My friend Josh Marshall (since back when TPM was a page on Blogger) takes another look at the recent polls that keep not showing Biden crushing Trump and gives a solid analysis - and a reason not to pay attention to them so much. From today’s Editor’s Blog (subscribers only)
We've all been saying for a long time that the only poll that matters ends when the last voting site closes on Nov. 5. Everything else is just wannabe journalists filling in their 500 words. Biden-Harris will win if we all turn out and take our friends and neighbors with us.
It does seem to me that the prospect of low voter turnout seems to hinge on which party has the lower turnout--which party has more energized voters. Biden has the abortion issue, which could be really energized depending on how the Extremes deal with today's arguments on the emergency room issue. What energizes trump voters? Immigration, probably, though Biden's recent moves seem to do the best he can with the limited funds he has available. I doubt those who thinks he goes too far given the wording of the asylum laws will choose to stay home because of that: I worry about that issue and I am certainly not staying home. How many people are actually energized by the prospects of Project 2025? The economy? The Dems are certainly going to have to do more about publicizing the actual state of the economy, but that seems doable.
I don't read polls, much less drill down into them. How many ask the question "what is the most important issue for you in the upcoming election and leave the question open ended, so people don't have to check off from a list of choices; certainly such a response and its percentages should tell us something about what matters to how many people, and it isn't hard to sort whatever they say into "likely GOP" vs "likely Dem." Another question could be "if the weather is really bad on election day, is this issue important enough to you to cause you to go vote anyway."
Polls float through my consciousness without leaving much of a trace, but the feeling (hunch? prediction?) among some pollsters and/or poll watchers that this is likely to be a low-turnout election does not inspire confidence in "we the people." The 2020 election was crucial, but 2024 is even more so. I'm not surprised that few people seem to have heard of Project 2025. More people are aware of the implosion of the GOP -- it's hard to miss! -- but they generally don't realize how explicitly anti-democratic the Republican Party has become. I'm encouraged, though, that women are still royally pissed off about the Dobbs decision, and that the SCOTUS majority is still trying to stuff its "originalist" gunk down the country's gullet. And of course I'm making it worse for myself by reading obsessively about right-wing and fascist movements in the U.S. . . .
A quick time out from today's commitments for a quick thank you. I am not into polls. Meaning, I give them little credence at the moment. The reality is that in presidential voting the popular vote only will get the candidate part of the way. Unfortunately we must continue to live with the highly undemocratic "electoral college". One day maybe it will be tossed out. However I want to share a link to a 30 minute interview with Timothy Snyder which popped up (AI again) this morning while I was drinking coffee! I found what he said about the critical element voting represents worth remembering, and deeply significant who you vote for. Only 30 minutes and worth it. Voting matters.
I have zero faith in polls and generally ignore them. Their samples are too small. They don't cover every State, They don't cover every age group in every State. AND they rely on people who answer their phone.. Like a lot of people I don't answer calls from numbers I don't know or for those who give their name, from people I don't know. Same with e-mail. So who are they polling? Lonely people who just like attention? Angry people who want to spout off?
We've all been saying for a long time that the only poll that matters ends when the last voting site closes on Nov. 5. Everything else is just wannabe journalists filling in their 500 words. Biden-Harris will win if we all turn out and take our friends and neighbors with us.
It does seem to me that the prospect of low voter turnout seems to hinge on which party has the lower turnout--which party has more energized voters. Biden has the abortion issue, which could be really energized depending on how the Extremes deal with today's arguments on the emergency room issue. What energizes trump voters? Immigration, probably, though Biden's recent moves seem to do the best he can with the limited funds he has available. I doubt those who thinks he goes too far given the wording of the asylum laws will choose to stay home because of that: I worry about that issue and I am certainly not staying home. How many people are actually energized by the prospects of Project 2025? The economy? The Dems are certainly going to have to do more about publicizing the actual state of the economy, but that seems doable.
I don't read polls, much less drill down into them. How many ask the question "what is the most important issue for you in the upcoming election and leave the question open ended, so people don't have to check off from a list of choices; certainly such a response and its percentages should tell us something about what matters to how many people, and it isn't hard to sort whatever they say into "likely GOP" vs "likely Dem." Another question could be "if the weather is really bad on election day, is this issue important enough to you to cause you to go vote anyway."
Polls float through my consciousness without leaving much of a trace, but the feeling (hunch? prediction?) among some pollsters and/or poll watchers that this is likely to be a low-turnout election does not inspire confidence in "we the people." The 2020 election was crucial, but 2024 is even more so. I'm not surprised that few people seem to have heard of Project 2025. More people are aware of the implosion of the GOP -- it's hard to miss! -- but they generally don't realize how explicitly anti-democratic the Republican Party has become. I'm encouraged, though, that women are still royally pissed off about the Dobbs decision, and that the SCOTUS majority is still trying to stuff its "originalist" gunk down the country's gullet. And of course I'm making it worse for myself by reading obsessively about right-wing and fascist movements in the U.S. . . .
A quick time out from today's commitments for a quick thank you. I am not into polls. Meaning, I give them little credence at the moment. The reality is that in presidential voting the popular vote only will get the candidate part of the way. Unfortunately we must continue to live with the highly undemocratic "electoral college". One day maybe it will be tossed out. However I want to share a link to a 30 minute interview with Timothy Snyder which popped up (AI again) this morning while I was drinking coffee! I found what he said about the critical element voting represents worth remembering, and deeply significant who you vote for. Only 30 minutes and worth it. Voting matters.
https://youtu.be/3y6EaZ1nKHE?si=pMYSgC4bGoOpEJmj
One Word: Abortion.
I have zero faith in polls and generally ignore them. Their samples are too small. They don't cover every State, They don't cover every age group in every State. AND they rely on people who answer their phone.. Like a lot of people I don't answer calls from numbers I don't know or for those who give their name, from people I don't know. Same with e-mail. So who are they polling? Lonely people who just like attention? Angry people who want to spout off?