Being a big believer in “not re-inventing the wheel,” I am re-posting here a post by Adam Tooze, who really does know what the issues are and what he is talking about, for your education. I agree with what he says here. For those who haven’t been keeping up with international news of late, the big issue in the coming NATO Confrence in Vilnius, Lithuania, this week is the question of granting Ukraine membership in NATO quickly.
TC, I subscribe to Tooze's Chartbook and have for quite awhile thanks to your recommendation. I agree with Tooze's take. I think getting Sweden approved is of major importance to all members of NATO, with the exceptions of Turkey and Hungry. Hungry will follow Turkey's lead. Erdogan, Turkey's president , is holding out for everything he can get before changing his stand. I have copied an article from CNBC, which provided the best assessment of this situation that I have read.
Sweden is in the final stretch to NATO membership. But Turkey could yet derail it (CNBC) excerpts
PUBLISHED MON, JUL 10 20232:50 AM EDT
Natasha Turak@NATASHATURAK
NATO is convening a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 to approve new defense plans, and — its leaders hope — announce the full approval of a new member to the alliance, Sweden.
But more than a year after the Nordic country made its application to join the defense organization, Turkey — which has been a member since 1952 and boasts NATO’s second-largest military — stands in the way.
Hungary, an EU and a NATO member, is the only other holdout, though its stance on the issue is expected to follow Turkey’s. Countries need unanimous approval from NATO’s existing 31 member states in order to join.
Turkey is leveraging its strength as a member of the alliance to extract concessions from other countries. It’s a bet that could pay off handsomely for Ankara — or it could further stress relations with the West, backfiring and hurting the country’s already fragile economy.
With much at stake for Turkey, Sweden, and the NATO alliance, whichever direction Turkey moves in will have significant consequences for them all.
The beef with Sweden
Turkey’s objection stems from Sweden’s support for Kurdish groups that Ankara deems to be terrorists. Kurds, an ethnic minority in Turkey constituting some 20% of the country’s population, have a tumultuous history with the Turkish government, which classifies some Kurdish political groups to be a severe threat. Sweden has made efforts to adjust its policies to Turkey’s demands, but Erdogan says that he isn’t satisfied.
Turkey’s position is also essentially a flex, some observers say, using its role in NATO to win concessions and remind the West that it is a partner whose demands must be taken seriously.
“There’s still a chance that Turkey will allow Sweden to enter NATO in time for the July summit,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Rane, told CNBC. “But there’s clearly a realistic chance that Erdogan will continue to play this thing out well past that deadline.”
Erdogan eventually approved Finland’s accession to NATO in March, which added a whopping 830 miles of NATO territory along Russia’s western land border. But he says that Sweden has yet to make the progress that Ankara is looking for, accusing it of allowing Kurdish protests in Stockholm that support the PKK, or Kurdish Workers’ Party, which both states designate as a terrorist group.
Many Kurdish activists living in Sweden say they do not support terrorism but oppose Erdogan and his policies, and now fear Stockholm may sell them out for NATO membership. Turkey’s demands of Stockholm controversially include extraditing certain Kurdish activists to Turkey, some of whom are Swedish citizens and have been protected from extradition under Swedish law.
“President Erdogan said Sweden has taken steps in the right direction by making changes in anti-terrorism legislation,” a statement from the Turkish presidency said on July 5. “But supporters of the PKK (Kurdish Workers’ Party) ... terrorist organization continue to freely organize demonstrations praising terrorism, which nullifies the steps taken,” it added.
Turkey is using this opportunity to send an important message about its national security interests, explained Kamal Alam, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“A lot of Turkey’s stance is a direct message to Europe that whilst this may look like posturing, Ankara has not gotten over the EU support to the YPG/PYD in north East Syria which also translates into indirect support to the PKK,” he said, referencing Kurdish militant and political groups in Syria that have links to the PKK, but who were vital in the fight against ISIS there.
“This stance is a direct result of the fallout of the war in Syria when Turkey drifted apart from the EU on many fronts,” Alam said. “Whilst the headlines might be of tactical blocking of joining NATO, the overall strategic messaging is don’t mess with Turkey’s national security.”
He also noted the decades-long refusal by the EU to let Turkey into the bloc, adding: “Turkey is saying we are the second largest army in NATO and after all the blackmailing and stalled EU accession, we will now reverse the process of who comes in or out.”
