Polls released over the weekend and this morning, have bad news that cannot be ignored. They start with the one over the weekend from the Wall Street Journal that showed President Biden’s approval rating at 37 percent, and Trump winning election over the president by 4 points, while Trump leads Biden on inflation, crime, border security, and the war in Gaza—and Trump outruns the president on the economy by a devastating 18 points with only 30 holding positive view of “Bidenomics.” This morning, two polls from CNN showed Biden losing to Trump by four points in Georgia and 10 points in Michigan (Note: not even the Trump campaign thinks Biden would ever lose Michigan by that much). The poll from Emerson College has Biden losing to Trump by four—and by even more with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the mix. Worst of is this: A Monmouth poll showed Trump’s 2020 supporters are more motivated to stick with him next year than Biden’s supporters are.
Here's the one and only rule of politics, courtesy of a terrific politician in Nevada named Richard Bryan. He said, "There are two ways to run for office: unopposed or scared."
Pol Potbelly really is virtually unopposed in the republican race. Biden may be unopposed NOW for the Democratic nomination, but always, always, always run scared.
And remember: at this point in 2011, Mitt Rmoney was guaranteed to be the next president.
Jessica HAS the connections, as I have said on Robert's posts. If you think there is nothing you can do, Jessica will get you connected to at least three that you can be effective at.
While I appreciate your analysis, I for one will not be panicking or even reading about polls. Too many are deliberately skewed, badly misinterpreted by media and have too few respondents. Plus, it's way too early to accurately predict anything. All I need to know is who Democrats have chosen as their candidates for offices at all levels and I will vote the party line. This will be the 3rd election where I have utilized this strategy, after coming to hate all that the Rs stand for and not trusting any of them for anything.
No confusion in my mind, but so many are cult crazy, and the Republican hierarchy is bat-Schitt nuts. An election that Jimmy Carter should be monitoring.
I am in total agreement with you.l I hold zero creedence in these polls. They are a scare tactic and I will not be made to think I am defeated. There is much work to be done and We The People will get the job done. To hell with the polls!
The polls suck, without a doubt, but the really bad news is that Trump is being treated in the press as a legitimate candidate for POTUS, instead of the vile criminal that he is. That's because the mainstream media of our oligarchy pretending to be a democracy, portrays it that way. One of the functions of the "Fourth Estate" is to defend the Constitution and promote the values of democracy, a sacred duty now usurped by the lures of yellow journalism and quick profits. That role has now been delegated to the brave journalists of integrity holding forth on Substack. The point is Trump and his insurrectionist minions should have been arrested and prosecuted long ago, but the "system" has become captive to the whims of the wealthy media owners who relish the drama of the so called electoral process and the distraction it provides, deflecting attention from their nefarious, neoliberal, kleptocratic endeavors.
Somebody needs to do a poll asking why Americans put up with this horseshit as if Trump were some divine being insulated from the rule of law. If one of us "ordinary" folks did what Trump and his gaggle of fascists did in and around January 6 two years ago, we'd be in jail right now. It looks like that oath I swore to defend the Constitution back in 1966 does in fact have an expiration date, soon to be determined if the MAGA cretins holding the nation hostage with their fascist demands succeed in overthrowing res republic. These people are known insurrectionists, so why are they still holding offices in the congress of the United States, not to mention their obstructive presences in the state legislative bodies of this country? The fact that half the members of the congress and the majority of justices on the Supreme Court are traitors, including many who have publicly announced their fealty to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and embraced the ideas of Hungary's strongman Viktor Orbán, makes the whole political process going on right now patently absurd.
Thanks for all of this TC. The polls do sharpen things in terms of getting going even though they are not predictive. Appreciate your 'dialogue" with Robert Hubbell whom I read along with you, HCR, and a few others. Your point about getting involved NOW is where the urgency is. Whoever the candidate is, Democrats need to engage. Thank you for that sharp elbow nudge!! Time to get back to work. I really got engaged in the Obama campaigns on the local level; that was a "cause". Time to get on the "cause" again (but at 86, I do have less energy; more the postcard writing kind....not door hangers, etc.)
Thanks for the wakeup call, TC. It's definitely time to get moving. No effort is too small. An important thing is to continue sharing in these communities, yours, Robert's, Joyce's, Jessica's, Heather's, and so many others - to encourage and hold each other up, when we inevitably falter. When things look bleak, these communities will provide a place to go for respite, and a renewed inspiration. We can't put our heads in the sand, but let's do everything we can to cheer for every little thing that's done -- "I mailed 10 postcards!" "HOORAY - GOOD FOR YOU!" We all need that encouragement and comfort.
