TRUMP’S PENNSYLVANIA NIGHTMARE

From The Daily newsletter over at PolitcusUSA:

I am a lifelong Pennsylvanian. I have seen parts of this state thrive, decline, and be reborn. There are also parts that declined, fell under Republican control, and have never rebounded in more than four decades. Pennsylvania is a large state made up of several political dynamics that all must be successfully juggled for a candidate to win statewide.

Democrats have been surging in statewide and state House legislative races in recent years as the state's population growth is centered around the Philadelphia suburbs and eastern part of the state.

We have quite a few Pennsylvania subscribers and readers, but we also have subscribers and readers from around the world, so I am going to keep our discussion of Pennsylvania general, and my fellow Pennsylvanians can add more detail about their home areas in the comments below.

The key point to understanding the results is that the Pennsylvania primary is a closed primary. Independents are not allowed to vote, and crossover voting is prohibited, so the votes for Nikki Haley came from registered Republican voters.

Trump needs to rebound and win Pennsylvania in 2024. Without winning Pennsylvania, Donald Trump probably can’t win the election.

The results of Tuesday night’s Pennsylvania Republican primary were a disaster for him and the Republican Party.

Nikki Haley got over 150,000 votes and nearly 17% of the vote after she quit the race and never set foot in Pennsylvania nearly two months ago. How and where she performed best is a giant alarm bell for Republicans.

Haley was strongest in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia suburbs. Those are the same voters that Trump must take away from Biden to have any chance at the state in November.

Trump was running against a zombie candidate and only got 83% of the vote. In contrast, President Biden got over 93% of the vote with fellow zombie candidate Dean Phillips on the ballot in the Democratic primary and 141,000 more votes overall than Trump.

Primary night was a disaster for Republicans and when we dig down a bit, we see that Trump has some structural problems in Pennsylvania.

Trump Has A Population Problem In Pennsylvania

Like all Republicans running statewide in Pennsylvania, Trump has a population problem. Trump’s strength in the state is in the rural red counties between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Republicans drove out historic levels of the vote for Trump in those areas in 2020 and still lost the state to President Biden.

The reason why is that with the exception of Butler County in the western part of the state, the fastest-growing parts of Pennsylvania are in the eastern part of the state. Those growing parts of the state were also where Nikki Haley had some of her strongest results.

For example, Cumberland County has grown in population by 4.3% and Nikki Haley got over 23% of the Republican primary vote. Chester County has grown by 2.88%, and Haley got over 25% of the Republican primary vote.

In contrast, Fayette County in the western part of the state has lost 3.8% of its population over the last three years, and Haley only got 6.7% of the vote. Neighboring Greene County has lost 4.4% percent of its population and Haley got 6.5% of the vote.

Key Democratic constituencies and places were less motivated to vote in 2016, and Trump was able to sneak out a win in the state.

Structurally, Democrats have a registered voter advantage of 400,000 voters in Pennsylvania. If Democrats show up to vote, Democratic candidates statewide will usually win.

Even if Trump were able to match his 2020 level of general election turnout, which is unlikely given his primary performance, he would still need many things to go right to win Pennsylvania in 2024.

Across the political spectrum, everyone in Pennsylvania will preface any comments with the disclaimer that they expect this election to be close in 2024.

I can see a criminal conviction for Trump putting Pennsylvania out of reach for him, but all things being equal, the Pennsylvania margin will probably be five points or less.

Pennsylvania is more of an uphill climb for Trump than many in the media and pundit class want to admit. The ex-president has some factors working against him in the state, and the primary results show a state poised to vote against him in the fall.

So, take good news like this, and use it to keep yourself positive in the ups and downs of the campaign this year. But remember, good news like this is only going to work if we bust our collective ass working to defeat the schmuck. - TC

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