Lucian Truscott has a good analysis up this morning at his Substack.
He points out that the Russians may have invaded with as many as 190,000 troops, but they faced an army of 125,000, with 900,000 trained reservists, and an army better-trained and motivated. It is a truism in military planning that an attacking force has to outnumber a defending force by at least 3:1. A 1:1 split always favors the defense. And Putin doesn't have many more troops than he has sent that he can afford to send without being able to keep the lid on the simmering pot of a country he "rules."
Another friend pointed out that "The Butcher of Aleppo" made his reputation against an untrained mob that was unsupported by an equal power, and unequipped with the tools to oppose his force. In other words, this guy has never really fought against an actual Trained Opponent.
Now that weapons are flowing to Ukraine, I'm going to go out on a tree limb and say that if I was betting, I'd be betting against Putin and his gang.
As a combat veteran I understand in my bones what you have laid out TC, if this doesn’t make a person very afraid, then they are clueless. A lot of people, some good some bad, are going to die in the next few weeks, it’s going to come down to who has the will and the superior technology, if either side possesses both they will prevail. We should all be praying that the money we have spent on armaments over the last few decades will trump anything the Russians have developed, and that our collective government’s will have been expediting it to the Ukrainians so that they are ready for the coming onslaught, they are our proxies and there is no way we can ask them to enter this fight with one arm tied behind their back. We don’t need to know what we are giving them, nor does the incessant media, what really matters is that the Russians discover it when it’s too late and their vaunted army is being annihilated. We didn’t ask for this fight, and neither did the Ukrainians, so now is the time to put a stop to the evil that Putin is unleashing upon the innocent.🇺🇦
You wrote: "We don’t need to know what we are giving them, nor does the incessant media, what really matters is that the Russians discover it when it’s too late and their vaunted army is being annihilated."
I so agree, especially about the media obsession with weaponry. I know they need "news" but for heaven sakes, don't they realize that Putin and his ilk are watching too? Duh.
Ellen, In order to be able to assess the war, it is necessary to know the factors pertaining to it, including weaponry and intelligence capabilities. The press needs that information and many of us who are interested in the welfare of Ukraine; how the U.S., NATO and others countries support democracy and the level to which they are committed to the lives of human beings; a sense of the whole picture -- we need to know. What is the interest in limiting journalism and the people's need to know?
Fern, sorry to be slow getting back...this is a day! I have no disagreement with you and you certainly make a good point. I support the free press and appreciate the truth they bring to us...many are risking their lives to do so. I worry about showing too much of our "hand" to a war criminal. If our military and president and NATO and Ukraine don't worry about what the enemy knows, I probably should just trust them! After all, this is an information war too. Good to hear from you!
Hi Ellen. In general, I think it is safe to say, given Russian intelligence, .Putin will know before the press. Whatever the U.S and NATO announce will have been carefully screened beforehand. Sometimes, we want the enemy to know as well as mislead. Cheerio, friend
On a lighter note (I needed this today- ran out of 4 letter words):
"These insults are from an era before the English language got boiled down to 4-letter words.
1. "He had delusions of adequacy ” Walter Kerr
2. "He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.”- Winston Churchill
3. "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure. - Clarence Darrow
4. "He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary.”-William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway)
5. "Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words?"- Ernest Hemingway (about William Faulkner)
6. "Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I'll waste no time reading it.” - Moses Hadas
7. "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.” - Mark Twain
8. "He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends.” - Oscar Wilde
9. "I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend, if you have one.” -George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill
10. "Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second... if there is one.” - Winston Churchill, in response
11. "I feel so miserable without you; it's almost like having you here” - Stephen Bishop
12. "He is a self-made man and worships his creator.” - John Bright
13. "I've just learned about his illness. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.” - Irvin S. Cobb
14. "He is not only dull himself; he is the cause of dullness in others.” - Samuel Johnson
15. "He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up. - Paul Keating
16. "He loves nature in spite of what it did to him.” - Forrest Tucker
17. "Why do you sit there looking like an envelope without any address on it?” - Mark Twain
18. "His mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork.” - Mae West
19. "Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go.” - Oscar Wilde
20. "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination.” - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
21. "He has Van Gogh's ear for music.” - Billy Wilder
22. "I've had a perfectly wonderful evening. But I'm afraid this wasn't it.” - Groucho Marx
23. The exchange between Winston Churchill & Lady Astor: She said, "If you were my husband I'd give you poison." He said, "If you were my wife, I'd drink it."
