The “news” today at the Bulwark, the morning note at Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall’s subscriber email, and every show on MSNBC, was that Trump “underperformed” in Iowa last night.
If donating is all you can, that counts. Now that It's 2024 and things are rolling, I am afraid I'll be dipping into my retirement savings again, but if we don't pull this off, I'm too old and creaky to run too far and there will be nowhere to run to anyway. I'm waiting to hear back from local Dem party about poll observer and registration and what ever needs doing. You're on it too Vic, and don't forget Jessica Cravens multi task lists of lots to do and how.
A coupla things, trump won in 2016 running against Clinton.with the help of MSM America’s billions in fee advertising basically parroting “lock her up” Then America suffered through his term and in 2020 electing a sane and seasoned politician with actual experience and skills both domestically and internationally
This year the “lock HIM up” chant has some reality attached
Second, polls ain’t what they used to be and collecting a valid sample is tough going with the demise of landlines and strength of caller ID. Factor in the bias of those “wanting to be surveyed, then look at the dumb leading questions now being used
Third, giggles and grins, winning Iowa typically means you don’t win on election day
We’re rightfully biting our nails but I’m taking the Hubbell approach, fight like hell now, but trust in the sanity of the voters
I have always felt like the eleven-days-prior-to-the-election announcement by Comey that there were still more emails to go through and (eye brow waggle) who knows what we'll find... was the tipping point where many potential Hillary voters just stayed home.
This article highlights something I have noticed, which is that there are different personality types at play. Some withdraw when too discouraged and some fight harder when they feel they are down. When I see writers acting like being discouraged might keep people home, I think that might be true for some, but certainly not all. Some need the clear eyed view that it's Not in the bag and they can't stay home out of a feeling of complacency. Democracy needs everyone - no one staying home out of either emotional calculation. It needs action in response to facts.
Absolutely correct. In Germany people are going to the streets to protest the AfD, a version of the current gop. They are making clear that the AfD endangers Germany and everyone living in Germany. Maybe we need such a movement hitting the streets all around the US.. .protests against gop "policies" like allowing migrants to die in the Rio Grande, banning books, banning health care, crashing out of NATO, supporting putin, orban, and other dictators, etc. No one should be silent about this political party. Being vocal and visible is necessary and significant for defining the situation the nation faces. Democracy is on the ballot. We are the ones who must defend the kind of nation we want for future generations
This morning it was 7! Cant walk very long because Axel's (dog) feet get cold and I am NOT going to pick up a 50-55 lb dog & carry him back to the house.
So no long walks up by the woods and around the trails! Just take corn up to the 4-legged ones - big & little.
Since tRump is still selling his big old lie that he won in 2020, I'm surprised he hasn't demanded that primaries be cancelled. He's the incumbent, don't you know? I hope he goes to prison, and we the people of democracy have to be prepared for all the craziness of the 10 months.
He's saying that. He's saying that everyone should now band together and go forward. And they have the "you better do this" part down too - there is a major fundraiser being held at Mar A Lardo on February 16, and the Trump campaign is telling the major Republican donors who supported other candidates and haven't committed to Trump that that's the do-by date "if you want to have any influence." Watch them all get on the Trump Train over the next four weeks.
As I keep saying, 2024 is the most important worst year of our lives.
Well, darn. This is definitely not the news I hoped to hear today and especially from old Chris C. But, I do have heat in the house, energy, vim and enough vigor to stay in the fight until AFTER the bitter end (he will never concede and we know how that plays out), and the only way to win besides showing up, is to be armed with the FACTS, however unpleasant they may be. So, thank you, I guess, TC.
That’s why it’s vital to vote in the primaries. That’s when the electors are picked and it doesn’t matter a fig about the Nov election.
Dave Roos on The History Channel reminds us don the con won the White House last time on electoral votes even though Hillary had almost 3 million more popular votes. Those battleground states like Pennsylvania will save us or dump us into the abyss. https://www.history.com/news/presidents-electoral-college-popular-vote
No. What is chosen in the primaries are the DELEGATES TO THE PARTY CONVENTION who will vote for the candidate. The Electoral College Electors are who you are actually voting for in the November election - the electors pledged to the candidate you are voting for.
Thank you for clearing that up, TC. So tfg got 20 delegates to the national convention in the summer? And that is why it took until Jan 6 to formalize the vote.
