Today, Tuesday April 12, Vladimir Putin said that the war would not end until Russia could see that they had gained their goals. The next four weeks, ending on the annual Victory Day celebration in Moscow celebrating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II on May 9, are a crucial and intensely dangerous period in Russia's war on Ukraine. That makes it a deadline with significant symbolism in Russian domestic politics.
Lucian Truscott has a good analysis up this morning at his Substack.
He points out that the Russians may have invaded with as many as 190,000 troops, but they faced an army of 125,000, with 900,000 trained reservists, and an army better-trained and motivated. It is a truism in military planning that an attacking force has to outnumber a defending force by at least 3:1. A 1:1 split always favors the defense. And Putin doesn't have many more troops than he has sent that he can afford to send without being able to keep the lid on the simmering pot of a country he "rules."
Another friend pointed out that "The Butcher of Aleppo" made his reputation against an untrained mob that was unsupported by an equal power, and unequipped with the tools to oppose his force. In other words, this guy has never really fought against an actual Trained Opponent.
Now that weapons are flowing to Ukraine, I'm going to go out on a tree limb and say that if I was betting, I'd be betting against Putin and his gang.
As a combat veteran I understand in my bones what you have laid out TC, if this doesn’t make a person very afraid, then they are clueless. A lot of people, some good some bad, are going to die in the next few weeks, it’s going to come down to who has the will and the superior technology, if either side possesses both they will prevail. We should all be praying that the money we have spent on armaments over the last few decades will trump anything the Russians have developed, and that our collective government’s will have been expediting it to the Ukrainians so that they are ready for the coming onslaught, they are our proxies and there is no way we can ask them to enter this fight with one arm tied behind their back. We don’t need to know what we are giving them, nor does the incessant media, what really matters is that the Russians discover it when it’s too late and their vaunted army is being annihilated. We didn’t ask for this fight, and neither did the Ukrainians, so now is the time to put a stop to the evil that Putin is unleashing upon the innocent.🇺🇦
On a lighter note (I needed this today- ran out of 4 letter words):
"These insults are from an era before the English language got boiled down to 4-letter words.
1. "He had delusions of adequacy ” Walter Kerr
2. "He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.”- Winston Churchill
3. "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure. - Clarence Darrow
4. "He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary.”-William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway)
5. "Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words?"- Ernest Hemingway (about William Faulkner)
6. "Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I'll waste no time reading it.” - Moses Hadas
7. "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.” - Mark Twain
8. "He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends.” - Oscar Wilde
9. "I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend, if you have one.” -George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill
10. "Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second... if there is one.” - Winston Churchill, in response
11. "I feel so miserable without you; it's almost like having you here” - Stephen Bishop
12. "He is a self-made man and worships his creator.” - John Bright
13. "I've just learned about his illness. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.” - Irvin S. Cobb
14. "He is not only dull himself; he is the cause of dullness in others.” - Samuel Johnson
15. "He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up. - Paul Keating
16. "He loves nature in spite of what it did to him.” - Forrest Tucker
17. "Why do you sit there looking like an envelope without any address on it?” - Mark Twain
18. "His mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork.” - Mae West
19. "Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go.” - Oscar Wilde
20. "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination.” - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
21. "He has Van Gogh's ear for music.” - Billy Wilder
22. "I've had a perfectly wonderful evening. But I'm afraid this wasn't it.” - Groucho Marx
23. The exchange between Winston Churchill & Lady Astor: She said, "If you were my husband I'd give you poison." He said, "If you were my wife, I'd drink it."
24. "He can compress the most words into the smallest idea of any man I know." - Abraham Lincoln
25. "There's nothing wrong with you that reincarnation won't cure." -- Jack E. Leonard
26. "They never open their mouths without subtracting from the sum of human knowledge." -- Thomas Brackett Reed
27. "He inherited some good instincts from his Quaker forebears, but by diligent hard work, he overcame them." -- James Reston (about Richard Nixon) —Robert L Truesdell"
""It makes sense to send American equipment to former Warsaw Pact countries and ask them to transfer their Soviet-made armored vehicles, which the Ukrainians are more likely to be familiar, to Ukraine...What’s coming is a battle on the Ukrainian steppe the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the Battle of Kursk and Marshall Rokossovsky’s general offensive in the summer of 1943. Kursk was the biggest tank battle in history."
Thank You TC for such a clear (if devastating) military report. I have shared.
Here comes the destruction Putin inflicted on Chechnya to be delivered to Ukraine.
'It appears that the stakes of the next month have gotten through to the United States and NATO, with recent announcements they are rushing myriad forms of military assistance to Ukraine.' Yes, TC, so it 'appears' but what good will it do? The Mi-17 heavy assault helicopters that you referred to, I understand are no longer part of the package. So, what proportion will Ukraine get of what it has been begging for?
Ukraine still doesn't have the type of weaponry it needs to destroy the Russian military, which is out to flatten the country and kill as many Ukrainians as it possibly can.
Putin won't get Ukraine. How much of Ukraine will be standing in June? What of the Ukrainians - the people - how many of them will still be standing?
Here we are humans witnessing evil without the tools to put an end to it.
What about Putin? What of his future? Russia - the Russian people - what about them?
The odds are in favor of the survival of Ukraine.
Lessons to be learned from the noble, Ukrainians, President Zelensky and their mighty battle for Democracy.
TY, TC. You make the tactical aspects understandable for me. Let's hope that the help starts pouring in from anywhere and everywhere. The prospect of this getting any more brutal is almost unimaginable but so possible.
You know, you often talk about the logistical failures of the Russian armies-- the refueling, resupplying issues. I am wondering about the Ukrainian fighters who have been at this without relief for all these weeks. I know they are fighting for their country, so highly motivated, but how in the world can they keep this up in the face of this coming escalation??
