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“What happens when a gangster state implodes?” A democracy is born. If the Russians can keep it. And, as the Ukrainians have shown, the new free Russians hopefully inspired will become staunch defenders as well. One. Can hope anyway.

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There is also the possibility of the state falling apart when it is comprised of as many different parts as Russia is, and with so many of the parts having been oppressed by Russians.

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Yes, like I said, will create more democracies, outside Russia like Belarus, some of the ‘stans, as well as some new inside Russia. This should have happened a long time ago, under Gorbechev and Yeltsin. That was a huge fail by the west. I think we did a lot of damage by not diplomatically intervening more when the USSR broke apart. We got consumed in supporting capitalism and naively believed Capitalism would insure democracy. We need to support Democracy as messy as it is when birthed.

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a lot of people, I think, agree with this. but remember that, at the time, this neoliberal horseshit was very much on the upswing and a lot of the policy people here did, in fact, equate capitalism with democracy. wasn't it the Milton Friedman era? I know that be fore and just after this war started, lots of people were seizing the words of guys like Mearsheimer and his ilk to--at least in some very stupid cases--defend Putin and even, to a degree, his invasion. so okay, we missed an opportunity and even okay to NATO expansion being something Putin was very paranoid about. but beyond that, the guy's always been a monster.

when I think about Putin, I'm reminded of Rubeshev, the old commissar in "Darkness at Noon," who isn't as upset at being tortured and, ultimately, murdered as he is about the fact that the guy torturing him is too young to have known the abundant, completely ordinary human pleasures that were an everyday part of pre-Soviet life. Putin is precisely one of those torturers. when Orwell reviewed the book, he said that Koestler hadn't just soured on Stalin, he'd soured on the nature of revolution itself. I think Orwell was correct about Koestler and, increasingly, it feels to me that Koestler was also probably right.

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No "probably" about it. He was right.

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Oh!

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The description in UKRAINE'S VICTORY IS COMING covered aspects of Putin's invasion of Ukraine; his war against the country and its people to establish post-Cold War security architecture, a major feature of his imperial dream to integrate Russia into Western and global institutions -- UKRAINE'S VICTORY IS COMING is an unforgettable hymn to people 'fighting for their own country'; it is a hymn to democracy, and a hymn to the Ukrainian people. It began with President Volodomyr Zelenskiyy's prose poem to Putin -- to Ukrainians -- and to the world:

"Do you still think that we are “one nation”?

Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions?

You really did not understand anything?

Don't understand who we are?

What are we for?

What are we talking about?

Read my lips:

Without gas or without you?

Without you. "

and it ended with the words of Oleksii Reznikov, Minister of Defense of Ukraine,

“We have learned not to be scared,”

“Now we ask the rest of you not to be scared too.”

Reading and thinking about UKRAINE'S VICTORY IS COMING was the most memorable early morning hour I have spent in months.

Thomas McKelvey Cleaver's report about the Ukrainian military's achievements during Putin's war

against their country is also a hymn to people 'fighting for their country'. Tom speaks to us all.

Thank you.

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Fern, have you found a credible Biden policy towards Russia and Ukraine yet. And I mean what he is doing, not what he is saying.

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He has coordinated all the aid that has been given by the US and NATO. Without him, you can be certain it wouldn't have happened and Putin would have been "proven right."

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Good to see you, Allen. I am a person of her word. Less than 24 hours have gone but enough time to think that, perhaps, Biden deserved stronger approval when you first challenged me. Withal, Biden bringing NATO together in support of Ukraine as well as supplying munitions and money (while not soon enough or as much as Ukraine needs from your perspective) and enacting severe sanctions against Putin's Russia demonstrate his 'credible' policies toward Ukraine and Russia from my perspective.

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OK. I'll give you all that. There is no denying that Biden's foreign policy is good for all of us including Ukraine but I still want to know what is his end game regards the war. That no one has answered yet.

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As Ukraine proves itself more capable, the US will support them more. The fact there is an idiot in command of enough nuclear weapons to still wipe out the world is something that cannot be forgotten ever.

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Ah, yes, the nuclear scare. Honest to God, Americans are the most frightened people on earth. There will be no nuclear war. I the stuff won't work as it has not been maintained any better than his tanks. 2. Putin may be a lunatic but his generals are not. The countries closest to Ukraine are not worried about nucs, they are worried about Russia and rightfully so.

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The answer doesn't rest with Biden -- what about the inner circle in Russia? How will Putin's future be determined, and Russia without Putin -- what will that mean? That is the best I can do 'Will', but it is my good fortune to communicate with you.

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You should have been a politician

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Shall I thank you for that, Allen?

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Add to the list of demands from Ukraine officials after the war is won, Putin in the dock of an international court tried as a war criminal!

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I don't suppose there's any chance if him being forced to stand next the Former Guy ?