No. TFG gets 20 votes to make him the official Republican nominee for President.
The electors voted for in the November election come together in each state on December 18 and formally vote. That vote is then forwarded to Congress, where it is officially accepted on January 6.
I actually tried to research it on the web but when I saw that another name for delegates was electors, I stopped because my head was throbbing so badly. I saw nothing like your excellent summary. Thank you!
Here I am, the crank growling in the far corner, but all of our efforts (and I'm always, always in the fight) may end up with historic down-ballot losses like those of the Battle of the Bulge unless 1) Joe withdraws and endorses Newsom, 2) Harris withdraws and Joe names MI Gov. Whitmer as running mate (more experience, less baggage, no cackling), 3) Trump drops dead (Merely being in a coma will not dissuade the evangelicals.), 4) Joe declines and the Dems run Hunter Biden who has high name recognition, a sketchy personal history, and youthful vigor ( After all, MTG showed us his balls.). Forgive the levity, but it's evident that many voters have conflated governance with show-biz and want the latter more than the former. So give it to 'em, and give it to 'em in the terms they clearly desire. Sigh.
Gonna have to disagree with you solidly Judith. The system doesn't work that way because it can't. And this Californian would never vote for Newsom for President.
As Rumsfeld said, you go to war with the army you have. So buckle down, winsocki. :-)
is it the Kimberly Guilfoyle thing? on this coast, I am unenlightened.
so let me know. I think Whitmer is the one going places. there was a New Yorker profile this past year, which I'll try to find a link for, although I suspect there's a paywall.
Thanks David - no paywall! Really interesting article. I think we will hear much more from and about Gov.Whitmer. She sounds like quite a gal (thats a compliment!!)
what surprised me about her in the article was her steely political savvy and her realistic take on power and how to get it. and then, much more important, how to keep it. and oh yeah, the most important thing (the thing the scumbags seem to have forgotten completely), which is what you do with it.
and she seems very sophisticated in her ability to plan a long game. this article makes her sound very hard to beat.
is it irrelevant or somehow piggy to point out that she's very easy on the eyes? okay...I won't mention it.
That's all absolutely true. What we need to do is cut off the head of the snake and then deal with the snake itself. Not easy tasks. Have you seen the videos of the Trumpers in Iowa saying that they absolutely do want a dictatorship? The bit about the country needing a daddy to give us all a spanking?
It would be helpful if Trump would just drop dead for us, but I doubt that's going to happen. Even if trump loses this up coming election, we're going have trouble with his followers for a long time.
an important BIG piece in this week's "New Yorker," because of its author (Remnick himself), its placement in the issue, and its length. he clearly means it as an essential intervention in this situation we keep returning to in which it's become obvious that Netanyahu is a done deal and will do the kind of thing TFF does to avoid confronting that basic truth. except that TFF is a lot more popular here than that prick Bibi is THERE.
I've never really doubted that trump will be the nominee. I do doubt that, particularly with the actions you urge, he will be the victor in the full election. So arguing about Iowa in terms of whether trump "won" amongst those who turned out doesn't get us far. Because out of the TOTAL registered Republican voters in Iowa, only 8 % voted for trump. We really have no idea what the other 92% will do.
The trouble with polling is that it measures those who WANT to talk to pollsters. Many of us don't answer our phone to calls like that. I just deleted without reading a text that claimed it was from a pollster. My email trash has dozens and dozens of "polls"--most if not all of which want to get me on a mailing list for donations.
I don't think I am alone. Just noted that Dave Dalton just said the same thing.
You probably need to be an elder to recognize that song from 1941. It was released four years before I was born, but it was popular enough that I can remember hearing it when I was young.
I know it well...my parents used to sing it. and my mother was good for a bunch of 'em...like the three little fishees, "Swinging on a Star," "Accentuate the Positive," "Chattanooga Choo-Choo," "A Tisket, A Tasket" ad nauseam. I take that back. it was more like ad infinitum. I still like hearing most of them. why wouldn't I? I was very little and my only connection to death was my rapidly fading, very nasty great-grandma. now, if I ask about somebody I knew in school, I have to be prepared to find out they're not around.
and it just occurred to me that the song was in "Buck Privates," which also featured a very young Ella Fitzgerald getting on a bus and singing "A Tisket, A-Tasket," which was a monster hit for her. I remember it from a Saturday matinee double feature. such matinees included 2 movies, at least one great cartoon (usually two, and recognized classics), a "short subject" (lots of factories making canned soup and coke bottles), and coming attractions. I loved coming in to see a movie in the middle and staying to see the whole thing over so I could figure out how the stories worked, and very consciously. in college, there were TRIPLE features all over town where you'd get half-stoned by the time you found a seat
and still, I've never finished a screenplay. next life perhaps. if there are still movies. if there is still human activity of any kind...