‘Playing with fire’
While the bet could pay off for Turkey, it also threatens to rupture already tense relations with Western allies and even backfire economically.
“Turkey’s blockade on Sweden’s NATO progression isn’t a clear-cut ticket to economic fallout, but it is playing with fire,” said Guney Yildiz, a researcher focused on Turkey and Syria.
“This move is part of a broader dance Ankara is performing between Russia and NATO, using its unique position to leverage advantages,” he told CNBC.
“With subtle alignment with the West on other fronts like Russian sanctions, Turkey feels it can take the heat over Sweden for a while. But it’s a ticking clock,” Yildiz warned. “The window to exploit Sweden’s membership for gain is closing. When it does, Turkey will pay a price, especially as the cost of managing its Russian relations escalates, inevitably tipping the scale towards more compromise and less gain.”
Turkey’s economy has been on a rollercoaster the past several years, with inflation veering between 40% and 80% in the last year and a currency that’s lost some 80% of its value against the dollar in the last five years.
In such a precarious setting, Turkey can’t afford to take any more risks, says Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management.
“Either Turkey approves Sweden’s NATO membership at Vilnius or it risks a major break in relations with the West and at a time when Turkey’s macro is on the edge. It’s decision time,” Ash wrote in an email note.
“It will go to the last minute, the 11.5th hour,” he said. “But if it does not happen there will be a major crisis in Turkey-NATO relations — at a time when the Turkish macro looks particularly vulnerable.” (CNBC)
'ISTANBUL — Turkey has agreed to admit Sweden to NATO, the alliance’s secretary general said Monday, dropping months of opposition that had roiled Western governments trying to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.'
“President Erdogan has agreed to forward the Accession Protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, said in surprise remarks late Monday after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.'
“This is a historic day,” Stoltenberg added.' (WAPO)
Once again Joe Biden is the right man for these times because he's wisely working in Ukraine's corner as best he can without jumping into the ring himself. The US and Germany are taking the most prudent stand even though it's more temperate than some would want. And as noted near the end of this piece, the US problem is our often mindlessly divided politics and shifts in power. Ukraine will be in NATO and the EU one day because Putin's aggression has cast Ukraine's future in stark relief and made those two entries foundational goals. I wish them well and Godspeed. And thanks for sharing this information that clarifies what's going on and what's at stake, if only for the moment.
Hey Judith - I watched "Amsterdam" last night. It was weird! I say that in a good way. About halfway thru I realized it was a dramatization of the Wall Street Plot (they make that clear at the end with the original footage of Smedley Butler testifying to Congress in 1933). Lots of very good A-list actors doing strange shit on-screen to good result. An interesting screenplay and direction by David O. Russell. Christian Bale and Margot Robbie were (as usual) superb and you don't realize it's them for quite awhile (a good thing). Thanks for the recommendation and I pass on that recommendation to the rest.
Turkey's abrupt U-turn on Sweden might be a signal that even with a wink and a nod to Putin, Erdogan is under pressure at home to pull away from Moscow. I think President Biden is correct in his "wait until the war is over," stance with Ukraine joining NATO.
And don’t forget Zelenskyy visited Turkey, and Erdogan released a group of captured Ukrainian generals Erdogan had promised wouldn’t be repatriated until the war was over. Putin is not pleased, and these guys received a hero’s welcome on returning home. Zelenskyy also visited Snake Island, which was a rather dangerous but highly symbolic thing for him to do. Putin is also not the only one playing the long game.
It's obvious (because there are no other rational approaches) that Ukraine one day will be in the EU and NATO, and if it survives this war with enough population and resources, it can become a vibrant nation - it is being forged in blood and steel, and its people and military have already shown themselves to be better than their opposition. I also get Adam Tooze's newsletter and it is valuable.
TC, I subscribe to Tooze's Chartbook and have for quite awhile thanks to your recommendation. I agree with Tooze's take. I think getting Sweden approved is of major importance to all members of NATO, with the exceptions of Turkey and Hungry. Hungry will follow Turkey's lead. Erdogan, Turkey's president , is holding out for everything he can get before changing his stand. I have copied an article from CNBC, which provided the best assessment of this situation that I have read.
Sweden is in the final stretch to NATO membership. But Turkey could yet derail it (CNBC) excerpts
PUBLISHED MON, JUL 10 20232:50 AM EDT
Natasha Turak@NATASHATURAK
NATO is convening a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 to approve new defense plans, and — its leaders hope — announce the full approval of a new member to the alliance, Sweden.
