There was also a new batch of polling from Times/Siena today. Their results have been historically poorer for Democrats, but today they are showing a sizable shift. According to Josh Marshall at TPM they have it as Kamala up 50-46 among likely voters in all three swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. These results are in line with the national trends.
My blood pressure is trending in the opposite direction.
This means that it’s Trump who’s never very much on electoral defense, needing to hold all the southern tier states and grab at least one of the states in the Blue Wall. We still have almost three months left of this race. We’re only three weeks in. But this is a decisively changed race. That’s not an overstatement. It’s not just the top-line numbers. Major demographic groups have shifted in Harris’s favor. She’s simply more popular, more popular than Biden had been in years and more popular, judged by net favorability, than she was more or less until she became the de facto nominee.
Harking back to TC’s post on Lawrence O’Donnell‘s iconically vehement editorial two nights ago, I read someone’s Substack post yesterday (apologies I don’t recall whose, but I read all the usual suspects) seeming to have an inside story that Trump’s supposed press conference was a prime example of obsequiousness, that he cherrypicked certain reporters to attend, and they were given a role to play. Period! If true, not surprising, but I thought I’d post it here for visibility rather than backtracking to comments of several days ago.
Forward looking honest joy vs Backward looking dark subterfuge.
The Prosecutor vs the Felon. Plain language vs word salads. Yes, Lawrence, agreed, can we please stop with the double standards and witness some straight up real reporting???! This both-sides-ism doesn’t cut it.
Hello from Nevada! I have thought we would end up going Democratic.
Amodei is in a "safe" district and I think he's safe. He's long been vastly overrated because the media here like him--he usually is good for a quote. He is typical of our republicans who get elected to Congress: They often are moderately conservative in the legislature, then get to DC and become traitors.
Titus had a similarly safe district until legislators broke it up to help Lee and Horsford. They all have similar percentages in their districts, but Lee still runs as though it's a one-point nail-biter--which it could be. But Titus has a long history here and should be fine, plus she outworks everybody.
On the topic of the race overall… I just have to share. Please forgive that it’s not on the focused topic, the races in Nevada, though overarching ripple effect applies, of course.
How Biden's Withdrawal Can Foster the Emergence of Natural Intelligence
This is a fascinating article. I can readily see how the current situation can encourage coalition building and innovation when viewed through the lens of "edge effect abundance" in the natural world. And the compressed time frame (three freaking months!) would only add to the intensity.
I must remark that networking, staying alert, and honoring respectful relationships truly seems to open one to a fascinating life path. I only connected with this author because I taught her <delightful> nephews as a substitute teacher (one in my grandson’s cohort), had retired from a full career but was sorely missing teaching…(subbing ceased when my husband suffered a stroke, requiring my undivided focus). The author is a vastly accomplished individual, have read about her in posts on the family Facebook page. “Edge effect abundance” is a concept new to me but makes perfect sense and I just had to share. So glad I did. I am more a trends and patterns person, I think, unlike some people who retain massive factual information, which itself of course begs to be organized into perceived trends and patterns, yes? (TC is famously adept at both!) Thanks for your upvote! Love TC’s community!
Thanks for posting this, Katherine. It's an interesting article and offers a good framework for understanding the coalescence of diverse groups around Harris.
Good news, Tom. And I have to add here that I just got back from over 300 miles of driving through traditionally Republican territory here in Michigan's Thumb area. I counted 14 Trump signs (no Trump/Vance) and 42 "now hiring" and "help wanted" signs.. Not statistically significant, but oh so heartening.
Sorry Tom. I'm not with you on this one. 991 people in Nevada, represents 0.00003 % of the population, and I'm supposed to believe this poll has any significance? Tough patooties. Polls are just another meaningless waste of money. We are asked for continual donations to political campaigns and what do the spend the money on? Polls, meaningless. TV ads, meaningful only to the oligarchs running the media. I don't mind paying to hear Kamala and Tim telling us what they hope to accomplish in the next four years.
I no longer support the DCCC, DNC, or DSCC because they long ago ceased doing the only meaningful job they ever had - recruiting and training young Democrats to become the new members of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
I still send money to Kamala and Tim, and my own State Congressman and Senator - not because I think they need it, but it gives them bragging rights about their number of contributors. But the $10,000,0000,000 on this election? Yes that is ten billion dollars. If we spent that on affordable housing alone we could probably cut the homeless problem by 90% (there will always be a small percentage of people who prefer to 'live off the land') If we divided that $10 Billion dollars between affordable housing and mental health treatment for all who need it we'd solve even more problems.
Sorry, but screw the pollsters. There are more honest ways for mathematicians and statisticians to earn a living - they may not get as rich - but they will have a comfortable middle class living. At least after the Democrats pass a wealth tax. And yes it's another redistribution - we seem to need this too frequently. In the last forty to fifty years the wealth has been redistributed to the top 0.1%
There was also a new batch of polling from Times/Siena today. Their results have been historically poorer for Democrats, but today they are showing a sizable shift. According to Josh Marshall at TPM they have it as Kamala up 50-46 among likely voters in all three swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. These results are in line with the national trends.
