.

If that happens, on top of a failure to achieve anything in regards to voting rights reform, what will be in store in November 2024 is the vote that will effectively end the American republic in its 225th year. Regardless of the popular vote in 2024, a political party dedicated to defying any majority that isn’t themselves, with the power to deny vote results at the state level, and then again at the federal level, will be positioned to throw the 2024 election into the House of Representatives, where they already control a majority of the state delegations, to give the presidency to a traitor who is dedicated to the overthrow of the current government.

One would think that, somewhere along the line - even if only thinking of self-preservation - that the legislative Democrats in Washington would realize that playing football with a fragile vase in place of the ball is a recipe for disaster for all concerned.

So far, such realization appears nowhere in sight on either side, while both sides dig themselves further into non-negotiable untenable positions.

If you want to feel discouraged about the future, there’s certainly plenty of reason to do so.

This is the last post at That’s Another Fine Mess that will be available for free in its entirety. As of tomorrow, the free posts will be highlights of the main post - they’ll be the appetizer, but the main course and the dessert will be for paid subscribers.

The main topic this week will be: how do we successfully resolve the situation described in this post?

I’ll present what I think we should consider, and I very much hope all you paid subscribers - and the folks I hope will come along and join - will take your time to leave a reply and continue the conversation.

Comments are limited to paid subscribers. It’s cheap to join this community - only $7/month (two cups of coffee at Starbucks!) Or $70/year, which saves you $14.