But more than a year after the Nordic country made its application to join the defense organization, Turkey — which has been a member since 1952 and boasts NATO’s second-largest military — stands in the way.
Hungary, an EU and a NATO member, is the only other holdout, though its stance on the issue is expected to follow Turkey’s. Countries need unanimous approval from NATO’s existing 31 member states in order to join.
Turkey is leveraging its strength as a member of the alliance to extract concessions from other countries. It’s a bet that could pay off handsomely for Ankara — or it could further stress relations with the West, backfiring and hurting the country’s already fragile economy.
With much at stake for Turkey, Sweden, and the NATO alliance, whichever direction Turkey moves in will have significant consequences for them all.
The beef with Sweden
Turkey’s objection stems from Sweden’s support for Kurdish groups that Ankara deems to be terrorists. Kurds, an ethnic minority in Turkey constituting some 20% of the country’s population, have a tumultuous history with the Turkish government, which classifies some Kurdish political groups to be a severe threat. Sweden has made efforts to adjust its policies to Turkey’s demands, but Erdogan says that he isn’t satisfied.
Turkey’s position is also essentially a flex, some observers say, using its role in NATO to win concessions and remind the West that it is a partner whose demands must be taken seriously.
“There’s still a chance that Turkey will allow Sweden to enter NATO in time for the July summit,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Rane, told CNBC. “But there’s clearly a realistic chance that Erdogan will continue to play this thing out well past that deadline.”
Erdogan eventually approved Finland’s accession to NATO in March, which added a whopping 830 miles of NATO territory along Russia’s western land border. But he says that Sweden has yet to make the progress that Ankara is looking for, accusing it of allowing Kurdish protests in Stockholm that support the PKK, or Kurdish Workers’ Party, which both states designate as a terrorist group.
Many Kurdish activists living in Sweden say they do not support terrorism but oppose Erdogan and his policies, and now fear Stockholm may sell them out for NATO membership. Turkey’s demands of Stockholm controversially include extraditing certain Kurdish activists to Turkey, some of whom are Swedish citizens and have been protected from extradition under Swedish law.
“President Erdogan said Sweden has taken steps in the right direction by making changes in anti-terrorism legislation,” a statement from the Turkish presidency said on July 5. “But supporters of the PKK (Kurdish Workers’ Party) ... terrorist organization continue to freely organize demonstrations praising terrorism, which nullifies the steps taken,” it added.
Turkey is using this opportunity to send an important message about its national security interests, explained Kamal Alam, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“A lot of Turkey’s stance is a direct message to Europe that whilst this may look like posturing, Ankara has not gotten over the EU support to the YPG/PYD in north East Syria which also translates into indirect support to the PKK,” he said, referencing Kurdish militant and political groups in Syria that have links to the PKK, but who were vital in the fight against ISIS there.
“This stance is a direct result of the fallout of the war in Syria when Turkey drifted apart from the EU on many fronts,” Alam said. “Whilst the headlines might be of tactical blocking of joining NATO, the overall strategic messaging is don’t mess with Turkey’s national security.”
He also noted the decades-long refusal by the EU to let Turkey into the bloc, adding: “Turkey is saying we are the second largest army in NATO and after all the blackmailing and stalled EU accession, we will now reverse the process of who comes in or out.”
‘Playing with fire’
While the bet could pay off for Turkey, it also threatens to rupture already tense relations with Western allies and even backfire economically.
“Turkey’s blockade on Sweden’s NATO progression isn’t a clear-cut ticket to economic fallout, but it is playing with fire,” said Guney Yildiz, a researcher focused on Turkey and Syria.
“This move is part of a broader dance Ankara is performing between Russia and NATO, using its unique position to leverage advantages,” he told CNBC.
“With subtle alignment with the West on other fronts like Russian sanctions, Turkey feels it can take the heat over Sweden for a while. But it’s a ticking clock,” Yildiz warned. “The window to exploit Sweden’s membership for gain is closing. When it does, Turkey will pay a price, especially as the cost of managing its Russian relations escalates, inevitably tipping the scale towards more compromise and less gain.”
Turkey’s economy has been on a rollercoaster the past several years, with inflation veering between 40% and 80% in the last year and a currency that’s lost some 80% of its value against the dollar in the last five years.
In such a precarious setting, Turkey can’t afford to take any more risks, says Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management.
