SO - WHAT HAPPENED?

It's the morning after what was supposed to be the Red Wave, and a lot of the country is pretty dry; it looks more like a very small toxic spill. A tsunami was forecast, but the story so far is that Democrats have dramatically over-performed against the fundamentals in a midterm election where inflation really is a problem and they're the party in power at the federal level. This election is a stunning event that should force a reckoning across both parties about old assumptions regarding voting patterns, the choice of candidates, and messaging.

Perhaps the over-educated, under-intelligent, otherwise unemployables of the political press and the pundit class should engage in some introspection about why so many could have gotten so much so wrong. (I personally sent snarky comments to the Puck political prognosticators, whose arrogant knowitallism really rubbed me the wrong way the past two months.)

Republicans are having the worst midterm performance against a first-term president since the election of 1934. The night has been a disaster for them.

In military history terms, November 2020 can be compared to Dunkirk 80 years earlier. The pro-democracy forces escaped a devastating defeat by denying Trump a second term.

But if the election of 2020 was analogous to Dunkirk, 2022 is perhaps like the North African campaign of 1942, with the victory at El Alamein and Operation Torch, which happened exactly 80 years before election day 2022.

North Africa was an important if not decisive victory, a boost to allied morale and a harbinger of successes to come. Historians now say that the North African campaign laid the groundwork for D-Day two years further on. Which raises the question: If 2020 was Dunkirk, and 2022 is North Africa - will 2024 be D-Day? (Remember, the eleven months after D-Day saw the heaviest losses of the war, more than all the years before, to get to final victory.)

I’ll also go with another analogy: yesterday was like the Naval Battle of Guadalcanal, fought 80 years ago this weekend. The good guys went All In, suffered some grievous defeats, but in the end, the enemy was Stopped. After Novembr 15, 1942, America never looked back in the Pacific War. It was a battle so closely fought no one was sure at first who won. It only showed as the victory it was two weeks later when Admiral Yamamoto informed the Supreme War Council that the Imperial Navy could no longer support the Imperial Army on Guadalcanal. (More on this this weekend)

Here is a big point: Yesterday, the Future spoke up. Young American voters saved democracy. They stood up for the freedom to choose our leaders, the freedom to control our bodies, the freedom to thrive on a planet that thrives in turn. I am far more optimistic than I was.

The biggest and best news is that Trump had a spectacularly bad night. His candidates underperformed across the country and the GOP was reminded that he is an electoral ships’ anchor. A big one.

The Trump-Effect cost the Governor’s races in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maryland… just for starters. Arizona’s race is still too close to call, but a lot of people appear to have been seriously spooked by the Bimbette of Phoenix, to the point they concluded “boring is good!” and voted for Hobbs regardless of her campaign.

The election deniers running for Secretary of State all lost. Bigly.

Trump is getting roasted by conservatives for his near-total failure in endorsements leading to victories.

Pizzagate conspiratorial fantasist Mike Czernovich tweeted: “Trump as a kingmaker or a viable 2024 candidate is over as of tonight.”

Even Ben Shapiro sees it. “Trump picked bad candidates, spent almost no money on his hand-picked candidates, and then proceeded to crap on the Republicans who lost and didn’t sufficiently bend the knee. This will have 2024 impact.”

Trump himself demonstrated he still refuses to learn anything about anything: “If Republicans win tonight - I deserve all the credit. If they lose - I’m not to blame.”

This is about as rough a night as one could imagine for Donald Trump.

The candidates he forced on the GOP did poorly. Meanwhile Ron DeSantis won a huge victory, did great in South Florida, with Hispanic voters, etc. His personal rewrite of the redistricting map netted Republican takeovers of five Democratic House seats and set whatever GOP victory may happen there. People are predicting governors like DeSantis, Youngkin, Abbott will argue that it’s time to move past Donald Trump. Notably, it’s move past Trump, not Trumpism.

