“No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces. Only the layman believes that in the course of a campaign he sees the consistent implementation of an original thought that has been considered in advance in every detail and retained to the end.” - Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, 1871
'Ukraine promise not to join NATO for ten years.'; TC, I don't think this would be acceptable to Ukraine. 'Thank goodness for my undergraduate degree - one no longer offered anywhere - in “Interdisciplinary Social Science,” i.e., History, Political Science, Economics and Sociology'. Yes, TC, I am grateful, too, for your studies and practice since. Thank you for writing this outline. I have been struggling through a couple areas for the past couple of years, particularly insufficient study of history. My college major was in 'government'. Worked for a professor of sociology and active in Civil Rights and anti-war movements, with a lot of attention to politics. Economics is another hole, which I have tried to fill to a small degree. Psychology is another crucial area, particularly given Putin's state of mind. It is one of the terrifyingly difficult aspects of favoring any of the options you provided. Arriving at the most 'sensible' option he might choose -- Putin + sensible -- do the two go together? If he is in a 'NO EXIT' state, hopefully a small group close to Putin will settle it. We have to continue the tight squeeze and much more help to Ukraine. Would appreciate hearing more from you.
I'm betting that Russian aircrew don't want to face the wing of Mudhens and squadron of C Eagles sitting in Poland right now, so our deployment there may help constrain that aspect of Russian behavior. I'm pretty sure that most or no Russian staff generals want to see a nuclear exchange, and orders to do even a 'small' one would result in a coup and Putin's ashes being spread along a country road near Sochi or Moscow.
Re. sanctions: Any mob boss has to look over his shoulder, and Putin's neck probably hurts like hell as his minions' financial health slides toward coma status. But would or could they grow a collective set big enough to approach the military and security apparatus?
That leaves whatever Putin thinks he can achieve with the shadow of the Red Army under his control, and whatever resolve NATO decides to show in response.
(I keep getting this image of my brothers organizing and re- organizing their little plastic soldier armies in the dirt in the backyard!! )
I am admiring the creativity and resilience of the Ukrainian volunteers, ferocious in their fight for their country. #3 is not out of the realm of possibility for the "feral-eyed" one (Romney on Putin) but God help us all if his Generals obey such a command. At this point I cannot see him having the humility to lose anything in a negotiation of the future. If, as the little Ukrainian grandmother maintained with great certainty, Putin is not only crazy but actually very sick, then regime change with all the gore that involves is in order...because he has misread the tea leaves and massively miscalculated, causing incredible and needless suffering and death. And our Allen Hingston is there in the midst of it all.
But as you say, decades and days, days and decades, stay tuned. Ash Wednesday has meaning far beyond itself this year!
Thank you, TC. So grateful for what you share. To me, it is a gift and liberty and freedom of speech I am loathe to think may ever be compromised or wrenched away anywhere in our world. As a teacher born to lead in that field of endeavor, I know how impossible it is to truly learn in an unencumbered way when repressed by those that think they know what we only need to think and know.
Very useful summary, TC. Thank you. I think option 1 is unlikely because it would involve too much loss of face. I'm hoping for some variant of option 2 as the least damaging. It would also make unwinding the sanctions a bit easier, possibly salvaging something of the Russian economy.
'Ukraine promise not to join NATO for ten years.'; TC, I don't think this would be acceptable to Ukraine. 'Thank goodness for my undergraduate degree - one no longer offered anywhere - in “Interdisciplinary Social Science,” i.e., History, Political Science, Economics and Sociology'. Yes, TC, I am grateful, too, for your studies and practice since. Thank you for writing this outline. I have been struggling through a couple areas for the past couple of years, particularly insufficient study of history. My college major was in 'government'. Worked for a professor of sociology and active in Civil Rights and anti-war movements, with a lot of attention to politics. Economics is another hole, which I have tried to fill to a small degree. Psychology is another crucial area, particularly given Putin's state of mind. It is one of the terrifyingly difficult aspects of favoring any of the options you provided. Arriving at the most 'sensible' option he might choose -- Putin + sensible -- do the two go together? If he is in a 'NO EXIT' state, hopefully a small group close to Putin will settle it. We have to continue the tight squeeze and much more help to Ukraine. Would appreciate hearing more from you.
I'm betting that Russian aircrew don't want to face the wing of Mudhens and squadron of C Eagles sitting in Poland right now, so our deployment there may help constrain that aspect of Russian behavior. I'm pretty sure that most or no Russian staff generals want to see a nuclear exchange, and orders to do even a 'small' one would result in a coup and Putin's ashes being spread along a country road near Sochi or Moscow.
Re. sanctions: Any mob boss has to look over his shoulder, and Putin's neck probably hurts like hell as his minions' financial health slides toward coma status. But would or could they grow a collective set big enough to approach the military and security apparatus?
That leaves whatever Putin thinks he can achieve with the shadow of the Red Army under his control, and whatever resolve NATO decides to show in response.
I'm not placing bets yet on that that situation
(I keep getting this image of my brothers organizing and re- organizing their little plastic soldier armies in the dirt in the backyard!! )
I am admiring the creativity and resilience of the Ukrainian volunteers, ferocious in their fight for their country. #3 is not out of the realm of possibility for the "feral-eyed" one (Romney on Putin) but God help us all if his Generals obey such a command. At this point I cannot see him having the humility to lose anything in a negotiation of the future. If, as the little Ukrainian grandmother maintained with great certainty, Putin is not only crazy but actually very sick, then regime change with all the gore that involves is in order...because he has misread the tea leaves and massively miscalculated, causing incredible and needless suffering and death. And our Allen Hingston is there in the midst of it all.
But as you say, decades and days, days and decades, stay tuned. Ash Wednesday has meaning far beyond itself this year!
Russia is starting to target civilians. Cluster bombs. What is a barrel bomb?
Thank you, TC. So grateful for what you share. To me, it is a gift and liberty and freedom of speech I am loathe to think may ever be compromised or wrenched away anywhere in our world. As a teacher born to lead in that field of endeavor, I know how impossible it is to truly learn in an unencumbered way when repressed by those that think they know what we only need to think and know.
Salud!
Very useful summary, TC. Thank you. I think option 1 is unlikely because it would involve too much loss of face. I'm hoping for some variant of option 2 as the least damaging. It would also make unwinding the sanctions a bit easier, possibly salvaging something of the Russian economy.
Option 3 is insane, but Putin is not a rational actor.
And it is only Monday.