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"It is a truism that what happens on the battlefield is rarely what decides a war. The planning and preparations beforehand determine the result of the fighting." - And still there is room for surprise, "the Russians don't fight back"! - I always liked v. Clausewitz: try-to-make-sure-the-soldiers-don't-have-wet -socks-all-of-the-time sort of attitude. It seems the Ukrainian preparations also included to make sure the Russians were hungry too.

Swedish commentator is stressing that these successes are on one or two fronts, not the whole scene, but it sure looks hopeful. It will be interesting to see if the Kosacks, organized to fight for Russia, will turn their weapons against the Russians when it comes to the Crimea. They have been living in Crimea for a long time.

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'It will be interesting to see if the Kosacks, organized to fight for Russia, will turn their weapons against the Russians when it comes to the Crimea.'

Thoughtful and timely question.

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Navalny waits in the wings?

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That would be good news.

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The West is far more impressed with Navalny that is Ukraine. He might be good for Russia but he is a Russian nationalist who believes Crimea is Russian.

Putin is far more likely to be replaced with another hard liner such as Patrushev.

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Is Nationalism so ingrained that you see it as insurmountable?

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The years of propaganda have made it so, I think. How ingrained is it in America?

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Very.

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"very" is putting it very mildly.

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Tim Snyder is filming his History of Ukraine lecture class at Yale. As my brain was trying to recall reading “Ruska” in ‘90’s I’ve been enjoying it. And it’s free!

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Yale has been very, very generous about making many of its more popular courses available on places like Youtube. and Yale has a very lecture-dominated curriculum. so I figure the Snyder course'll be available to us all sooner rather than later. and if anyone wants to investigate this NOW, I can highly recommend the great David Blight's Civil War course...he's a magnificent lecturer.

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Saw that. That is so good. Cant remember if I read Ruska or not. I have read Bloodlands and Black Earth and a couple others. He is amazing. Nice to hear a non-Russian Ukrainian History.

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True. My hometown just tore down Robert E. Lee. And I still remember my Kyiv bus driver and his Stalin baseball card.

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That would be great news!

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What is the basis for Putin’s power? The criminal Oligarchs? He’s now killing them “mysteriously”; perhaps to keep the others in line. How many will he need to kill? When they’re dead, where does his future support come from? Is Putin just a smarter Trump?

There’s a truism that exists for “off-road” enthusiasts; “the length of your winch line is always 2 feet shorter than the distance to the nearest tree”

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I like that last!

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I've read that it's 8 Russian oligarchs who have met "mysterious" ends this year.

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Putin believed his own propaganda and his bully boy generals played along because what else could they do? Now that the house of cards that was Putin’s grand imperial land grab is unwinding, what happens next? Who is going to be the next strongman and what kind of Russia will be left to rule? Will Putin’s oligarch buddies sit on their hands looking to see which way the wind blows now? Lots of questions and it’s all going to play out very soon, and hopefully NATO, the EU, and the U.S. have some sort of plan…just don’t fuck it up like the last time the Soviet Union collapsed.

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Everyone from Putin to the lowliest street sweeper believed that Russian speaking Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms. They did not. and Russians view them as Nazi traitors which is why so many Russian speaking Ukrainians have been killed. Western Ukrainians were a lost cause from the get go and deemed Nazis.

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Allen. I think of you and Tanya and your family so often. I am so dang glad you are alive and your spirit is intact. Just glad you are here with us.

🗽

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Thank you

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I’m reading this as I wait in snaking car line to pick up my baby grand from pre-k class.

I add that I am weeping for joy. What a people the people of Ukraine are. So valiant. So heroic.

TC…. honestly the most fascinating essay I’ve ever read. You are a gifted gift. I am sending this with Light as the postage everywhere.

🗽🇺🇸🇺🇦

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I so much want to see Ukraine victorious, thank for your post. It is interesting to think that Russia might migrate towards democracy without Putin.

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Not likely. There is no history of democracy in Russia. Only strongman leaders and paranoia. I think the best we could hope for in Russia is a leader who really wants to build better lives for his people instead of a bigger dacha for himself. One who wants to coexist with the West.

I am reading a book that involves the Crimean War of the 1850s. The insecurities and failed ambitions of Russia are built into their DNA.

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I think a turn to democracy could have happened in the 90s, if we had given support to the democrats and not gotten so involved in patting our own back and deciding we get to run the world now.

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American "free-market" enthusiasts and the IMF went a long way to creating the current Russia.

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With a drunk like Yeltsin?

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No! There were others. He was the first big mistake.

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Olena Zelenska was at the EU meeting today. Here is a link to the article. I check out the Office of the President of Ukraine every day, especially to read/hear the evening address but today of course there is much news on the site.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/persha-ledi-ukrayini-pribula-u-strasburg-dlya-uchasti-v-ogol-77781

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"What happens when a gangster state implodes?" What a question. And the reality is the gangster state will exist without Putin because the history of Russia, which Gorbachov tried to change, while still remaining a communist (a miscalculation), will take generations to become different. Russia is not innocent, (no nation is - there is no maga) though Putin proclaims it is, hearkening back to a supposedly "better time" that he wants to reimpose on former satellites held by terror. (BTW the second most voted party in Sweden's elections have a saying - make sweden great again!)