I remember the three little fishees (dont remember the words) do you remember "mares eat oats & does eat oats & little lambs eat ivy"? I think the rest was something like "and you can eat ivy too", but not sure. (maybe its a NY thing)
Yes - but I always thought of it as MARES eat oats (the horse thing!)
And I dont remember the rest either - as Suessi says now it will stick in my brain. But then, David thats so much better than the orange blob sticking there right????
YESSS Could not remember that part! Loved that little ditty - used to sing it when I was very young! Thanks so much - and yes the first part has been stuck in mine because I couldnt remember the last line!
NOT ONE STEP BACK!!! NOT ONE!!! We have to take it to
them! Donate, even $5 will help! Postcards to voters!
Letters to editors for stupid articles! Letters to columnists for their ridiculous remarks! Every representative! The President! Speak up and out!
This is our country too. Shake
it up! We will win!
If donating is all you can, that counts. Now that It's 2024 and things are rolling, I am afraid I'll be dipping into my retirement savings again, but if we don't pull this off, I'm too old and creaky to run too far and there will be nowhere to run to anyway. I'm waiting to hear back from local Dem party about poll observer and registration and what ever needs doing. You're on it too Vic, and don't forget Jessica Cravens multi task lists of lots to do and how.
That is for sure Tom. Like I wrote to that WaPo spitwad Aaron Blake about his The Campaign Moment,
This IS the Campaign Moment and the moment is NOW!!!
There is nothing left to wait for. It's not what you are going to do, it is what ARE you doing
Thank you for burning the oil Tom. You. Jessica, Robert and many others as well keep us focussed.
A coupla things, trump won in 2016 running against Clinton.with the help of MSM America’s billions in fee advertising basically parroting “lock her up” Then America suffered through his term and in 2020 electing a sane and seasoned politician with actual experience and skills both domestically and internationally
This year the “lock HIM up” chant has some reality attached
Second, polls ain’t what they used to be and collecting a valid sample is tough going with the demise of landlines and strength of caller ID. Factor in the bias of those “wanting to be surveyed, then look at the dumb leading questions now being used
Third, giggles and grins, winning Iowa typically means you don’t win on election day
We’re rightfully biting our nails but I’m taking the Hubbell approach, fight like hell now, but trust in the sanity of the voters
I have always felt like the eleven-days-prior-to-the-election announcement by Comey that there were still more emails to go through and (eye brow waggle) who knows what we'll find... was the tipping point where many potential Hillary voters just stayed home.
This article highlights something I have noticed, which is that there are different personality types at play. Some withdraw when too discouraged and some fight harder when they feel they are down. When I see writers acting like being discouraged might keep people home, I think that might be true for some, but certainly not all. Some need the clear eyed view that it's Not in the bag and they can't stay home out of a feeling of complacency. Democracy needs everyone - no one staying home out of either emotional calculation. It needs action in response to facts.
Absolutely right!
Yesterday I didn't answer two calls on my landline that were IDed as polls.
I think you mean free advertising, Dave. Totally agree with what you say about polls. Those headlines are more free advertising.
Gigi, you are correct. Free
As Adlai Stevenson reportedly said, “I’ll need more than that.”
"WE are the only ones who can save us."
Absolutely correct. In Germany people are going to the streets to protest the AfD, a version of the current gop. They are making clear that the AfD endangers Germany and everyone living in Germany. Maybe we need such a movement hitting the streets all around the US.. .protests against gop "policies" like allowing migrants to die in the Rio Grande, banning books, banning health care, crashing out of NATO, supporting putin, orban, and other dictators, etc. No one should be silent about this political party. Being vocal and visible is necessary and significant for defining the situation the nation faces. Democracy is on the ballot. We are the ones who must defend the kind of nation we want for future generations
YES! Except it is 9° here, shoveled 4 feet of snow,...
This morning it was 7! Cant walk very long because Axel's (dog) feet get cold and I am NOT going to pick up a 50-55 lb dog & carry him back to the house.