Yes Tom. Exactly The time is now for us to reach out to those we can with clear, pursuasive words that at least supporting GOTV organizations is always necessary, in spite of any polls. Jessica Craven wil give you lists. We probably all have lists to share. Maybe on Robert's next Open Weekend would be a good place to start. Thoughts??
I think Rosenberg's statement is more on the lines of "to do this we have to get our act together, go for it," rather than an acquiescence the the gloom of a poll. Hubbell tells us to not be let down by polls because of their many weaknesses, but he never gives up on the idea that we have to keep working.
No matter how much a current Dem is "disaffected by Biden" I very much doubt that in an election none would actually VOTE for trump. Biden is in the current position of an incumbent being blamed for everything including your bad hair day. That will work itself out.
At the risk of getting spanked again, Tom, I predict even worse numbers for Joe going forward. That a criminal is beating him on one end of the polls and a deeply disturbed RFK, Jr. is gaining on him on the other bodes very, very ill. Yes, we need vigor in the campaign, but Joe doesn't have it, and Kamala has not had enough opportunities to demonstrate her skills and judgment. Don't know how such corrections can be made in under a year. Americans always like the new and novel shiny things, so the Dems need to give it to them. Pass that baton, Joe. (Hell, Ukraine elected a comedian and he's been an admirable leader. He emerged "from the people.")
I have canvassed for Dems since 2000, but will probably be a poll worker this year (to keep an eye on the those on the right keeping an eye on the polls) because I'm almost Joe's age and no longer have the energy to outrun the dogs I encountered in canvassing.
If it was possible to put things together like that, I'd say yes. But presidential campaigns don't start with a snap of the fingers; what we'd get doing that would be a worse result. We're stuck, like it or not, so what we can do is what I suggested here and what Robert puts up every night.
Ross Douthat thinks we're (Democrats) in trouble because of too much immigration, and that we need to do something about that. Here's his article. There should be no paywall, but I won't swear to it.
"Asylum is the biggest issue in these immigration talks: Many of the people crossing the border illegally actually want to be caught by border patrols so they can request asylum. It’s really hard to get asylum granted. But immigration experts I’ve talked to say that many migrants find a way to stay anyway: They ask for asylum and settle into the country while they wait for a court date that might be years away, and then few are deported, even if their asylum request is denied.
Republicans want to put major restrictions on this process. Some have suggested wider use of ankle monitoring — including for children migrants.
What this means politically: Giving Republicans some of what they want at the border wouldn’t be all bad for Biden. The border has been a weak spot for him pretty much since he got into office. Polls consistently show that a majority of Americans don’t approve of how he’s handling it. (One reason experts say migrants are coming in such high numbers: Fairly or not, they think a Biden administration is more open to immigration than the Trump administration was.)
“Honestly, if I were the president,” McConnell told reporters recently, “looking at my numbers on this, I’d want to do something about it.”
Mass immigration is big biz' way of keeping wages down.
The labor participation rate--the percentage of working age Americans who are working or looking for jobs, is now only about 67%. Employers looking for workers need to raise wages.
This is not a criticism of immigrants. They are good people. It IS a criticism of employers, the Koch organization, big biz, etc., who work to keep wages down, yet pay themselves hundreds of times what they pay workers.
Absolutely on target, David H. The people who hire "illegal immigrants" never suffer from breaking the law. Only the immigrants, so the high end restaurants, meat packers, and everyone in between can keep getting low wage workers. It is an insidious system and ought to be morally outrageous and legally "out". My two cents worth.......
But what I am very worried about is the possibility that Biden will lose, in part because people don't like major change, including seeing their towns become Spanish speaking. As a 12 year old, I lived in Paris for a year. I'd always been interested in foreigners at home. I'd go up to them in Harvard square, and ask them where they were from, and I didn't understand why the Parisians never spoke to me. Years later, I came to understand it. Paris was flooded with Americans. Our border towns are in the same situation, and it's not helping the Democratic Party, which encourages the migration.
Like the Irish with the "dirty, garlic-smelling, superstitious Italians":---who practiced their religion in the streets with processions (cf. Robert Orsi, The Madonna of 115th Street; popular religion/people's religion at its best.) Communities get really dislocated, etc. until they get through the process---which seems to be harder or more contentious now---but the historian in me says, only it only seems less so in the past .....
Here's the one and only rule of politics, courtesy of a terrific politician in Nevada named Richard Bryan. He said, "There are two ways to run for office: unopposed or scared."
Pol Potbelly really is virtually unopposed in the republican race. Biden may be unopposed NOW for the Democratic nomination, but always, always, always run scared.
