My head hurts, too. But being the eternal optimist, I fully expect the new Republican House to act like 200 plus beached fish. Flopping around, gasping for oxygen...maybe creating stupid headlines but demonstrating to the American voters that they really have nothing to offer them other than hate and vitriol. It's not a winning strategy. It will just be a pain in the brain for a couple of years.
But we will enjoy the many things President Biden and a Sensible Senate can do. Judges in particular.
And for every investigation into a laptop, the Senate can investigate the members of the House itself while it proposes a series of bills they will reject - and will be reactivated and passed with lightning speed when we accomplish the 2024 Trifecta! How's that for optimism?
Yes, there is actually a solid political argument to be made that regaining the House in 2024 would be easier than keeping it after 6 years in control.
The Times ran interviews with Sean Patrick Maloney and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And of course they blamed each other. But I have to say this: if AOC actually had to run in Abigail Spanberger's district, or for Catherine Cortez Masto's Senate seat, AOC would lose so big that it would be amazing.
Everyone runs for their own constituents in their district, it's their job as a Representative to know who their constituents are and what their needs are...and to change their minds!
“New York and California, the two greatest sources of self-satisfied politically-illiterate left wing bullshit in America.” That right there. In a nutshell.
No. North of Westchester County, NY, is traditionally Republican. Worse--the upstate NY area, sparsely populated, not-so-enlightened area has gone full-blown Trumpanzee. This is the area that has given us the likes of Elise Stefanik, Poster Girl of Repug red-necks; a bimbo chosen to replace Liz Cheney. The disease that is right-wing nut, knee-jerking, reactive malcontent has firmly settled into the backwaters of NYS.
Was there a close divide in those districts? There are more Independent voters than either Republicans or Democrats. What are the breakdowns in the districts that went from Blue to Red? Any information that indicated a large 'leftist' population that didn't show up? The voting in many areas of the country was below the 2018 average...
'Voters across the country shifted toward Republicans in the midterm elections — veering further right in areas won by former president Donald Trump and also tacking rightward in nearly all districts won by President Biden. House Republicans, however, picked up only a small number of seats.'
'Meanwhile in New York, Democrats lost four seats to Republicans as redistricting made their contests more competitive. Areas upstate voted more like rural areas elsewhere in the country.' (WAPO & CookPoliticalReport,Non-PartisanPoliticalAnalysis) See link below
If the New York Democrats had run a GOTV that worked, and gotten their participation just up to 2018 level, they wouldn't have lost those seats. Once again, as usual, a Democratic "loss" will always happen when Democrats fail to show up, because Republicans always do.
Hi TC. I think your answer is hypothetic as redistricting changed the map on us. Bring in the statisticians.
I thought of you as Nancy Pelosi spoke to us not long ago. This is a time when I eagerly wait to know your sense of this moment and about the extraordinary leader we revere.
The statistics are there to see: New York and California both under-performed as opposed to the rest of the blue states, and thereby lost seats they had won in 2018 when they showed up. And those are the seats that are why Pelosi retired this morning.
TC, This an old, sad story now. I accept that you have the experience to evaluate the wins and a losses much better than I can. This is the last of what I read that influenced me to read the loss differently than you do. I also realize that even with the redistricting we might have won, except for mistakes on our side.
'In Fight for Congress, a Surprising Battleground Emerges: New York'
'After a haywire redistricting process, New York has more congressional battlegrounds than nearly any other state. Even the Democratic campaign chairman is locked in a dead heat.'
By Nicholas Fandos (NY Times)
Oct. 11, 2022
'POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. — Just a month before November’s critical midterm elections, New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country, and Democrats are mired in an increasingly costly fight just to hold their ground.'
'All told, nine of New York’s 26 seats — from the tip of Long Island to the banks of the Hudson River here in Poughkeepsie — are in play, more than any state but California.'
'For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring: Just 10 months ago, party leaders, who controlled the once-in-a-decade redistricting process in the state, optimistically predicted that new district lines could safeguard Democrats and imperil as many as five Republican seats, allowing them to add key blocks to their national firewall.'
'That, to put it gently, is not how things seem to be turning out.'
If you open the link I provided, TC, you will see the map and detailed info. Source: Cook Political Report Race Ratings By Scott Reinhard
'Now, even Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, who once hoped New York would ease his burden as chairman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, is facing a viable challenge, with internal polls from both parties showing a dead heat in a suburban area President Biden won by 10 points.'
“I watch this stuff closely, and I feel I need a neck brace,” said Steve Israel, the former Long Island congressman who held Mr. Maloney’s job during the 2012 and 2014 elections. “Midterms this cycle are the most unpredictable and fluctuating I’ve ever seen, but no state has demonstrated that more than New York.”
'The reversal of fortune in New York, where there are more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, is all the more striking given the broader national backdrop. In a year when many states used redistricting to minimize the number of truly competitive districts, New York is virtually alone in moving toward more competition, after an attempted Democratic gerrymander backfired and state courts intervened at the 11th hour to draw more neutral lines.'
