Recently on a substack (can't remember which) the cover was blown on Nate Silver's 538 (which he left last year to form his own substack called Silver Bulletin) for several reasons: it was owned by a right winger (can't remember who - Peter Thiel?), he was dumping all sorts of polls together, many of which were provided by right wing gro…
Recently on a substack (can't remember which) the cover was blown on Nate Silver's 538 (which he left last year to form his own substack called Silver Bulletin) for several reasons: it was owned by a right winger (can't remember who - Peter Thiel?), he was dumping all sorts of polls together, many of which were provided by right wing groups and which had used "messy" polling, and which a great number of these polls included a percentage of right wingers who far exceeded the actual percentage in the US population. So, data from his aggregated "polls" was actually just a bunch of garbage, representing the "base" more than anything else. Nevertheless, his stuff finds its way into corporate media (of course) where it gets reported as "fact." That's why I give polls little credence, as you do. It's a business, and like corporate media, it's all about profit, nothing else.
Recently on a substack (can't remember which) the cover was blown on Nate Silver's 538 (which he left last year to form his own substack called Silver Bulletin) for several reasons: it was owned by a right winger (can't remember who - Peter Thiel?), he was dumping all sorts of polls together, many of which were provided by right wing groups and which had used "messy" polling, and which a great number of these polls included a percentage of right wingers who far exceeded the actual percentage in the US population. So, data from his aggregated "polls" was actually just a bunch of garbage, representing the "base" more than anything else. Nevertheless, his stuff finds its way into corporate media (of course) where it gets reported as "fact." That's why I give polls little credence, as you do. It's a business, and like corporate media, it's all about profit, nothing else.
I didn’t know that about Silver, but it makes sense.