“It is worse than a crime, it is a mistake.“ - Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord. I may not have been writing about Ukraine lately, but I follow the RUSI updates and the Financial Times reports regularly. I highly recommend those to you. The RUSI (royal United Services Institute) is free.
“At this point, Putin and Russia stand exposed as the failures they are. If the West will continue to stand firm, this criminal mistake will be resolved and the guilty parties will pay.”
It hasn't been much noted, but the initial Russian gambit of using special forces to seize an airfield and then fly in reinforcements echoed the German attack on Crete, except the German attack worked. The Ukrainian counter-attack, presumably by regulars, wiped out the Russian special forces. This would seem to knock a big hole in the legend of special forces prevalent in modern culture. Commando units historically have been successful only against small targets (Bin Laden house, lightly guarded by military standards, being a good example). Up against a target the enemy must defend, like a key airfield, the results have been poor. The German paratroopers and their Ju-52 delivered regular reiniforcements won out against a confused British response on Crete, but losses were so heavy that they never made another major airborne attack in the rest of the war.
Interesting and I bow to your expertise. While I appreciate your hopeful take on this all I see in my head are those maps that have the whole eastern side of Ukraine in blood red flowing down into Crimea-- as if the Russians are already in possession!! It is amazing and unbelievable how the Ukrainians can even keep going. TY, TC ( great to hear your actual voice on that interesting interview you shared!)
Ukrainians also believe they are winning. So many have returned home. My wife is going back on Wednesday for three months to close down the house for winter or find friends to rent it for the utilities. She is also going to bring our German Shepherd back if at all possible.
Russia is predicted to attack Mykolaiv and Krivii Rih beginning August 6, likely to preempt a Ukrainian counter attack against Kherson. Krivii Rih is only 75 km from us. If things get hot, she will grab the dog and go west. Her son who is in the local Territorial Defense Force is adamantly opposed to her return but is not at liberty to say why. So I worry about both of them.
A few hundred 300 km range missiles would sure mess things up in a hurry. I understand they are "on their way" but when they get there is a question.
Thanks so much for this analysis. It sounds much like what I have read and heard from Timothy Snyder. I saw a terrific interview of Prof. Snyder with Mikhail Zygar on Youtube the other day. The title of the interview is: "Russia is a Fascist State". I think you and others would likely appreciate the interview and the analysis Prof Snyder brings. He too believes Putin is at the end and that Russia is losing this war. A really excellent discussion. Much can happen of course. The murders of Ukrainian POW's and the stating that the Azov regiment (which according to WW2 history of the region did ally with Germany for a time against Stalin) is a "terrorist organization and not due any special treatment" or words essentially to that effect, probably means the killing was deliberate. How strange that no Russians who were supposed to be guarding these prisoners were injured in any way. Murder pure and simple. Plus the International Red Cross and the UN had not been given any access to these soldiers since early June according to reports in The Guardian. Patience and commitment for as long as it takes is what is needed from the world's democracies. Let's hope we will not flag in our resolve.
Well done TC. God grant that our politicians have the will to stand firm. The only acceptable end point is all Russians out of Ukraine and the borders restored to pre-2014.
Thank You, TC. As a reminder on our Michigan primary election day, I am going to share your article. Ukraine is still fighting the good fight. To win it they need our committed support. To continue our committed support, we must preserve (reclaim?) our own democracy. Proudly wearing my "I Voted!" Sticker!
Your reference to Vietnam rings so true. Forget political philosophies. Remember the motivation of protecting yourself from foreign invaders. Think Afghanistan. Think Iraq. Think India. Think South Africa. Mexico...
You are so right. With enough of our support, Ukraine will oust the butchers.
wow, Tom. I like it when you get riled up, but the sober leavening is even better. it's certainly been occurring to me that our public's attention (or at least the attention of the people I see regularly) seems to be less than it was. and it's occurred to me that this is not a good thing. it's that old (supposedly) Chinese thing about "interesting times." and yeah, they suck.