24. "He can compress the most words into the smallest idea of any man I know." - Abraham Lincoln
25. "There's nothing wrong with you that reincarnation won't cure." -- Jack E. Leonard
26. "They never open their mouths without subtracting from the sum of human knowledge." -- Thomas Brackett Reed
27. "He inherited some good instincts from his Quaker forebears, but by diligent hard work, he overcame them." -- James Reston (about Richard Nixon) —Robert L Truesdell"
""It makes sense to send American equipment to former Warsaw Pact countries and ask them to transfer their Soviet-made armored vehicles, which the Ukrainians are more likely to be familiar, to Ukraine...What’s coming is a battle on the Ukrainian steppe the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the Battle of Kursk and Marshall Rokossovsky’s general offensive in the summer of 1943. Kursk was the biggest tank battle in history."
Thank You TC for such a clear (if devastating) military report. I have shared.
Here comes the destruction Putin inflicted on Chechnya to be delivered to Ukraine.
'It appears that the stakes of the next month have gotten through to the United States and NATO, with recent announcements they are rushing myriad forms of military assistance to Ukraine.' Yes, TC, so it 'appears' but what good will it do? The Mi-17 heavy assault helicopters that you referred to, I understand are no longer part of the package. So, what proportion will Ukraine get of what it has been begging for?
Ukraine still doesn't have the type of weaponry it needs to destroy the Russian military, which is out to flatten the country and kill as many Ukrainians as it possibly can.
Putin won't get Ukraine. How much of Ukraine will be standing in June? What of the Ukrainians - the people - how many of them will still be standing?
Here we are humans witnessing evil without the tools to put an end to it.
What about Putin? What of his future? Russia - the Russian people - what about them?
The odds are in favor of the survival of Ukraine.
Lessons to be learned from the noble, Ukrainians, President Zelensky and their mighty battle for Democracy.
Putin can take Ukraine only by killing the last Ukrainian standing and destroying the last building. He can turn it into a desert wasteland but he still will have lost because Ukraine will not bow to him
Allen, regarding thoughts about Putin's use of nuclear weapons, you may have seen the following as it is in Reuters:
U.S. cannot 'take lightly' threat Russia could use nuclear weapons - CIA chief
House Intelligence Committee holds hearing on worldwide threats in Washington
CIA Director William Burns speaks during a House Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats, in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 15, 2021.
WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - The threat of Russia potentially using tactical or low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine cannot be taken lightly, but the CIA has not seen a lot of practical evidence reinforcing that concern, CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday.
In a speech at Georgia Tech, Burns referred to the "potential desperation" and military setbacks that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government have suffered since moved forces into Ukraine on Feb. 24.
For those reasons, "none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons," Burns said.
That said, despite "rhetorical posturing" by the Kremlin about putting the world's largest nuclear arsenal on high alert, "We haven't seen a lot of practical evidence of the kind of deployments or military dispositions that would reinforce that concern.”
Burns made his comments in response to a question from former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, a leading arms control advocate, at the end of his first speech since taking the helm of the premier U.S. spy agency in March 2021.
My caution in this regard is that he is in the corner as never before. His mental state. recent defeats, humiliation, the state of the Russian economy, powerful forces against him, poor reading of NATO and fury -- how can you be so sure that he will continue in a bluffing state of mind?
Have you seen the list of people fired or arrested? Almost Stalinesque. He has issued instructions that any city not captured by may 10th is to be razed.
He is at war with NATO and the West. If his nucs actually work he will eventually use them as he will have nothing else left. All the rest of his bluster about attacking incoming military supplies etc is just bluff. With what? He can't beat Ukraine as he has not enough ability so far.
Allen, The following is and excerpt from Tom Friedman's article in the NYTimes, 'Fee Advice for Putin: "Make Peace, You Fool". Friedman consulted with John Arquilla, retired professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. His ideas were new to me and I think notable.
“Bitskrieg: The New Challenge of Cyberwarfare.” (Arquilla's book)
“In that book, I outlined the three new rules of war, all of which I am seeing being employed by the Ukrainians,” he explained. “The first is that many and small beats large and heavy. The Ukrainians are operating in squad-level units armed with smart weapons, and these are able to disrupt far larger formations and attack slow-moving, loud helicopters and such. So even though they’re outnumbered by the Russians, the Ukrainians have many, many more units of action — usually between eight and 10 soldiers in size.”