Lucian Truscott has a good analysis up this morning at his Substack.
He points out that the Russians may have invaded with as many as 190,000 troops, but they faced an army of 125,000, with 900,000 trained reservists, and an army better-trained and motivated. It is a truism in military planning that an attacking force has to outnumber a defending force by at least 3:1. A 1:1 split always favors the defense. And Putin doesn't have many more troops than he has sent that he can afford to send without being able to keep the lid on the simmering pot of a country he "rules."
Another friend pointed out that "The Butcher of Aleppo" made his reputation against an untrained mob that was unsupported by an equal power, and unequipped with the tools to oppose his force. In other words, this guy has never really fought against an actual Trained Opponent.
Now that weapons are flowing to Ukraine, I'm going to go out on a tree limb and say that if I was betting, I'd be betting against Putin and his gang.
As a combat veteran I understand in my bones what you have laid out TC, if this doesn’t make a person very afraid, then they are clueless. A lot of people, some good some bad, are going to die in the next few weeks, it’s going to come down to who has the will and the superior technology, if either side possesses both they will prevail. We should all be praying that the money we have spent on armaments over the last few decades will trump anything the Russians have developed, and that our collective government’s will have been expediting it to the Ukrainians so that they are ready for the coming onslaught, they are our proxies and there is no way we can ask them to enter this fight with one arm tied behind their back. We don’t need to know what we are giving them, nor does the incessant media, what really matters is that the Russians discover it when it’s too late and their vaunted army is being annihilated. We didn’t ask for this fight, and neither did the Ukrainians, so now is the time to put a stop to the evil that Putin is unleashing upon the innocent.🇺🇦
On a lighter note (I needed this today- ran out of 4 letter words):
"These insults are from an era before the English language got boiled down to 4-letter words.
1. "He had delusions of adequacy ” Walter Kerr
2. "He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.”- Winston Churchill
3. "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure. - Clarence Darrow
4. "He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary.”-William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway)
5. "Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words?"- Ernest Hemingway (about William Faulkner)
6. "Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I'll waste no time reading it.” - Moses Hadas
7. "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.” - Mark Twain
8. "He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends.” - Oscar Wilde
9. "I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend, if you have one.” -George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill
10. "Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second... if there is one.” - Winston Churchill, in response
11. "I feel so miserable without you; it's almost like having you here” - Stephen Bishop
12. "He is a self-made man and worships his creator.” - John Bright
13. "I've just learned about his illness. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.” - Irvin S. Cobb
14. "He is not only dull himself; he is the cause of dullness in others.” - Samuel Johnson
15. "He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up. - Paul Keating
16. "He loves nature in spite of what it did to him.” - Forrest Tucker
17. "Why do you sit there looking like an envelope without any address on it?” - Mark Twain
18. "His mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork.” - Mae West
19. "Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go.” - Oscar Wilde
20. "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination.” - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
21. "He has Van Gogh's ear for music.” - Billy Wilder
22. "I've had a perfectly wonderful evening. But I'm afraid this wasn't it.” - Groucho Marx
23. The exchange between Winston Churchill & Lady Astor: She said, "If you were my husband I'd give you poison." He said, "If you were my wife, I'd drink it."
24. "He can compress the most words into the smallest idea of any man I know." - Abraham Lincoln
25. "There's nothing wrong with you that reincarnation won't cure." -- Jack E. Leonard
26. "They never open their mouths without subtracting from the sum of human knowledge." -- Thomas Brackett Reed
27. "He inherited some good instincts from his Quaker forebears, but by diligent hard work, he overcame them." -- James Reston (about Richard Nixon) —Robert L Truesdell"
""It makes sense to send American equipment to former Warsaw Pact countries and ask them to transfer their Soviet-made armored vehicles, which the Ukrainians are more likely to be familiar, to Ukraine...What’s coming is a battle on the Ukrainian steppe the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the Battle of Kursk and Marshall Rokossovsky’s general offensive in the summer of 1943. Kursk was the biggest tank battle in history."
Thank You TC for such a clear (if devastating) military report. I have shared.
Here comes the destruction Putin inflicted on Chechnya to be delivered to Ukraine.
'It appears that the stakes of the next month have gotten through to the United States and NATO, with recent announcements they are rushing myriad forms of military assistance to Ukraine.' Yes, TC, so it 'appears' but what good will it do? The Mi-17 heavy assault helicopters that you referred to, I understand are no longer part of the package. So, what proportion will Ukraine get of what it has been begging for?
Ukraine still doesn't have the type of weaponry it needs to destroy the Russian military, which is out to flatten the country and kill as many Ukrainians as it possibly can.
Putin won't get Ukraine. How much of Ukraine will be standing in June? What of the Ukrainians - the people - how many of them will still be standing?
Here we are humans witnessing evil without the tools to put an end to it.
What about Putin? What of his future? Russia - the Russian people - what about them?
The odds are in favor of the survival of Ukraine.
Lessons to be learned from the noble, Ukrainians, President Zelensky and their mighty battle for Democracy.
Beware of deadlines with "significant symbolism". Nothing good comes from those. Well, except for Juneteenth, which has taken too long.
TY, TC. You make the tactical aspects understandable for me. Let's hope that the help starts pouring in from anywhere and everywhere. The prospect of this getting any more brutal is almost unimaginable but so possible.
You know, you often talk about the logistical failures of the Russian armies-- the refueling, resupplying issues. I am wondering about the Ukrainian fighters who have been at this without relief for all these weeks. I know they are fighting for their country, so highly motivated, but how in the world can they keep this up in the face of this coming escalation??
The USMC in its questionable redesign has recently rid itself of all its tanks. Lets get these to Ukraine ASAP so they can kick some Russian ass!