HERE'S SOME BAD NEWS - JIM JORDAN WILL BE ELECTED SPEAKER TOMORROW

From the Axios end-of-day email update:

Key House Republicans adamantly opposed to electing Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as speaker have suddenly laid down their arms, clearing the way for a vote tomorrow that could hand the gavel to one of the most polarizing lawmakers in Congress.

Why it matters: The bulk of Jordan's math problem effectively melted away overnight. The result may be a short-term end to the GOP chaos that has paralyzed Congress for the last two weeks — and the improbable empowerment of one of former President Trump's fiercest defenders.

Driving the news: Jordan won a huge endorsement this morning from House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), who had told reporters on Friday there was nothing Jordan could do to win his support.

• That was followed by another surprise endorsement from Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), an ally to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), who said Friday she could "absolutely not" back Jordan — calling him "disgraceful."

• Jordan also earned the backing of Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.) — a quick succession of reversals that suggested Jordan could have enough momentum to win on the House floor.

Yes, but: These were the most public of "no" votes. Dozens of Republicans have not yet weighed in.

• Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Carlos A. Giménez (R-Fla.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.) all indicated today they still oppose Jordan.

How we got here: After Jordan's nomination in an internal GOP conference vote on Friday, 55 Republicans indicated they would not support the conservative firebrand on the House floor.

• Jordan spent the next few days working the phones and meeting with his critics, while conservative allies outside Congress mounted an aggressive pressure campaign against the holdouts.

• Jordan is extremely popular with the MAGA base, which comprises the bloc of Republican voters most likely to dictate whether GOP members of Congress can survive primary challenges.

Zoom in: Sean Hannity's Fox News show sent emails to potential defectors grilling them on their opposition to Jordan, a strong-arming tactic that irked some lawmakers — but which may have ultimately proved effective.

• The threat of Democrats working with exasperated Republican centrists to elect their own speaker also likely spooked some GOP holdouts into dropping their opposition to Jordan.

The intrigue: Four House Republicans walked away from conversations with Jordan under the impression he will allow a floor vote on linking Ukraine funding with Israel funding if he becomes speaker, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke scooped.

• A Jordan spokesperson denied that he made any promises, but the discussions appear to have been enough to sway some national security hawks previously critical of his Ukraine stance.

Democratic lawmakers, operatives and ad-makers are salivating at the prospect of making swing-district Republicans own their Jordan vote on the campaign trail, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

Driving the news: House Majority Forward, House Democrats' issue advocacy nonprofit, is pre-empting the speakership vote with robocalls targeted at 11 GOP-held districts urging them to vote against Jordan.

• The ads take aim at Jordan's vote to decertify Pennsylvania and Arizona's 2020 electoral votes, his opposition to abortion and his support for cuts to welfare, health care and education.

What we're hearing: Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Axios that GOP centrists who vote for Jordan "are hand-delivering the DCCC content for ads ahead of next year."

• A New York Democratic operative said if the six Biden-district Republicans in their state vote for Jordan, "We'll eviscerate them."

• A Democratic House staffer said they are already preparing a press release blasting "MAGA Republicans" for picking the Freedom Caucus co-founder as speaker.

Between the lines: One swing district Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said whether they use Jordan on the campaign trail "ultimately ... depends on how awful he is."

• "If he turns out to be a statesman ... we will look stupid," they said. "I don't see that happening."

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