Arquilla said that these small Ukrainian units armed with precision-guided smart weapons like killer drones, antiaircraft weapons and light anti-tank weapons “can take out the Russians’ much larger and more heavily armed tank units.”
'The second rule of modern warfare playing out in Ukraine, he said, “is that finding always beats flanking. If you can locate the enemy first, you can take him out. And especially if the enemy is made up of a few large units, like a 40-mile-long convoy of tanks and armored personnel carriers, you’re going to hammer the hell out of them with your small squads, without having to outflank them with an equal-sized force.”
I asked Arquilla why the Ukrainians are so good at finding. (I assume they are getting some reconnaissance help from NATO.)'
“The Ukrainians are making very good use of small drones, particularly those Turkish drones, which are tremendous,” said Arquilla. But it’s their human sensors — the informal Ukrainian observer corps — that are devastating the Russians. Grandmas with iPhones can trump satellites.'
“The Ukrainian observer corps is made up of babushkas and kids and anyone else who has got a smartphone,” he said. “And they’ve been calling in the locations of where the Russian units are and where they’re moving. And so the Ukrainian forces have this big edge in finding the Russians in this big country, and that is giving their small units with smart weapons” real-time, actionable intelligence.'
'The third rule of new-age warfare playing out in Ukraine, said Arquilla, is that “swarming always beats surging.” He explained: “War is not just a numbers game anymore. You don’t need big numbers to swarm the opponent with a lot of small smart weapons. I am sure you’ve seen some of the videos of these Russian tanks and columns, where suddenly one tank gets taken out at the front and then another at the rear, so the Russians can’t maneuver, and then they just get picked off.”
'Since this is the next phase of warfare and the Russians are not stupid, they will surely adjust in Phase 2, no?'
'The Russians will continue to use some massive bombardments, Arquilla argued, “and they’ll be even less restrained about doing so in eastern Ukraine than they have been in its western territory. But rubble makes conquest harder. Recall Stalingrad.” The Nazis bombed Stalingrad into the Stone Age in World War II but then had to try to move through the rubble in small units to secure it and could not do so. (NYTimes) See link below.
Allen, The eruption of care and affection for you was evident on the forum today. Check it out. The people want to know how you are. I did not think of you until I saw Lauren's spotlight on Allen and Ukraine. I'm thinking of you now and of Tanya. There were questions about where and how you are - about Lucky, too. Care, love and victory to Ukraine with warm wishes to you, Tanya and your families over this Holiday and in all the years to come.
Hi, You unfamous, uninfamous and not-nefarious (hmm, no guarantees, here) son of a gun, this one's for you.
from: Daily 202, WAPO
President Vladimir Putin made his former Syria commander top dog in Ukraine. To many, Russia’s bombardment of Mariupol feels like a repeat of the 2016 bombing of Aleppo. Once again, Russia is disregarding humanitarian corridors, spreading propaganda and committing war crimes.
“As the war drags on, the parallels deepen,” my colleague Ishaan Tharoor writes. “The ruthless tactics and bombing campaigns that Russia unfurled across the Middle Eastern nation served as something of a trial run for the Russian war effort in Ukraine. And, in less than two months, the battles are producing effects on the ground that are tragically familiar to anyone who experienced or watched Syria’s decade-long implosion.”
But — fortunately for Ukrainians — the two conflicts differ in some crucial ways. Syria may have emboldened Putin, but it’s hardly a playbook for invading Ukraine, where Ukraine’s stronger-than-expected defense is now calling Russia’s military prowess into serious question. Let’s explore some reasons.
Russia could hide its military shortcomings in Syria — but not in Ukraine
Putin is sending loads more troops to Ukraine than he ever sent to Syria. At any given time, he put only several thousand troops in Syria to help President Bashar al-Assad’s effort to squash opposition groups. That allowed him to mask any deficiencies by rotating his best units in and out, said Joel Rayburn, who served as the United States Special Envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2021.
That’s simply not an option in Ukraine, where Putin has sent an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 troops. Russia’s military is on display to the world — and it doesn’t look pretty. It’s been slow to switch course, mired in clunky bureaucracy and operating with poor intelligence.
For example, when Russia approached Kyiv it did so by sending a long column of tanks and other military vehicles which had to stay on the roads and were therefore vulnerable to attack by Ukrainians. In Syria, Russia mostly stuck to giving air support. (Here, my colleague Liz Sly outlines other missteps by Russia.)
“[Russia’s] institutional shortcomings in manning, training, equipping and leading — and just operating — came out very clearly,” Rayburn told me.