I doubt Trump is receptive to this new plan. I also doubt there will be a Big Announcement next Monday.

Looking at the rest:

Control of the upper chamber still hangs in the balance. Everything remains in play: a Democratic majority, a GOP majority, a 50-50 tie. Cortez Masto’s fate, which will likely not be known until Friday at the earliest, will tell us whether Warnock’s runoff on December 6 against Herschel Walker will be for control of the senate or confirmation of the Democratic majority.

In the most likely scenario, the best outcome for Democrats is a tie, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaking vote. Just like now. Nothing will have changed after more than a billion dollars spent on the Senate campaigns.

Control of the lower chamber still technically hangs in the balance, but the most likely outcome seems to be a small, highly unmanageable, flaming shitshow of a GOP majority whose members jump around the cage throwing their feces through the bars at the watching crowd. That would test the leadership skills of the greatest House speakers who ever lived. Kevin McCarthy will not be one of them. He has neither the political chops, the intellectual firepower, nor the good graces to lead effectively. It will be an utter and total mess with a mix of far right firebrands demanding ideological purity and very vulnerable new incumbents like the potential victors in New York trying to avoid one-term disaster.

New York State is stunning. The best that can be said is what is happening is the Democrats’ own fault, since their overly-aggressive gerrymandered redistricting got shot down in court and the court-mandated redisctricting map really threw them for a loop. Had they settled for four instead of five pickups, this likely wouldn’t have happened. Now four Democratic seats - and control of the House - is at play because of this.

There is still a possibility of Democrats maintaining control of the House. That depends on the outcome in California of House races for seats won by Republicans in 2020 in districts won by Biden, whose results will not be known before the end of November, due to the generous rules regarding return of mail ballots in the state.

Bright news includes Professional Jovenile Delinquent and Statutory Rape Enthusiast Lauren Boebert trailing in her first re-election bid by 3,500 votes with 90% reporting.

The only advice here is, Stand Fast.

Wave? What Wave? It’s even more of a mixed picture when you get to state-level races. Democrats pulled off some major wins in governor’s races, wresting state legislative control away from the GOP in some states, and kept Big Lie adherents from overseeing elections.

The really great news is Michigan. Matt Deperno, Republican candidate for attorney general in Michigan, has conceded to Dana Nessel. This follows the victory of Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. Also control of both chambers of legislature. Control of the State Supreme Court. And the victory of the abortion protection amendment striking down the old law.

Arizona has only counted 67% of the vote, so a lot still to be determined there. Mark Kelly looks likely to hang on against Blake Masters but the margin is narrowing. Kelly leads by 106,000 votes.

Katie Hobbs leads Kari Lake, the scariest of all the major candidates, by 30,000 votes. Lots of people decided at the last minute that “Boring! Boring is good! I like borning!

Secretary of State: Big Lie election denier Mark Finchem is trailing by 101,000 votes.

Filed under Will They Learn Now? Ted Budd, Trump embracing, abortion ban supporting election denier who successfully downplayed his extremism beat Democrat Cheri Beasley, a longtime former justice on the state Supreme Court. The race largely flew under the radar. Missing the flashy candidates other battleground races boast.

The sad thing to me here is, if Democrats had poured the resources into Beasley’s campaign they poured into Val Demings’ losing campaign, Beasley might be on her way to being the only African-American female Senator.

Democrats really need to look at Florida as Hopeless for statewide races and stop wasting resources there. At least until DeSantis gets his ass whipped one way or the other in 2024, and likely not then.

This mid-term was not only the biggest mid-term in history in terms of participation, it equaled 2020, which was the biggest presidential election in history in terms of participation. Both of which prove that the more people participate, the better the outcome.

As to closing remarks, I believe I will allow Mr. Ray Charles to express my heartfelt beliefs, since he does so better than I can.

Ray Charles

Remember: the 2024 campaign begins on Monday. There will be lots of fine messes to look at over the next two years.

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