My heart leaps for joy at what Ukraine is accomplishing. Obviously, without the support of the free world we would all be in a different place today. But the free world must not wobble or begin to look at their bank balances. The situation we're facing in the world of nations is this: Fascism and dictatorship or Democracy and independent/interrelated nations and peoples. The past as present? Or the present as a step toward a better future for the living and for those who may follow? Putin will not give up. He'll cause something awful to happen you can bet on it. But the west must not give in to his terror. Put on more sweaters people. Donate money to Ukrainian NGO's. It will be a long winter. But the Ukrainians have lit a fire in the hearts of humankind with their courage, heroism, and fortitude. And their lives. Those who have died, just like those who fell in Sicily and Normandy and the Argonne and God knows where, did for humanity in defeating the terror that was Hitler. It is finally up to all of us now alive to not let Fascism and terror win - either on the battlefield or at the ballot box.

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TC, Why hasn't Ukraine sunk the cruise missile ship in the Black Sea that sailed in to replace the sunken Moskova? Seems like this is Russia's strongest asset in theater that is not behind Russian borders. The Navy in the Black Sea supports the Crimea and the southern ports.

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Most likely because it stays out of range of their missiles.

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So get them missiles with that range, just like the hMarrs are doing on land. As long as they can threaten cruise missile attacks on infrastructure, civilians, and supply lines, doesn’t that ship’s presence represent a longer war?

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I think if the Ukrainians had something that would reach it, they would take it out. But the fact it has to stay so far out means it's not as useful since its missiles are also limited in range.

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It would be a huge victory. Sink Two flagships. The cost? My gosh, that would have to weaken Putin in Moscow. Rile up their armed forces against Vlad.

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You're right - if they had the weaponry to do it.

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What’s the weapon u think we need to give them to sink their Cruise Missile ship(s)?

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Wonderful news, indeed! I hope that implosion of the gangster state happens soon so that the seemingly random missle and artillery attacks can cease. I wonder if Uk counter battery fire is reaching into Russia at this point.

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They have an agreement with us not to use our gear to do things inside Russia.

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Which I cannot comprehend at all.

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Since the US became the Pax Americana, replacing the Pax Britannica, our unelected elites have always been open to dealing with people who weren't elected, who would "do their duty" as loyal servants/allies of the empire. Our "defense of democracy" rings pretty hollow to the Vietnamese, to the Iranians who supported Mossadegh. Killing him is the truly ironic event of post-war history - had the CIA and MI6 really been interested in supporting democracy and stability in the mideast, they would have supported this western-educated British Socialist democrat. The oil control they were really there for was lost 15 years later when the Shah took control and helped form OPEC - Mossadegh's success would have been a model to the other nationalist leaders of what to do. Then there's the overthrow of Arbenz in Guatemala for the crime of wanting more of his people to have land that United Fruit said was theirs - which plunged Guatemala and Central America into now 70 years of instability that has created our "border crisis." Those are just to top hits of the "American Design For Democracy Around The World."

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Thank you. I can unfortunately extrapolate from there. It makes me profoundly sad. After WWII America was the shining city on the hill to the whole world. Now, not so much. Prior to 2008 I considered her to be the biggest threat to world peace. Now I certainly prefer America to Russia, China, or India but I am of northern European extraction. I imagine for black or brown people it doesn't make much difference. Some days I am glad I am old

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TC, please tell me why? Fern gives me all general stuff but nothing specific

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Allen, I'm disappointed in you imagining TC speaking for me or vice versa. I'm laughing. You know my politics better than he does.

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He is not speaking for you. He is answering my question which you professionally duck and weave around

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Touche. Ducking and weaving were not my aim. Your fault finding …capped the end of this exchange.

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Thanks for this very clear assessment of what has happened over the past six days in Ukraine. It is helpful to understand how the strategy unfolded, since the news that was coming fast and furious was not all that easy to interpret.

Thanks for sharing Zelensky's poem. It needs to be put to music!

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a question, completely unrelated to the topic at hand: does anyone think that Barr's many recent appearances on Fucks-TV trashing TFF over the document issue might possibly be related to the fact that he had a pretty good idea that the more recent news about his wanton criminality as AG was coming to light? I'm obviously not saying there IS a connection (I mean, how the fuck would I know?), but only that the thought OCCURRED to me.

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How related are Barr's recent untrump statements to knowing that Berman's book, Holding the Line would reveal his corruption of the DOJ? It hard to believe that you don't have an opinion or two about it. Sounds as though Barr's psychology is what you are in search of. Making all those appearances will not win him any Brownie points., They'll pin his mug on DJT's behind. No amount of talk will wipe his sins away. I care nothing about his defensiveness -- my interest is in making Barr pay.

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Sorry to load up your site, but here is another link to a panel discussion from the YES (Yalta Conference) that happened over the weekend. 45 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TW-af5DGBo

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