Russia is up against a united government this time
In Syria, Russia aligned with the central government, led by Assad, against opposition groups who became fragmented over time. In Ukraine, Russian is up against the unified central government of Ukraine.
Assad promulgated a global propaganda campaign labeling all opposition groups — including peaceful protesters — as “terrorists” aligned with ISIS. The oppressive regime’s tactics forced divisions among the dozens of individual groups and clouded the initial rally cries for freedom. Eventually, the various groups lost the same vision for the way forward; for example, some just wanted Assad gone while others with more extreme views wanted to replace his regime with an Islamist government.
It’s a different scenario entirely in Ukraine. Russia’s annexation of Crimea back in 2014 prompted Ukraine to start beefing up its military. Its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been viewed as a strong uniter of the country. And Ukrainians have better morale because they’re fighting alongside each other for their homes and families.
“The Syrian resistance was never well-organized, whereas the Ukrainians have really held together,” said Michel O’Hanlon, director of research for foreign policy for the Brookings Institution.
“You had opponents of Assad working at cross purposes,” said Steve Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Unlike Ukraine, where you have a president, army and civil defense.”
Ukrainians are better armed than Syrians were
In Syria, the Russians were mostly up against light infantry — not heavy weaponry — and virtually no air defense. But in Ukraine, Russia vastly miscalculated the ability of its bombing campaign to take out the country’s air force and air-defense systems.
“[Russia] didn’t anticipate the kind of resistance,” Cook said.
And because Ukraine enjoys broad international support, it has received a steady supply of weapons from the United States and allies. While the United States supplied some weapons to Syrian opposition groups, the scale was much smaller and the aid didn’t come until a few years into the war.
When Russia first invaded seven weeks ago, Ukrainians met with surprising success by using Turkish-made drones called Bayraktars to demolish Russian equipment.
Now, as Russia appears to gird up for a second phase of its offensive, the United States is bolstering its supply of weapons to the country. The Biden administration is preparing to transfer armored Humvees and other sophisticated equipment, my colleagues Dan Lamothe and Karoun Demirjian reported.
Syrians are sharing their experience with Ukrainians
My colleague Josh Rogin recently interviewed the leader of the Syrian Civil Defense Force, known as the White Helmets. While the group’s primary role is to rescue, evacuate and give emergency care to civilians, its volunteers have recently focused on helping Ukrainians. They’re preparing a series of videos that give Ukrainians practical advice on how to survive a Russian assault, with tips like using walkie-talkies instead of cellphones and watching for follow up attacks — known as “double taps” — seven to nine minutes after the first one to hit first responders.
I caught up Wednesday with its leader, Raed al Saleh, who pointed something else out. He noted that Ukraine already has infrastructure in place for delivering aid, whereas in Syria it took years to get aid flowing.
“The support and resources in Syria was something very different,” he said. “It took many years to establish resources and NGOs.”
A letter writer, people like us, becoming famous or infamous as a result of letter that he or she wrote would, I think, be a first. It would have to be some letter! Could it pass the editor's smell test?
Allen, I'm not trying to encourage you, just imagining what it would take to stir such attention.
TY, TC. You make the tactical aspects understandable for me. Let's hope that the help starts pouring in from anywhere and everywhere. The prospect of this getting any more brutal is almost unimaginable but so possible.
You know, you often talk about the logistical failures of the Russian armies-- the refueling, resupplying issues. I am wondering about the Ukrainian fighters who have been at this without relief for all these weeks. I know they are fighting for their country, so highly motivated, but how in the world can they keep this up in the face of this coming escalation??
Lucian Truscott has a good analysis up this morning at his Substack.
He points out that the Russians may have invaded with as many as 190,000 troops, but they faced an army of 125,000, with 900,000 trained reservists, and an army better-trained and motivated. It is a truism in military planning that an attacking force has to outnumber a defending force by at least 3:1. A 1:1 split always favors the defense. And Putin doesn't have many more troops than he has sent that he can afford to send without being able to keep the lid on the simmering pot of a country he "rules."
Another friend pointed out that "The Butcher of Aleppo" made his reputation against an untrained mob that was unsupported by an equal power, and unequipped with the tools to oppose his force. In other words, this guy has never really fought against an actual Trained Opponent.
Now that weapons are flowing to Ukraine, I'm going to go out on a tree limb and say that if I was betting, I'd be betting against Putin and his gang.