So no long walks up by the woods and around the trails! Just take corn up to the 4-legged ones - big & little.
I know. I'm in West MI and the cold has been brutal.
Since tRump is still selling his big old lie that he won in 2020, I'm surprised he hasn't demanded that primaries be cancelled. He's the incumbent, don't you know? I hope he goes to prison, and we the people of democracy have to be prepared for all the craziness of the 10 months.
He's saying that. He's saying that everyone should now band together and go forward. And they have the "you better do this" part down too - there is a major fundraiser being held at Mar A Lardo on February 16, and the Trump campaign is telling the major Republican donors who supported other candidates and haven't committed to Trump that that's the do-by date "if you want to have any influence." Watch them all get on the Trump Train over the next four weeks.
As I keep saying, 2024 is the most important worst year of our lives.
I've always liked the concept that if trump is indeed the incumbent, the true president, the 22d Amendment prevents him from being elected again.
Well, darn. This is definitely not the news I hoped to hear today and especially from old Chris C. But, I do have heat in the house, energy, vim and enough vigor to stay in the fight until AFTER the bitter end (he will never concede and we know how that plays out), and the only way to win besides showing up, is to be armed with the FACTS, however unpleasant they may be. So, thank you, I guess, TC.
That’s why it’s vital to vote in the primaries. That’s when the electors are picked and it doesn’t matter a fig about the Nov election.
Dave Roos on The History Channel reminds us don the con won the White House last time on electoral votes even though Hillary had almost 3 million more popular votes. Those battleground states like Pennsylvania will save us or dump us into the abyss. https://www.history.com/news/presidents-electoral-college-popular-vote
No. What is chosen in the primaries are the DELEGATES TO THE PARTY CONVENTION who will vote for the candidate. The Electoral College Electors are who you are actually voting for in the November election - the electors pledged to the candidate you are voting for.
Thank you for clearing that up, TC. So tfg got 20 delegates to the national convention in the summer? And that is why it took until Jan 6 to formalize the vote.
No. TFG gets 20 votes to make him the official Republican nominee for President.
The electors voted for in the November election come together in each state on December 18 and formally vote. That vote is then forwarded to Congress, where it is officially accepted on January 6.
Yeah, I know - it's complicated. :-)
I actually tried to research it on the web but when I saw that another name for delegates was electors, I stopped because my head was throbbing so badly. I saw nothing like your excellent summary. Thank you!
Here I am, the crank growling in the far corner, but all of our efforts (and I'm always, always in the fight) may end up with historic down-ballot losses like those of the Battle of the Bulge unless 1) Joe withdraws and endorses Newsom, 2) Harris withdraws and Joe names MI Gov. Whitmer as running mate (more experience, less baggage, no cackling), 3) Trump drops dead (Merely being in a coma will not dissuade the evangelicals.), 4) Joe declines and the Dems run Hunter Biden who has high name recognition, a sketchy personal history, and youthful vigor ( After all, MTG showed us his balls.). Forgive the levity, but it's evident that many voters have conflated governance with show-biz and want the latter more than the former. So give it to 'em, and give it to 'em in the terms they clearly desire. Sigh.
Gonna have to disagree with you solidly Judith. The system doesn't work that way because it can't. And this Californian would never vote for Newsom for President.
As Rumsfeld said, you go to war with the army you have. So buckle down, winsocki. :-)
is it the Kimberly Guilfoyle thing? on this coast, I am unenlightened.
so let me know. I think Whitmer is the one going places. there was a New Yorker profile this past year, which I'll try to find a link for, although I suspect there's a paywall.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/07/24/how-gretchen-whitmer-made-michigan-a-democratic-stronghold
Thanks David - no paywall! Really interesting article. I think we will hear much more from and about Gov.Whitmer. She sounds like quite a gal (thats a compliment!!)
She'll be good in 2028.
exactly what I was thinking.
Sure do hope so!
what surprised me about her in the article was her steely political savvy and her realistic take on power and how to get it. and then, much more important, how to keep it. and oh yeah, the most important thing (the thing the scumbags seem to have forgotten completely), which is what you do with it.
and she seems very sophisticated in her ability to plan a long game. this article makes her sound very hard to beat.
is it irrelevant or somehow piggy to point out that she's very easy on the eyes? okay...I won't mention it.