“At this point, Putin and Russia stand exposed as the failures they are. If the West will continue to stand firm, this criminal mistake will be resolved and the guilty parties will pay.”
From your pen to the Force’s ears!
It hasn't been much noted, but the initial Russian gambit of using special forces to seize an airfield and then fly in reinforcements echoed the German attack on Crete, except the German attack worked. The Ukrainian counter-attack, presumably by regulars, wiped out the Russian special forces. This would seem to knock a big hole in the legend of special forces prevalent in modern culture. Commando units historically have been successful only against small targets (Bin Laden house, lightly guarded by military standards, being a good example). Up against a target the enemy must defend, like a key airfield, the results have been poor. The German paratroopers and their Ju-52 delivered regular reiniforcements won out against a confused British response on Crete, but losses were so heavy that they never made another major airborne attack in the rest of the war.
What a helpful analysis, TC. Thanks. Your grounding in military history shows.
Interesting and I bow to your expertise. While I appreciate your hopeful take on this all I see in my head are those maps that have the whole eastern side of Ukraine in blood red flowing down into Crimea-- as if the Russians are already in possession!! It is amazing and unbelievable how the Ukrainians can even keep going. TY, TC ( great to hear your actual voice on that interesting interview you shared!)
Ukrainians also believe they are winning. So many have returned home. My wife is going back on Wednesday for three months to close down the house for winter or find friends to rent it for the utilities. She is also going to bring our German Shepherd back if at all possible.
Russia is predicted to attack Mykolaiv and Krivii Rih beginning August 6, likely to preempt a Ukrainian counter attack against Kherson. Krivii Rih is only 75 km from us. If things get hot, she will grab the dog and go west. Her son who is in the local Territorial Defense Force is adamantly opposed to her return but is not at liberty to say why. So I worry about both of them.
A few hundred 300 km range missiles would sure mess things up in a hurry. I understand they are "on their way" but when they get there is a question.
Thanks so much for this analysis. It sounds much like what I have read and heard from Timothy Snyder. I saw a terrific interview of Prof. Snyder with Mikhail Zygar on Youtube the other day. The title of the interview is: "Russia is a Fascist State". I think you and others would likely appreciate the interview and the analysis Prof Snyder brings. He too believes Putin is at the end and that Russia is losing this war. A really excellent discussion. Much can happen of course. The murders of Ukrainian POW's and the stating that the Azov regiment (which according to WW2 history of the region did ally with Germany for a time against Stalin) is a "terrorist organization and not due any special treatment" or words essentially to that effect, probably means the killing was deliberate. How strange that no Russians who were supposed to be guarding these prisoners were injured in any way. Murder pure and simple. Plus the International Red Cross and the UN had not been given any access to these soldiers since early June according to reports in The Guardian. Patience and commitment for as long as it takes is what is needed from the world's democracies. Let's hope we will not flag in our resolve.
Well done TC. God grant that our politicians have the will to stand firm. The only acceptable end point is all Russians out of Ukraine and the borders restored to pre-2014.
Stellar, TC. Thanks, as always.
Thank You, TC. As a reminder on our Michigan primary election day, I am going to share your article. Ukraine is still fighting the good fight. To win it they need our committed support. To continue our committed support, we must preserve (reclaim?) our own democracy. Proudly wearing my "I Voted!" Sticker!
I don’t think Putin will ever give up. Even with his brain worm and cancer he knows he is dying and that will be his face saving way out
Your reference to Vietnam rings so true. Forget political philosophies. Remember the motivation of protecting yourself from foreign invaders. Think Afghanistan. Think Iraq. Think India. Think South Africa. Mexico...
You are so right. With enough of our support, Ukraine will oust the butchers.
And Putin will be ousted. Just not soon enough...
wow, Tom. I like it when you get riled up, but the sober leavening is even better. it's certainly been occurring to me that our public's attention (or at least the attention of the people I see regularly) seems to be less than it was. and it's occurred to me that this is not a good thing. it's that old (supposedly) Chinese thing about "interesting times." and yeah, they suck.