As a combat veteran I understand in my bones what you have laid out TC, if this doesn’t make a person very afraid, then they are clueless. A lot of people, some good some bad, are going to die in the next few weeks, it’s going to come down to who has the will and the superior technology, if either side possesses both they will prevail. We should all be praying that the money we have spent on armaments over the last few decades will trump anything the Russians have developed, and that our collective government’s will have been expediting it to the Ukrainians so that they are ready for the coming onslaught, they are our proxies and there is no way we can ask them to enter this fight with one arm tied behind their back. We don’t need to know what we are giving them, nor does the incessant media, what really matters is that the Russians discover it when it’s too late and their vaunted army is being annihilated. We didn’t ask for this fight, and neither did the Ukrainians, so now is the time to put a stop to the evil that Putin is unleashing upon the innocent.🇺🇦
You wrote: "We don’t need to know what we are giving them, nor does the incessant media, what really matters is that the Russians discover it when it’s too late and their vaunted army is being annihilated."
I so agree, especially about the media obsession with weaponry. I know they need "news" but for heaven sakes, don't they realize that Putin and his ilk are watching too? Duh.
Ellen, In order to be able to assess the war, it is necessary to know the factors pertaining to it, including weaponry and intelligence capabilities. The press needs that information and many of us who are interested in the welfare of Ukraine; how the U.S., NATO and others countries support democracy and the level to which they are committed to the lives of human beings; a sense of the whole picture -- we need to know. What is the interest in limiting journalism and the people's need to know?
Fern, sorry to be slow getting back...this is a day! I have no disagreement with you and you certainly make a good point. I support the free press and appreciate the truth they bring to us...many are risking their lives to do so. I worry about showing too much of our "hand" to a war criminal. If our military and president and NATO and Ukraine don't worry about what the enemy knows, I probably should just trust them! After all, this is an information war too. Good to hear from you!
Hi Ellen. In general, I think it is safe to say, given Russian intelligence, .Putin will know before the press. Whatever the U.S and NATO announce will have been carefully screened beforehand. Sometimes, we want the enemy to know as well as mislead. Cheerio, friend
On a lighter note (I needed this today- ran out of 4 letter words):
"These insults are from an era before the English language got boiled down to 4-letter words.
1. "He had delusions of adequacy ” Walter Kerr
2. "He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.”- Winston Churchill
3. "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure. - Clarence Darrow
4. "He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary.”-William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway)
5. "Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words?"- Ernest Hemingway (about William Faulkner)
6. "Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I'll waste no time reading it.” - Moses Hadas
7. "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.” - Mark Twain
8. "He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends.” - Oscar Wilde
9. "I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend, if you have one.” -George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill
10. "Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second... if there is one.” - Winston Churchill, in response
11. "I feel so miserable without you; it's almost like having you here” - Stephen Bishop
12. "He is a self-made man and worships his creator.” - John Bright
13. "I've just learned about his illness. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.” - Irvin S. Cobb
14. "He is not only dull himself; he is the cause of dullness in others.” - Samuel Johnson
15. "He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up. - Paul Keating
16. "He loves nature in spite of what it did to him.” - Forrest Tucker
17. "Why do you sit there looking like an envelope without any address on it?” - Mark Twain
18. "His mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork.” - Mae West
19. "Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go.” - Oscar Wilde
20. "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination.” - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
21. "He has Van Gogh's ear for music.” - Billy Wilder
22. "I've had a perfectly wonderful evening. But I'm afraid this wasn't it.” - Groucho Marx
23. The exchange between Winston Churchill & Lady Astor: She said, "If you were my husband I'd give you poison." He said, "If you were my wife, I'd drink it."
24. "He can compress the most words into the smallest idea of any man I know." - Abraham Lincoln
25. "There's nothing wrong with you that reincarnation won't cure." -- Jack E. Leonard
26. "They never open their mouths without subtracting from the sum of human knowledge." -- Thomas Brackett Reed
27. "He inherited some good instincts from his Quaker forebears, but by diligent hard work, he overcame them." -- James Reston (about Richard Nixon) —Robert L Truesdell"
A welcome jaunt in this time deviltry! You know what and how to deliver. Thank you MaryPat.
""It makes sense to send American equipment to former Warsaw Pact countries and ask them to transfer their Soviet-made armored vehicles, which the Ukrainians are more likely to be familiar, to Ukraine...What’s coming is a battle on the Ukrainian steppe the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the Battle of Kursk and Marshall Rokossovsky’s general offensive in the summer of 1943. Kursk was the biggest tank battle in history."
