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In respect of your question "What if...?" regarding casualties of the base bombing, we don't know that a NATO national isn't among the dead and, if one or more is, neither NATO nor the victim's home country will be anxious for that to become public information. That would be the precipitating event you discussed and I, for one, would want to have whatever response I was going to make and the reasons for it thoroughly thought through, lined up and under way before I made the doleful announcement. I profoundly hope that isn't the case but I have seen a report that there was a National Guard unit at the base providing training and support for the Ukrainian army.

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I guess we'll know soon.

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Per WFLA and The Associated Press:

A Florida National Guard unit of 165 soldiers was at a now-bombed Ukraine military training center as recently as last month The Florida National Guard deployed there in November 2021. National Guard troops worked with Armed Forces Ukraine to enhance combat training and increase training capacity to four Armed Forces Ukraine Brigades.

Early last month, Florida troops trained Ukrainian soldiers how to use the M141 Bunker Defeat Munition. At the time they left the United States, the Florida National Guard expected a 9- to 12-month deployment, called Task Force Gator. Florida troops first arrived in Albania and then traveled to the Ukrainian base.

The visit by the Florida soldiers was the 11th deployment of U.S. soldiers to the training center, according to Stars and Stripes. The Florida unit was ordered to leave Ukraine on Feb. 12 — less than two weeks before Russia attacked and invaded Ukraine, the Military Times reported.

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That's the story I've seen too; I note that the article doesn't say they left, only that they had orders to leave. There is also the possibility that some members of the unit stayed and/or there were other NATO units at the base as well.

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Saw this online (it was published Feb 15, 2022) :

https://www.news4jax.com/news/2022/02/15/florida-national-guard-troops-ordered-out-of-ukraine-now-in-germany

The Florida National Guard troops ordered out of Ukraine over the weekend are now in Germany.

The U.S. European Command confirmed with News4JAX that the 160 soldiers relocated to Grafenwoehr Training Area in Bavaria. It’s the Army’s largest permanent training area in Europe, which supports U.S. and NATO live fire and maneuver training and qualifications.

The Florida National Guard soldiers had been in Ukraine since November as part of Joint National Training Group-Ukraine.

European Command told News4JAX that the guard members will remain at Grafenwoehr preparing for their training to resume with Ukrainian Armed Forces along with any other missions that are assigned.

Unless someone was lying to the local Jacksonville, Florida TV station, the Florida troops were safely in Germany 10 days before Putin invaded Ukraine.

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Excellent, thanks Karen.

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