Really - VERY intelligent, honest(how about that) AND very attractive.
I'm guessing she didnt have an easy path because of all 3 of those qualities.
More power to her
Thanks for the levity
That's all absolutely true. What we need to do is cut off the head of the snake and then deal with the snake itself. Not easy tasks. Have you seen the videos of the Trumpers in Iowa saying that they absolutely do want a dictatorship? The bit about the country needing a daddy to give us all a spanking?
It would be helpful if Trump would just drop dead for us, but I doubt that's going to happen. Even if trump loses this up coming election, we're going have trouble with his followers for a long time.
an important BIG piece in this week's "New Yorker," because of its author (Remnick himself), its placement in the issue, and its length. he clearly means it as an essential intervention in this situation we keep returning to in which it's become obvious that Netanyahu is a done deal and will do the kind of thing TFF does to avoid confronting that basic truth. except that TFF is a lot more popular here than that prick Bibi is THERE.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/01/22/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-gaza-hamas-war-hostages
I've never really doubted that trump will be the nominee. I do doubt that, particularly with the actions you urge, he will be the victor in the full election. So arguing about Iowa in terms of whether trump "won" amongst those who turned out doesn't get us far. Because out of the TOTAL registered Republican voters in Iowa, only 8 % voted for trump. We really have no idea what the other 92% will do.
The trouble with polling is that it measures those who WANT to talk to pollsters. Many of us don't answer our phone to calls like that. I just deleted without reading a text that claimed it was from a pollster. My email trash has dozens and dozens of "polls"--most if not all of which want to get me on a mailing list for donations.
I don't think I am alone. Just noted that Dave Dalton just said the same thing.
Same here - I dont answer if I dont recognize the name or number! Too many scammers out there.
By the way, who or what is Winsocki?
You probably need to be an elder to recognize that song from 1941. It was released four years before I was born, but it was popular enough that I can remember hearing it when I was young.
https://oldtimemusic.com/the-meaning-behind-the-song-buckle-down-winsocki-by-the-andrews-sisters/
Thank you Karen, fellow Auld Phart. :-)
Do you remember the 1960s era National Safety Council PSA "Buckle Up For Safety" that was based on the Winsocki melody? It was ubiquitous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WYWOc4L9_0
I know it well...my parents used to sing it. and my mother was good for a bunch of 'em...like the three little fishees, "Swinging on a Star," "Accentuate the Positive," "Chattanooga Choo-Choo," "A Tisket, A Tasket" ad nauseam. I take that back. it was more like ad infinitum. I still like hearing most of them. why wouldn't I? I was very little and my only connection to death was my rapidly fading, very nasty great-grandma. now, if I ask about somebody I knew in school, I have to be prepared to find out they're not around.
and it just occurred to me that the song was in "Buck Privates," which also featured a very young Ella Fitzgerald getting on a bus and singing "A Tisket, A-Tasket," which was a monster hit for her. I remember it from a Saturday matinee double feature. such matinees included 2 movies, at least one great cartoon (usually two, and recognized classics), a "short subject" (lots of factories making canned soup and coke bottles), and coming attractions. I loved coming in to see a movie in the middle and staying to see the whole thing over so I could figure out how the stories worked, and very consciously. in college, there were TRIPLE features all over town where you'd get half-stoned by the time you found a seat
and still, I've never finished a screenplay. next life perhaps. if there are still movies. if there is still human activity of any kind...
I remember the three little fishees (dont remember the words) do you remember "mares eat oats & does eat oats & little lambs eat ivy"? I think the rest was something like "and you can eat ivy too", but not sure. (maybe its a NY thing)
"Mairzey Dotes"...that was the other one. little lambs eat ivy/A kid'll eat ivy too/Wouldn't you?"
I used to know the whole thing, but I'm lost after that.
I assume it was a hit single. a 78.
but it's all easy to google and I'm pretty sure they're all YouTube videos.
Yes - but I always thought of it as MARES eat oats (the horse thing!)
And I dont remember the rest either - as Suessi says now it will stick in my brain. But then, David thats so much better than the orange blob sticking there right????
A kiddle eat ivy too wouldn't you?
This will be stuck in my brain for the rest of the night.
YESSS Could not remember that part! Loved that little ditty - used to sing it when I was very young! Thanks so much - and yes the first part has been stuck in mine because I couldnt remember the last line!
Thanks Suessi
I remember it well!