Thank You TC for such a clear (if devastating) military report. I have shared.
Here comes the destruction Putin inflicted on Chechnya to be delivered to Ukraine.
'It appears that the stakes of the next month have gotten through to the United States and NATO, with recent announcements they are rushing myriad forms of military assistance to Ukraine.' Yes, TC, so it 'appears' but what good will it do? The Mi-17 heavy assault helicopters that you referred to, I understand are no longer part of the package. So, what proportion will Ukraine get of what it has been begging for?
Ukraine still doesn't have the type of weaponry it needs to destroy the Russian military, which is out to flatten the country and kill as many Ukrainians as it possibly can.
Putin won't get Ukraine. How much of Ukraine will be standing in June? What of the Ukrainians - the people - how many of them will still be standing?
Here we are humans witnessing evil without the tools to put an end to it.
What about Putin? What of his future? Russia - the Russian people - what about them?
The odds are in favor of the survival of Ukraine.
Lessons to be learned from the noble, Ukrainians, President Zelensky and their mighty battle for Democracy.
Putin can take Ukraine only by killing the last Ukrainian standing and destroying the last building. He can turn it into a desert wasteland but he still will have lost because Ukraine will not bow to him
Allen, regarding thoughts about Putin's use of nuclear weapons, you may have seen the following as it is in Reuters:
U.S. cannot 'take lightly' threat Russia could use nuclear weapons - CIA chief
House Intelligence Committee holds hearing on worldwide threats in Washington
CIA Director William Burns speaks during a House Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats, in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 15, 2021.
WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - The threat of Russia potentially using tactical or low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine cannot be taken lightly, but the CIA has not seen a lot of practical evidence reinforcing that concern, CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday.
In a speech at Georgia Tech, Burns referred to the "potential desperation" and military setbacks that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government have suffered since moved forces into Ukraine on Feb. 24.
For those reasons, "none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons," Burns said.
That said, despite "rhetorical posturing" by the Kremlin about putting the world's largest nuclear arsenal on high alert, "We haven't seen a lot of practical evidence of the kind of deployments or military dispositions that would reinforce that concern.”
Burns made his comments in response to a question from former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, a leading arms control advocate, at the end of his first speech since taking the helm of the premier U.S. spy agency in March 2021.
***
Putin claimed to have put his nuclear division on high alert but in fact did not. It is all bluff
My caution in this regard is that he is in the corner as never before. His mental state. recent defeats, humiliation, the state of the Russian economy, powerful forces against him, poor reading of NATO and fury -- how can you be so sure that he will continue in a bluffing state of mind?
And there you have it.
TC, this is a time when I didn't want to 'have it'. Your elaboration if there is one to be made, please.
Have you seen the list of people fired or arrested? Almost Stalinesque. He has issued instructions that any city not captured by may 10th is to be razed.
He is at war with NATO and the West. If his nucs actually work he will eventually use them as he will have nothing else left. All the rest of his bluster about attacking incoming military supplies etc is just bluff. With what? He can't beat Ukraine as he has not enough ability so far.
Yes, Allen. You're counting on 'them' not working, while listing exactly why I'm uneasy. Isn't his behavior a bad sign? Who's to stop him?
Just read this in the NYT. 'Among the other items in the package are 11 Soviet-era Mi-17 helicopters ..."
Allen, My understanding was these helicopters were in, then out and now back in.
They are in. Zelensky talked to Biden
Allen, Do you understand my concern re nukes given circumstances and Putin's possible unraveling?
See my comment elsewhere to you
Allen, The following is and excerpt from Tom Friedman's article in the NYTimes, 'Fee Advice for Putin: "Make Peace, You Fool". Friedman consulted with John Arquilla, retired professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. His ideas were new to me and I think notable.
“Bitskrieg: The New Challenge of Cyberwarfare.” (Arquilla's book)
“In that book, I outlined the three new rules of war, all of which I am seeing being employed by the Ukrainians,” he explained. “The first is that many and small beats large and heavy. The Ukrainians are operating in squad-level units armed with smart weapons, and these are able to disrupt far larger formations and attack slow-moving, loud helicopters and such. So even though they’re outnumbered by the Russians, the Ukrainians have many, many more units of action — usually between eight and 10 soldiers in size.”
Arquilla said that these small Ukrainian units armed with precision-guided smart weapons like killer drones, antiaircraft weapons and light anti-tank weapons “can take out the Russians’ much larger and more heavily armed tank units.”
