ELECTION NIGHT COMMENTS - UPDATE 5 AND 6 - important! UPDATE 7 - SENATE IS LOST - UPDATE 8

Given the importance of this election, this election night comment thread will be open to both paid and free subscribers. I will be keeping an eye on this and there will be a one strike and you’re out policy. So if “Frank Lee” is still flapping around in the bat belfry, I will take great joy in reducing you to your component electrons once again.

What I want is for everyone to live up to my hopes rather than down to any expectations.

At present, the results that have come in are unsurprising. Josh Stein has won the North Carolina Governor’s race. There’s a 5-hour wait in line for voting at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania. Georgia is too close to call. The Florida marijuana initiative failed.

All in all, surprise surprise…

If there is anything I see that seems important, I will update this thread.

If you know anything interesting happening where you are, post it here.

If you are in line to vote anywhere when the polls close - STAY IN LINE! You will be able to vote. STAY IN LINE.

So let’s see how the most consequential election in 164 years goes…

UPDATE 1: Angela Alsobrooks has won the senate seat in Maryland.

UPDATE 2: The Florida abortion rights amendment has failed with a 53% majority - a 60% supermajority was needed. Interestingly, 10% of voters in favor of the abortion amendment voted f or Trump and Scott.

UPDATE 3: Kamala has taken NY and RI. Georgie - too close to call; PA, WI, NC, MI, AZ, NV too early.

UPDATE 4: Ted Cruz has won re-election in Texas. Josh Hawley won in Missouri. Iowa went for Trump. Osborne is still ahead in a vote too close to call in Nebraska. Tester and Sherrod Brown are too close to call though both Ohio and Montana went for Trump. Scott won in Florida. The Senate is still a jump shot. The state Equal Rights Amendment won in NY.

UPDATE 5 - THIS IS IMPORTANT! Kamala Harris is running behind Biden’s winning vote totals in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This is happening in all the major Democratic bastions. In Pennsylvania, 88% of the vote is in and what is being counted is same-day vote (which traditionally is R-friendly). In Wisconsin, Harris’ vote is less than Biden in all major Democratic strongholds.

UPDATE 6: SHERROD BROWN LOSES IN OHIO! With this, the only way the Democrats hold the Senate is for Tester to win in MT and Osborne in NE, and then Tim Walz will live in the Senate for two years.

UPDATE 7: Harris wins Virginia, Trump takes battleground state of North Carolina. Significantly, Harris ran BEHIND Biden’s 2020 totals in both states. She also ran behind Biden’s vote in New York and New Jersey. In all four instances, she lost significant numbers with Latino voters. With Republicans winning the Senate, this shift in the Latino vote could have a major effect if it is reflected down-ballot in House races. The House is still in play. A Harris presidency without the Senate or House might as well not happen. CORRECTION: TESTER IS TOO EARLY TO CALL. HE HAS NOT LOST.

UPDATE 8: The Senate is lost. If Trump takes Pennsylvania, he wins 270 electoral votes, and this time he might win the popular vote. Yes, this is pretty awful, even if he doesn’t get back in the White House. But as much as you may want to do so, this is not the time to curl in a ball with your thumb in your mouth.

I’ll have more to say tomorrow.