My blood pressure is trending in the opposite direction.
Josh's final paragraph is important:
This means that it’s Trump who’s never very much on electoral defense, needing to hold all the southern tier states and grab at least one of the states in the Blue Wall. We still have almost three months left of this race. We’re only three weeks in. But this is a decisively changed race. That’s not an overstatement. It’s not just the top-line numbers. Major demographic groups have shifted in Harris’s favor. She’s simply more popular, more popular than Biden had been in years and more popular, judged by net favorability, than she was more or less until she became the de facto nominee.
Harking back to TC’s post on Lawrence O’Donnell‘s iconically vehement editorial two nights ago, I read someone’s Substack post yesterday (apologies I don’t recall whose, but I read all the usual suspects) seeming to have an inside story that Trump’s supposed press conference was a prime example of obsequiousness, that he cherrypicked certain reporters to attend, and they were given a role to play. Period! If true, not surprising, but I thought I’d post it here for visibility rather than backtracking to comments of several days ago.
Forward looking honest joy vs Backward looking dark subterfuge.
The Prosecutor vs the Felon. Plain language vs word salads. Yes, Lawrence, agreed, can we please stop with the double standards and witness some straight up real reporting???! This both-sides-ism doesn’t cut it.
Hello from Nevada! I have thought we would end up going Democratic.
Amodei is in a "safe" district and I think he's safe. He's long been vastly overrated because the media here like him--he usually is good for a quote. He is typical of our republicans who get elected to Congress: They often are moderately conservative in the legislature, then get to DC and become traitors.
Titus had a similarly safe district until legislators broke it up to help Lee and Horsford. They all have similar percentages in their districts, but Lee still runs as though it's a one-point nail-biter--which it could be. But Titus has a long history here and should be fine, plus she outworks everybody.
On the topic of the race overall… I just have to share. Please forgive that it’s not on the focused topic, the races in Nevada, though overarching ripple effect applies, of course.
How Biden's Withdrawal Can Foster the Emergence of Natural Intelligence
Kimberly Danek Pinkson | Jul 21, 2024
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-bidens-withdrawal-can-foster-emergence-natural-pinkson-t9gac
---
This is a fascinating article. I can readily see how the current situation can encourage coalition building and innovation when viewed through the lens of "edge effect abundance" in the natural world. And the compressed time frame (three freaking months!) would only add to the intensity.
Fascinating.
I must remark that networking, staying alert, and honoring respectful relationships truly seems to open one to a fascinating life path. I only connected with this author because I taught her <delightful> nephews as a substitute teacher (one in my grandson’s cohort), had retired from a full career but was sorely missing teaching…(subbing ceased when my husband suffered a stroke, requiring my undivided focus). The author is a vastly accomplished individual, have read about her in posts on the family Facebook page. “Edge effect abundance” is a concept new to me but makes perfect sense and I just had to share. So glad I did. I am more a trends and patterns person, I think, unlike some people who retain massive factual information, which itself of course begs to be organized into perceived trends and patterns, yes? (TC is famously adept at both!) Thanks for your upvote! Love TC’s community!
Thanks for posting this, Katherine. It's an interesting article and offers a good framework for understanding the coalescence of diverse groups around Harris.
Thanks for sharing this thought provoking article. It reminds me of the concept of interdependence!
AMEN!!!!!
Good news, Tom. And I have to add here that I just got back from over 300 miles of driving through traditionally Republican territory here in Michigan's Thumb area. I counted 14 Trump signs (no Trump/Vance) and 42 "now hiring" and "help wanted" signs.. Not statistically significant, but oh so heartening.
Sorry Tom. I'm not with you on this one. 991 people in Nevada, represents 0.00003 % of the population, and I'm supposed to believe this poll has any significance? Tough patooties. Polls are just another meaningless waste of money. We are asked for continual donations to political campaigns and what do the spend the money on? Polls, meaningless. TV ads, meaningful only to the oligarchs running the media. I don't mind paying to hear Kamala and Tim telling us what they hope to accomplish in the next four years.
I no longer support the DCCC, DNC, or DSCC because they long ago ceased doing the only meaningful job they ever had - recruiting and training young Democrats to become the new members of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
I still send money to Kamala and Tim, and my own State Congressman and Senator - not because I think they need it, but it gives them bragging rights about their number of contributors. But the $10,000,0000,000 on this election? Yes that is ten billion dollars. If we spent that on affordable housing alone we could probably cut the homeless problem by 90% (there will always be a small percentage of people who prefer to 'live off the land') If we divided that $10 Billion dollars between affordable housing and mental health treatment for all who need it we'd solve even more problems.
Sorry, but screw the pollsters. There are more honest ways for mathematicians and statisticians to earn a living - they may not get as rich - but they will have a comfortable middle class living. At least after the Democrats pass a wealth tax. And yes it's another redistribution - we seem to need this too frequently. In the last forty to fifty years the wealth has been redistributed to the top 0.1%
I repeat, the ONLY poll that matters is taken on Election Day November! All else is crystal ball gazing!