'The second rule of modern warfare playing out in Ukraine, he said, “is that finding always beats flanking. If you can locate the enemy first, you can take him out. And especially if the enemy is made up of a few large units, like a 40-mile-long convoy of tanks and armored personnel carriers, you’re going to hammer the hell out of them with your small squads, without having to outflank them with an equal-sized force.”
I asked Arquilla why the Ukrainians are so good at finding. (I assume they are getting some reconnaissance help from NATO.)'
“The Ukrainians are making very good use of small drones, particularly those Turkish drones, which are tremendous,” said Arquilla. But it’s their human sensors — the informal Ukrainian observer corps — that are devastating the Russians. Grandmas with iPhones can trump satellites.'
“The Ukrainian observer corps is made up of babushkas and kids and anyone else who has got a smartphone,” he said. “And they’ve been calling in the locations of where the Russian units are and where they’re moving. And so the Ukrainian forces have this big edge in finding the Russians in this big country, and that is giving their small units with smart weapons” real-time, actionable intelligence.'
'The third rule of new-age warfare playing out in Ukraine, said Arquilla, is that “swarming always beats surging.” He explained: “War is not just a numbers game anymore. You don’t need big numbers to swarm the opponent with a lot of small smart weapons. I am sure you’ve seen some of the videos of these Russian tanks and columns, where suddenly one tank gets taken out at the front and then another at the rear, so the Russians can’t maneuver, and then they just get picked off.”
'Since this is the next phase of warfare and the Russians are not stupid, they will surely adjust in Phase 2, no?'
'The Russians will continue to use some massive bombardments, Arquilla argued, “and they’ll be even less restrained about doing so in eastern Ukraine than they have been in its western territory. But rubble makes conquest harder. Recall Stalingrad.” The Nazis bombed Stalingrad into the Stone Age in World War II but then had to try to move through the rubble in small units to secure it and could not do so. (NYTimes) See link below.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/opinion/putin-ukraine-war-strategy.html
Allen, The eruption of care and affection for you was evident on the forum today. Check it out. The people want to know how you are. I did not think of you until I saw Lauren's spotlight on Allen and Ukraine. I'm thinking of you now and of Tanya. There were questions about where and how you are - about Lucky, too. Care, love and victory to Ukraine with warm wishes to you, Tanya and your families over this Holiday and in all the years to come.
💗 🟨🟦 🌻
Okay. Got to run. I'LL BE BACK!
Allen, Would you consider sending that statement to the editorial departments/news directors/letters to the editor of the news outlets that you use?
No. I don't want to be famous or infamous
Hi, You unfamous, uninfamous and not-nefarious (hmm, no guarantees, here) son of a gun, this one's for you.
from: Daily 202, WAPO
President Vladimir Putin made his former Syria commander top dog in Ukraine. To many, Russia’s bombardment of Mariupol feels like a repeat of the 2016 bombing of Aleppo. Once again, Russia is disregarding humanitarian corridors, spreading propaganda and committing war crimes.
“As the war drags on, the parallels deepen,” my colleague Ishaan Tharoor writes. “The ruthless tactics and bombing campaigns that Russia unfurled across the Middle Eastern nation served as something of a trial run for the Russian war effort in Ukraine. And, in less than two months, the battles are producing effects on the ground that are tragically familiar to anyone who experienced or watched Syria’s decade-long implosion.”
But — fortunately for Ukrainians — the two conflicts differ in some crucial ways. Syria may have emboldened Putin, but it’s hardly a playbook for invading Ukraine, where Ukraine’s stronger-than-expected defense is now calling Russia’s military prowess into serious question. Let’s explore some reasons.
Russia could hide its military shortcomings in Syria — but not in Ukraine
Putin is sending loads more troops to Ukraine than he ever sent to Syria. At any given time, he put only several thousand troops in Syria to help President Bashar al-Assad’s effort to squash opposition groups. That allowed him to mask any deficiencies by rotating his best units in and out, said Joel Rayburn, who served as the United States Special Envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2021.
That’s simply not an option in Ukraine, where Putin has sent an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 troops. Russia’s military is on display to the world — and it doesn’t look pretty. It’s been slow to switch course, mired in clunky bureaucracy and operating with poor intelligence.
For example, when Russia approached Kyiv it did so by sending a long column of tanks and other military vehicles which had to stay on the roads and were therefore vulnerable to attack by Ukrainians. In Syria, Russia mostly stuck to giving air support. (Here, my colleague Liz Sly outlines other missteps by Russia.)