And remember: at this point in 2011, Mitt Rmoney was guaranteed to be the next president.
As Willie Brown put it, run like you're ten points down regardless of any polls, until the real polls close, then celebrate.
Love Pol Potbelly. Rupert, Elon, and their ilk have changed this race like none other in history. Goebbels could not have done better.
Thanks. I have come up with one good one in my life, and that was it.
A keeper for all of us.
Richard Bryan, yup.
Not one step back! More it forward! Robert Hubbell, Jessica Craven and other Substacks have excellent contact links on how to get
involved in this campaign and
move it!
Not one step back! There's too much at stake.
Thank you Tom.
Jessica HAS the connections, as I have said on Robert's posts. If you think there is nothing you can do, Jessica will get you connected to at least three that you can be effective at.
While I appreciate your analysis, I for one will not be panicking or even reading about polls. Too many are deliberately skewed, badly misinterpreted by media and have too few respondents. Plus, it's way too early to accurately predict anything. All I need to know is who Democrats have chosen as their candidates for offices at all levels and I will vote the party line. This will be the 3rd election where I have utilized this strategy, after coming to hate all that the Rs stand for and not trusting any of them for anything.
No confusion in my mind, but so many are cult crazy, and the Republican hierarchy is bat-Schitt nuts. An election that Jimmy Carter should be monitoring.
I am in total agreement with you.l I hold zero creedence in these polls. They are a scare tactic and I will not be made to think I am defeated. There is much work to be done and We The People will get the job done. To hell with the polls!
The polls suck, without a doubt, but the really bad news is that Trump is being treated in the press as a legitimate candidate for POTUS, instead of the vile criminal that he is. That's because the mainstream media of our oligarchy pretending to be a democracy, portrays it that way. One of the functions of the "Fourth Estate" is to defend the Constitution and promote the values of democracy, a sacred duty now usurped by the lures of yellow journalism and quick profits. That role has now been delegated to the brave journalists of integrity holding forth on Substack. The point is Trump and his insurrectionist minions should have been arrested and prosecuted long ago, but the "system" has become captive to the whims of the wealthy media owners who relish the drama of the so called electoral process and the distraction it provides, deflecting attention from their nefarious, neoliberal, kleptocratic endeavors.
Somebody needs to do a poll asking why Americans put up with this horseshit as if Trump were some divine being insulated from the rule of law. If one of us "ordinary" folks did what Trump and his gaggle of fascists did in and around January 6 two years ago, we'd be in jail right now. It looks like that oath I swore to defend the Constitution back in 1966 does in fact have an expiration date, soon to be determined if the MAGA cretins holding the nation hostage with their fascist demands succeed in overthrowing res republic. These people are known insurrectionists, so why are they still holding offices in the congress of the United States, not to mention their obstructive presences in the state legislative bodies of this country? The fact that half the members of the congress and the majority of justices on the Supreme Court are traitors, including many who have publicly announced their fealty to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and embraced the ideas of Hungary's strongman Viktor Orbán, makes the whole political process going on right now patently absurd.
Thanks for all of this TC. The polls do sharpen things in terms of getting going even though they are not predictive. Appreciate your 'dialogue" with Robert Hubbell whom I read along with you, HCR, and a few others. Your point about getting involved NOW is where the urgency is. Whoever the candidate is, Democrats need to engage. Thank you for that sharp elbow nudge!! Time to get back to work. I really got engaged in the Obama campaigns on the local level; that was a "cause". Time to get on the "cause" again (but at 86, I do have less energy; more the postcard writing kind....not door hangers, etc.)
Thanks for the wakeup call, TC. It's definitely time to get moving. No effort is too small. An important thing is to continue sharing in these communities, yours, Robert's, Joyce's, Jessica's, Heather's, and so many others - to encourage and hold each other up, when we inevitably falter. When things look bleak, these communities will provide a place to go for respite, and a renewed inspiration. We can't put our heads in the sand, but let's do everything we can to cheer for every little thing that's done -- "I mailed 10 postcards!" "HOORAY - GOOD FOR YOU!" We all need that encouragement and comfort.
Positive Thinking and Constant Vigilance!!
Thank you for providing that place for us.
Yes Tom. Exactly The time is now for us to reach out to those we can with clear, pursuasive words that at least supporting GOTV organizations is always necessary, in spite of any polls. Jessica Craven wil give you lists. We probably all have lists to share. Maybe on Robert's next Open Weekend would be a good place to start. Thoughts??
I think Rosenberg's statement is more on the lines of "to do this we have to get our act together, go for it," rather than an acquiescence the the gloom of a poll. Hubbell tells us to not be let down by polls because of their many weaknesses, but he never gives up on the idea that we have to keep working.