“Either Turkey approves Sweden’s NATO membership at Vilnius or it risks a major break in relations with the West and at a time when Turkey’s macro is on the edge. It’s decision time,” Ash wrote in an email note.
“It will go to the last minute, the 11.5th hour,” he said. “But if it does not happen there will be a major crisis in Turkey-NATO relations — at a time when the Turkish macro looks particularly vulnerable.” (CNBC)
Thanks for this, Fern.
Thank you for your attention to NATO and Ukraine, TC. The success of this Summit is important to all of us.
TURKEY DROPS OPPOSITION TO SWEDEN'S NATO BID!
HUGE COUP FOR NATO! GREAT FOR US ALL!
TERRIBLE NEWS FOR PUTIN!
'ISTANBUL — Turkey has agreed to admit Sweden to NATO, the alliance’s secretary general said Monday, dropping months of opposition that had roiled Western governments trying to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.'
“President Erdogan has agreed to forward the Accession Protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, said in surprise remarks late Monday after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.'
“This is a historic day,” Stoltenberg added.' (WAPO)
They must be getting the F-16s.
We'll see. Stoltenberg made the announcement after meeting with Erdogan. Biden seemed willing to make the deal.
Don't you think Putin's pants have been soiled?
We'll certainly find out.
Economics aside in the bid for Ukraine to be admitted to
NATO at Vilnius. It could, as is
pointed out in TC's great essay, be Putin's tipping point.
I think Biden and Germany, perhaps Britain's Sunak also
will push to withhold membership at this time.
There are other European
NATO members, regardless
of Poland, who will not want
to take the chance and I can't
blame them. A little word of
caution here, considering the
fact that our security services
withhold "need to know" info
from the general public. Are
we 100% sure Belarus hasn't
acquired WMDs? And then,
there's Wagner.
Putin is up to something and
it won't be pretty. He plays his own long game.
I do wish we and our allies had given Ukraine the armaments and artillery it
has needed much earlier than
we have. They should have had air dominion from the
beginning.
If you haven't seen recent pictures of Bakma you should take a look. A thriving
center totally destroyed. Absolutely demolished. And
that's just 1 city. There are
others just as bad.
Yet the "people" persevere. They want their freedom. ❤
Bad guys are not hard to find
Once again Joe Biden is the right man for these times because he's wisely working in Ukraine's corner as best he can without jumping into the ring himself. The US and Germany are taking the most prudent stand even though it's more temperate than some would want. And as noted near the end of this piece, the US problem is our often mindlessly divided politics and shifts in power. Ukraine will be in NATO and the EU one day because Putin's aggression has cast Ukraine's future in stark relief and made those two entries foundational goals. I wish them well and Godspeed. And thanks for sharing this information that clarifies what's going on and what's at stake, if only for the moment.
Hey Judith - I watched "Amsterdam" last night. It was weird! I say that in a good way. About halfway thru I realized it was a dramatization of the Wall Street Plot (they make that clear at the end with the original footage of Smedley Butler testifying to Congress in 1933). Lots of very good A-list actors doing strange shit on-screen to good result. An interesting screenplay and direction by David O. Russell. Christian Bale and Margot Robbie were (as usual) superb and you don't realize it's them for quite awhile (a good thing). Thanks for the recommendation and I pass on that recommendation to the rest.
Smedley Butler been a hero of mine for decades.
Turkey's abrupt U-turn on Sweden might be a signal that even with a wink and a nod to Putin, Erdogan is under pressure at home to pull away from Moscow. I think President Biden is correct in his "wait until the war is over," stance with Ukraine joining NATO.
And don’t forget Zelenskyy visited Turkey, and Erdogan released a group of captured Ukrainian generals Erdogan had promised wouldn’t be repatriated until the war was over. Putin is not pleased, and these guys received a hero’s welcome on returning home. Zelenskyy also visited Snake Island, which was a rather dangerous but highly symbolic thing for him to do. Putin is also not the only one playing the long game.
Thank you for reposting this TC. It’s really important information and clarifies some very complex issues.
It's obvious (because there are no other rational approaches) that Ukraine one day will be in the EU and NATO, and if it survives this war with enough population and resources, it can become a vibrant nation - it is being forged in blood and steel, and its people and military have already shown themselves to be better than their opposition. I also get Adam Tooze's newsletter and it is valuable.
I wish this clarified something for me. It only stirs the morass, sad to say