“[Russia’s] institutional shortcomings in manning, training, equipping and leading — and just operating — came out very clearly,” Rayburn told me.
Russia is up against a united government this time
In Syria, Russia aligned with the central government, led by Assad, against opposition groups who became fragmented over time. In Ukraine, Russian is up against the unified central government of Ukraine.
Assad promulgated a global propaganda campaign labeling all opposition groups — including peaceful protesters — as “terrorists” aligned with ISIS. The oppressive regime’s tactics forced divisions among the dozens of individual groups and clouded the initial rally cries for freedom. Eventually, the various groups lost the same vision for the way forward; for example, some just wanted Assad gone while others with more extreme views wanted to replace his regime with an Islamist government.
It’s a different scenario entirely in Ukraine. Russia’s annexation of Crimea back in 2014 prompted Ukraine to start beefing up its military. Its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been viewed as a strong uniter of the country. And Ukrainians have better morale because they’re fighting alongside each other for their homes and families.
“The Syrian resistance was never well-organized, whereas the Ukrainians have really held together,” said Michel O’Hanlon, director of research for foreign policy for the Brookings Institution.
“You had opponents of Assad working at cross purposes,” said Steve Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Unlike Ukraine, where you have a president, army and civil defense.”
Ukrainians are better armed than Syrians were
In Syria, the Russians were mostly up against light infantry — not heavy weaponry — and virtually no air defense. But in Ukraine, Russia vastly miscalculated the ability of its bombing campaign to take out the country’s air force and air-defense systems.
“[Russia] didn’t anticipate the kind of resistance,” Cook said.
And because Ukraine enjoys broad international support, it has received a steady supply of weapons from the United States and allies. While the United States supplied some weapons to Syrian opposition groups, the scale was much smaller and the aid didn’t come until a few years into the war.
When Russia first invaded seven weeks ago, Ukrainians met with surprising success by using Turkish-made drones called Bayraktars to demolish Russian equipment.
Now, as Russia appears to gird up for a second phase of its offensive, the United States is bolstering its supply of weapons to the country. The Biden administration is preparing to transfer armored Humvees and other sophisticated equipment, my colleagues Dan Lamothe and Karoun Demirjian reported.
Syrians are sharing their experience with Ukrainians
My colleague Josh Rogin recently interviewed the leader of the Syrian Civil Defense Force, known as the White Helmets. While the group’s primary role is to rescue, evacuate and give emergency care to civilians, its volunteers have recently focused on helping Ukrainians. They’re preparing a series of videos that give Ukrainians practical advice on how to survive a Russian assault, with tips like using walkie-talkies instead of cellphones and watching for follow up attacks — known as “double taps” — seven to nine minutes after the first one to hit first responders.
I caught up Wednesday with its leader, Raed al Saleh, who pointed something else out. He noted that Ukraine already has infrastructure in place for delivering aid, whereas in Syria it took years to get aid flowing.
“The support and resources in Syria was something very different,” he said. “It took many years to establish resources and NGOs.”
***
Ukraine ain't Syria. Which I am going to post on later.
I've known that forever! Can't you tell? Never mind, you're probably too busy. Hollywood is so consuming!
A letter writer, people like us, becoming famous or infamous as a result of letter that he or she wrote would, I think, be a first. It would have to be some letter! Could it pass the editor's smell test?
Allen, I'm not trying to encourage you, just imagining what it would take to stir such attention.
Beware of deadlines with "significant symbolism". Nothing good comes from those. Well, except for Juneteenth, which has taken too long.
TY, TC. You make the tactical aspects understandable for me. Let's hope that the help starts pouring in from anywhere and everywhere. The prospect of this getting any more brutal is almost unimaginable but so possible.
You know, you often talk about the logistical failures of the Russian armies-- the refueling, resupplying issues. I am wondering about the Ukrainian fighters who have been at this without relief for all these weeks. I know they are fighting for their country, so highly motivated, but how in the world can they keep this up in the face of this coming escalation??
The USMC in its questionable redesign has recently rid itself of all its tanks. Lets get these to Ukraine ASAP so they can kick some Russian ass!
They did WHAT??? I am not a veteran, combat or otherwise. The phrase in this article "like a Swiss Army Knife with several blades removed" seems apt.
https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-marine-corps/2021/03/22/goodbye-tanks-how-the-marine-corps-will-change-and-what-it-will-lose-by-ditching-its-armor/
OH.