'It also underscores just how daunting a task Democrats face as they seek to hold on to the slimmest of majorities nationally in the face of Mr. Biden’s middling approval numbers, high inflation and a restless electorate that believes the state and the nation are headed in the wrong direction.'
'Whereas the Democrats’ initial plan positioned them to reasonably pick up three seats and protect existing ones, the party now finds itself trying to guard five of the most competitive districts in New York across parts of Nassau and Westchester Counties and in the small towns of the Hudson Valley. Republicans, by comparison, are defending only a single Syracuse-area seat that is considered at real risk of flipping, and three other seats that look increasingly safe, including a coveted New York City swing seat encompassing Staten Island and a portion of South Brooklyn.' (NYTimes) See link below.
TC, You frequently attack people on the left. Unlike many of your pieces, such as the last about the partisan COVID divide there were excellent sources backing the story, but when in comes to 'Lefties', we're at the mercy of _____.
You and I have have left wing divide.
To quote you in this piece, 'New York and California, the two greatest sources of self-satisfied politically-illiterate left wing bullshit in America.' ???
There are shades of Left and the vast majority of us vote for the Democrats 100%. of the time. I'm a registered Democrat. Why blame 'Lefties' for the seats the Democrats lost?
In another recent piece you stated that Lefties were the majority of Tesla drivers. I did some research and learned that Tesla drivers are generally White males over 50, with median incomes of $143,000 a year, and reside in private homes. Many of the buyers live in California. I could find nothing concerning their politics.
From one and I hope not the only left leaning member of your fan club.
The most resilient and trustworthy system for elections is hand-marked paper ballots. This is the prevailing view of elections experts. I respectfully suggest you look into how dangerous and how poorly implemented electronic voting really is. There is a LOT of discussion and evidence.
I agree with you on ranked-choice, and perhaps compulsory voting.
Ah, and in the new House, who will be the Joe Manchins and Krysten Simemas for the Republican Party? Whole lot of mavericks coming in for McCarthy or whoever is House leader to keep in line. Can't help but think "Impeach everyone and stop everything Biden proposes" will go well with either party's base. Message seems to be, at least in part, "Get something done" on immigration, economy, infrastructure, my roads. Might see some bi-partisan action given the Democrats can control the fiscal bills in Senate ... or fillibuster anything their House compatriots want. Just Thinking outloud.
My head hurts, too. But being the eternal optimist, I fully expect the new Republican House to act like 200 plus beached fish. Flopping around, gasping for oxygen...maybe creating stupid headlines but demonstrating to the American voters that they really have nothing to offer them other than hate and vitriol. It's not a winning strategy. It will just be a pain in the brain for a couple of years.
But we will enjoy the many things President Biden and a Sensible Senate can do. Judges in particular.
And for every investigation into a laptop, the Senate can investigate the members of the House itself while it proposes a series of bills they will reject - and will be reactivated and passed with lightning speed when we accomplish the 2024 Trifecta! How's that for optimism?
Yes, there is actually a solid political argument to be made that regaining the House in 2024 would be easier than keeping it after 6 years in control.
The Times ran interviews with Sean Patrick Maloney and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And of course they blamed each other. But I have to say this: if AOC actually had to run in Abigail Spanberger's district, or for Catherine Cortez Masto's Senate seat, AOC would lose so big that it would be amazing.
Truth!
Everyone runs for their own constituents in their district, it's their job as a Representative to know who their constituents are and what their needs are...and to change their minds!
Thank you, judy, for the lack of bias of your reply.
“New York and California, the two greatest sources of self-satisfied politically-illiterate left wing bullshit in America.” That right there. In a nutshell.
Oregon ain’t far behind them.
A step or two... :-)
No. North of Westchester County, NY, is traditionally Republican. Worse--the upstate NY area, sparsely populated, not-so-enlightened area has gone full-blown Trumpanzee. This is the area that has given us the likes of Elise Stefanik, Poster Girl of Repug red-necks; a bimbo chosen to replace Liz Cheney. The disease that is right-wing nut, knee-jerking, reactive malcontent has firmly settled into the backwaters of NYS.
Yes, but the four lost seats were Democratic losses.
Was there a close divide in those districts? There are more Independent voters than either Republicans or Democrats. What are the breakdowns in the districts that went from Blue to Red? Any information that indicated a large 'leftist' population that didn't show up? The voting in many areas of the country was below the 2018 average...
'Voters across the country shifted toward Republicans in the midterm elections — veering further right in areas won by former president Donald Trump and also tacking rightward in nearly all districts won by President Biden. House Republicans, however, picked up only a small number of seats.'
'Meanwhile in New York, Democrats lost four seats to Republicans as redistricting made their contests more competitive. Areas upstate voted more like rural areas elsewhere in the country.' (WAPO & CookPoliticalReport,Non-PartisanPoliticalAnalysis) See link below
https://www.cookpolitical.com/
If the New York Democrats had run a GOTV that worked, and gotten their participation just up to 2018 level, they wouldn't have lost those seats. Once again, as usual, a Democratic "loss" will always happen when Democrats fail to show up, because Republicans always do.
Hi TC. I think your answer is hypothetic as redistricting changed the map on us. Bring in the statisticians.