No matter how much a current Dem is "disaffected by Biden" I very much doubt that in an election none would actually VOTE for trump. Biden is in the current position of an incumbent being blamed for everything including your bad hair day. That will work itself out.
At the risk of getting spanked again, Tom, I predict even worse numbers for Joe going forward. That a criminal is beating him on one end of the polls and a deeply disturbed RFK, Jr. is gaining on him on the other bodes very, very ill. Yes, we need vigor in the campaign, but Joe doesn't have it, and Kamala has not had enough opportunities to demonstrate her skills and judgment. Don't know how such corrections can be made in under a year. Americans always like the new and novel shiny things, so the Dems need to give it to them. Pass that baton, Joe. (Hell, Ukraine elected a comedian and he's been an admirable leader. He emerged "from the people.")
I have canvassed for Dems since 2000, but will probably be a poll worker this year (to keep an eye on the those on the right keeping an eye on the polls) because I'm almost Joe's age and no longer have the energy to outrun the dogs I encountered in canvassing.
If it was possible to put things together like that, I'd say yes. But presidential campaigns don't start with a snap of the fingers; what we'd get doing that would be a worse result. We're stuck, like it or not, so what we can do is what I suggested here and what Robert puts up every night.
Ross Douthat thinks we're (Democrats) in trouble because of too much immigration, and that we need to do something about that. Here's his article. There should be no paywall, but I won't swear to it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/opinion/joe-biden-immigration.html
There's more along these lines from the WaPo:
"Asylum is the biggest issue in these immigration talks: Many of the people crossing the border illegally actually want to be caught by border patrols so they can request asylum. It’s really hard to get asylum granted. But immigration experts I’ve talked to say that many migrants find a way to stay anyway: They ask for asylum and settle into the country while they wait for a court date that might be years away, and then few are deported, even if their asylum request is denied.
Republicans want to put major restrictions on this process. Some have suggested wider use of ankle monitoring — including for children migrants.
What this means politically: Giving Republicans some of what they want at the border wouldn’t be all bad for Biden. The border has been a weak spot for him pretty much since he got into office. Polls consistently show that a majority of Americans don’t approve of how he’s handling it. (One reason experts say migrants are coming in such high numbers: Fairly or not, they think a Biden administration is more open to immigration than the Trump administration was.)
“Honestly, if I were the president,” McConnell told reporters recently, “looking at my numbers on this, I’d want to do something about it.”
https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=5969f94b9bbc0f6d71c876ed&s=657790d4b900b84386c6f10d&linknum=2&linktot=50&linknum=2&linktot=50
Immigrants are needed to fill jobs. They work, pay taxes and stay out of trouble.
In 1980, meat packers were Black. They were earning middle class wages, thanks to decades of organizing.
By that decades end, meat packers were mostly immigrants, toiling under atrocious conditions, for barely above minimum wage.
That change was repeated in other trades and jobs over the last 40 years, which is why workers' wages barely budged.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements.html
Mass immigration is big biz' way of keeping wages down.
The labor participation rate--the percentage of working age Americans who are working or looking for jobs, is now only about 67%. Employers looking for workers need to raise wages.
This is not a criticism of immigrants. They are good people. It IS a criticism of employers, the Koch organization, big biz, etc., who work to keep wages down, yet pay themselves hundreds of times what they pay workers.
Absolutely on target, David H. The people who hire "illegal immigrants" never suffer from breaking the law. Only the immigrants, so the high end restaurants, meat packers, and everyone in between can keep getting low wage workers. It is an insidious system and ought to be morally outrageous and legally "out". My two cents worth.......
But what I am very worried about is the possibility that Biden will lose, in part because people don't like major change, including seeing their towns become Spanish speaking. As a 12 year old, I lived in Paris for a year. I'd always been interested in foreigners at home. I'd go up to them in Harvard square, and ask them where they were from, and I didn't understand why the Parisians never spoke to me. Years later, I came to understand it. Paris was flooded with Americans. Our border towns are in the same situation, and it's not helping the Democratic Party, which encourages the migration.
Like the Irish with the "dirty, garlic-smelling, superstitious Italians":---who practiced their religion in the streets with processions (cf. Robert Orsi, The Madonna of 115th Street; popular religion/people's religion at its best.) Communities get really dislocated, etc. until they get through the process---which seems to be harder or more contentious now---but the historian in me says, only it only seems less so in the past .....
And Jessica Craven has all the Congressional and Senate phone numbers to call, over and over to tell the Dems to get on it, or anything else.
Thanks! I have my own senators and reps' numbers, but none for anyone else.