RECENT POLLS ARE GROUNDS FOR OPTIMISM

The following is Josh Marshall’s Members-Only Analysis f or TPM Members regarding the recent poll results:

We have a cluster of new national polls out today. And they continue to show a bumpy and uneven but still clear movement in Joe Biden’s direction. Polls are complicated these days because there are so many different ones and more importantly the quality and reliability of those polls vary greatly. So we have five polls out since the 25th. And those are Marist (Biden+2); Data for Progress (Biden +1), Big Village (Biden +2); Morning Consult (Biden +2) and Trafalgar (Trump +3).

Trafalgar is notorious garbage. Of this mix the one with the highest reputation for quality (in my mind) is Marist. But the others are all in the category of ones I take seriously, with maybe a bit of a question mark around Data for Progress. A methodological note: Pollsters often release multiple “screens”: adults, registered voters, likely voters. I focus on the tightest screen. And where available I look at the head to head to result. It’s complicated to say whether the head to head is the “better” number, though I think in most cases it is. But at least at this stage of the campaign it’s a more apples to apples look at the race.

What do these polls mean? Well, whatever they mean is better than what the ones three months ago meant. More seriously and specifically, I don’t take them to mean Biden is ahead and certainly not that he’s going to win. What I take them to mean is that there’s some slow but real movement in Biden’s direction. My theory of the case (and that of many others) has long been that Trump has benefited greatly from the fact that we haven’t been in a general election context until the last few weeks. So the polls have really been about Biden and how you think he’s doing, with Trump being the other guy if you’re not wild about Biden. That’s not a great question for Biden since, as we discussed a couple weeks ago, we live in the Everything Sucks Era. As we move into a general election context, where it’s a choice between the two candidates, with an equal focus on both, Biden should start doing better. That’s the theory. And in fact these polls do show him starting to do better.

That’s all I draw from them these polls, a minimal interpretation. If you’re a Biden supporter these polls show the slow movement in Biden’s direction you want and increasingly need. You’re now entitled to tell your Downer Dave nephew that the latest polls actually show Biden back in a very slight lead. And you can own your Trumper cousin on Facebook that Trump’s winter lead seems to be going poof. But between us let’s just call it modest movement in the right direction which is consistent with or at least isn’t contradicting the best theory of the case.

We’ve been seeing consumer sentiment shifting in a positive direction over recent months. That’s probably playing some role too. But again, minimal interpretation. You want to see some movement in Biden’s direction and at least for now we pretty clearly are.

Showing a slightly different but not necessarily inconsistent picture is a new Journal poll out today showing Trump leading Biden in 6 of 7 swing states with margins ranging from 3 to 6 points. I didn’t include this number above because there’s no national number. So it’s not an apples to apples comparison. There was another similar poll a week ago from Bloomberg. That one showed Trump ahead in 4 of 7 swing states but with a move in Biden’s direction in 6 of the 7 states. One notable thing in this latter poll is that the most significant moves were in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And Wisconsin had the best result for Biden in that generally gloomier Journal poll. So keep an eye on Wisconsin.

Put it all together and I’d say it’s what discussed above: modest movement in Biden’s direction. And for right now, I’ll take it.

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