I thought of you as Nancy Pelosi spoke to us not long ago. This is a time when I eagerly wait to know your sense of this moment and about the extraordinary leader we revere.
The statistics are there to see: New York and California both under-performed as opposed to the rest of the blue states, and thereby lost seats they had won in 2018 when they showed up. And those are the seats that are why Pelosi retired this morning.
TC, This an old, sad story now. I accept that you have the experience to evaluate the wins and a losses much better than I can. This is the last of what I read that influenced me to read the loss differently than you do. I also realize that even with the redistricting we might have won, except for mistakes on our side.
'In Fight for Congress, a Surprising Battleground Emerges: New York'
'After a haywire redistricting process, New York has more congressional battlegrounds than nearly any other state. Even the Democratic campaign chairman is locked in a dead heat.'
By Nicholas Fandos (NY Times)
Oct. 11, 2022
'POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. — Just a month before November’s critical midterm elections, New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country, and Democrats are mired in an increasingly costly fight just to hold their ground.'
'All told, nine of New York’s 26 seats — from the tip of Long Island to the banks of the Hudson River here in Poughkeepsie — are in play, more than any state but California.'
'For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring: Just 10 months ago, party leaders, who controlled the once-in-a-decade redistricting process in the state, optimistically predicted that new district lines could safeguard Democrats and imperil as many as five Republican seats, allowing them to add key blocks to their national firewall.'
'That, to put it gently, is not how things seem to be turning out.'
If you open the link I provided, TC, you will see the map and detailed info. Source: Cook Political Report Race Ratings By Scott Reinhard
'Now, even Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, who once hoped New York would ease his burden as chairman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, is facing a viable challenge, with internal polls from both parties showing a dead heat in a suburban area President Biden won by 10 points.'
“I watch this stuff closely, and I feel I need a neck brace,” said Steve Israel, the former Long Island congressman who held Mr. Maloney’s job during the 2012 and 2014 elections. “Midterms this cycle are the most unpredictable and fluctuating I’ve ever seen, but no state has demonstrated that more than New York.”
'The reversal of fortune in New York, where there are more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, is all the more striking given the broader national backdrop. In a year when many states used redistricting to minimize the number of truly competitive districts, New York is virtually alone in moving toward more competition, after an attempted Democratic gerrymander backfired and state courts intervened at the 11th hour to draw more neutral lines.'
'It also underscores just how daunting a task Democrats face as they seek to hold on to the slimmest of majorities nationally in the face of Mr. Biden’s middling approval numbers, high inflation and a restless electorate that believes the state and the nation are headed in the wrong direction.'
'Whereas the Democrats’ initial plan positioned them to reasonably pick up three seats and protect existing ones, the party now finds itself trying to guard five of the most competitive districts in New York across parts of Nassau and Westchester Counties and in the small towns of the Hudson Valley. Republicans, by comparison, are defending only a single Syracuse-area seat that is considered at real risk of flipping, and three other seats that look increasingly safe, including a coveted New York City swing seat encompassing Staten Island and a portion of South Brooklyn.' (NYTimes) See link below.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/nyregion/house-elections-new-york.html
TC, You frequently attack people on the left. Unlike many of your pieces, such as the last about the partisan COVID divide there were excellent sources backing the story, but when in comes to 'Lefties', we're at the mercy of _____.
You and I have have left wing divide.
To quote you in this piece, 'New York and California, the two greatest sources of self-satisfied politically-illiterate left wing bullshit in America.' ???
There are shades of Left and the vast majority of us vote for the Democrats 100%. of the time. I'm a registered Democrat. Why blame 'Lefties' for the seats the Democrats lost?
In another recent piece you stated that Lefties were the majority of Tesla drivers. I did some research and learned that Tesla drivers are generally White males over 50, with median incomes of $143,000 a year, and reside in private homes. Many of the buyers live in California. I could find nothing concerning their politics.
From one and I hope not the only left leaning member of your fan club.
Voting should be electronic, it should ranked-choice, and it should be compulsory. Only then will we have a chance at getting high quality governance.
The most resilient and trustworthy system for elections is hand-marked paper ballots. This is the prevailing view of elections experts. I respectfully suggest you look into how dangerous and how poorly implemented electronic voting really is. There is a LOT of discussion and evidence.
I agree with you on ranked-choice, and perhaps compulsory voting.
Ah, and in the new House, who will be the Joe Manchins and Krysten Simemas for the Republican Party? Whole lot of mavericks coming in for McCarthy or whoever is House leader to keep in line. Can't help but think "Impeach everyone and stop everything Biden proposes" will go well with either party's base. Message seems to be, at least in part, "Get something done" on immigration, economy, infrastructure, my roads. Might see some bi-partisan action given the Democrats can control the fiscal bills in Senate ... or fillibuster anything their House compatriots want. Just Thinking outloud.
Yup - NYers should be ashamed! And I am aware of two people in my extended! family who were among the number of non-voters. Why???
Same here, Maggie. I was really shocked they hadn't voted. Every vote counts.
And after the fact - asking someone the results!!!!
A significant health risk for Dems...