Jerome Powell is a "supply side" economist - in media terms that is 'trickle down' I only took two semesters of Economics in College, but I'm far more Keynes and Galbraith. We've gone with this "supply side" crap since 1981 and what has it given us? A world in which only the wealthiest of the wealthy are secure. You can whine all you like but Elon Musk is no genius. He is a greedy son of a bitch like all the rest of his ilk. All we've gotten from trickle down is Gush Up to the point that the majority of people in this Country live paycheck to paycheck, hoping to hell that no appliances break, no gets really sick, and no unexpected bills come in. If I were Kamala I'd give strong hints that Jerome Powell is replaceable by an economist less interested in further pandering to the obscenely wealthy and more interested in the good of and wealth of the entire Nation.
I'm likely to tell my adviser to buy with cash on hand for discretionary opportunities like this. Gloom and doom work, as do brakes and gentle acceleration do when going into any curve.
The Fed, culturally, focuses on inflation to the exclusion of all else because it is exclusively populated by wealthy bankers. They do not encounter working people except as service providers. Powell will have his hands full getting a quarter percent rate cut in September.
That said the Democrats would be smart to start labeling Powell as Trump’s Fed Chair and criticize the slow turn to easing interest rates. It actually could give Powell ammunition for rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting.
I know little more about monetary policy than what I learned in college econ classes (long time ago) but my hunch was close to yours, GarySD: It's highly influenced (to the point of "dictated") by the uber-rich. When they get nervous, the Fed takes out the smelling salts. To have this going on so close to an utterly crucial election is nerve-racking to say the least.
Last month some folks over at Common Cause hinted that Powell was dragging his heels in orde to help Trump get elected. He was a day late and a dollar short on the front end of the Trump/Covid recession and is the same now at this end.
It appears the Street has the skitters over Buffet selling off so much Apple stock and Nvidia producing way, way more computer chips than Intel despite the latter getting a big financial boost from the Chips Act. And let's face it, the flyboys of the tech world want Trump and his goons returned to office because he wallows in the role of POTUS, the only thing he's every had over them, that and age and body mass.
Josh's factual background is accurate ... as always. A 'big market sell off' must be scrutinized more carefully, sector-by-sector.
What's a sell-off? In short, a sell off is risk avoidance. So ... 'Bitcoin' is down 15% & other 'Crypto' is down. No surprise there & Spoiler Alert, 'Crypto' is risk, real risk.
Interested in a specific sector? Ask questions & evaluate.
FYI, 'markets' are INTERNATIONAL these days. "Markets" get active before North Americans go to bed. We are NOT the post-1930's Depression 'MACRO' anymore & not in Kansas either.
Ya know ... individuals anywhere on the planet do NOT have to be carried along like a leaf in a risk-avoidance flood. There a number of options (plural) -- short the sucker is just one of many.
Getting back into the Markets (plural again) before the scalded cats come back is another.
Gloria, I received a Fed 'Board of Governor's Survey this morning aimed at "Bank Loan Officers" . My take: Fed is keeping close tabs on M1 and bank lending Trends.
Good points made here. I agree that VP Harris has room to call out Fed Chair Powell, that he is perhaps going too far to strangle inflation that while doing so he strangles the economy. Like you say, since VP Harris is part of the current administration she will get blamed if this economy tanks before November. The Trump Republicans have no such qualms.
"As Dario Perkins argues, what is driving the unemployment numbers (triggering the Sahm rule) is the surge in labour supply rather than a fall in payrolls. Dario Perkins therefore proposes a rule based on payrolls rather than the net unemployment number.
Consistent with this labour market story, which is driven by exceptional factors, the same is clearly true for household credit. Credit card standards set by banks have been on a rollercoaster and rather than indicating a draconian shock, the current tightening suggests normalization. (Robert Armstrong)"
In other words, some unique features of our current economy (still somewhat affected by previous Covid disruptions) have induced a panic sell-off in the markets when there may not be a recession coming..... Wouldn't be the first time - and yeah, Powell should go away, just go.....give him a Legion of Merit and wish him well, but just go.....
The "Fed independence" mindset that Mr. Marshall describes is eerily reminiscent of the "Justice Department independence" approach that Merrick Garland has taken and that apparently let the failed insurrectionist get away with a $10 million violation of federal election law.
Good move Kent. We have long been in an era of MICROSECONDS but, you do not have to rent one of Bloomberg's [Trading] Terminals at $27,660 annual rent in 2024.
This kind of thing, along with moves made by Netanyahu and a few other "friends of dictators world wide" are things we can't control which can churn up opportunities for unfair but strong criticism from GOPers between now and the election, and we need to expect any and all of them because everyone who would benefit from a 45 presidency is apt to throw what rocks they have as they see he's desperate for the support and apt to make promises. Kamala needs to say and do anything she can to throw the proper light on such events because while Dem leaders seem to "get bound up in this very technocratic, propriety-based, 'respect Fed independence' mindset" which applies in general across other situations, it Is "politically enervating and foolish" and my sense is that DEM voters see that, are exasperated with it, and would embrace a bit more spine at the price of a bit less stodgy line toeing way inside actual reasonable lines of ethical behavior.
"Why should she concede holding the bag for a Trump appointee?" Indeed. So good I shall again share around.
You won’t find many that way. How about this? We just randomly fire every other government employee and eliminate the “job”. Base it on odd or even social security number. Flip a coin to start.
Jerome Powell is a "supply side" economist - in media terms that is 'trickle down' I only took two semesters of Economics in College, but I'm far more Keynes and Galbraith. We've gone with this "supply side" crap since 1981 and what has it given us? A world in which only the wealthiest of the wealthy are secure. You can whine all you like but Elon Musk is no genius. He is a greedy son of a bitch like all the rest of his ilk. All we've gotten from trickle down is Gush Up to the point that the majority of people in this Country live paycheck to paycheck, hoping to hell that no appliances break, no gets really sick, and no unexpected bills come in. If I were Kamala I'd give strong hints that Jerome Powell is replaceable by an economist less interested in further pandering to the obscenely wealthy and more interested in the good of and wealth of the entire Nation.
"...Politics isn’t fair..." Ture enough, but even more so is the national media allergic to complexity, ambiguity and the plurality of cause.
The current news is that the Dow has recovered.
Just amazing, isn't it?
After hours trading almost immediately showed significant advantage being taken of the bargains available to those privileged investors only.
John, yours is the top Comment of the day. 🎯
I'm likely to tell my adviser to buy with cash on hand for discretionary opportunities like this. Gloom and doom work, as do brakes and gentle acceleration do when going into any curve.
Accurate phrase Fred, "discretionary opportunities".
The Fed, culturally, focuses on inflation to the exclusion of all else because it is exclusively populated by wealthy bankers. They do not encounter working people except as service providers. Powell will have his hands full getting a quarter percent rate cut in September.
That said the Democrats would be smart to start labeling Powell as Trump’s Fed Chair and criticize the slow turn to easing interest rates. It actually could give Powell ammunition for rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting.
Interesting idea.
I know little more about monetary policy than what I learned in college econ classes (long time ago) but my hunch was close to yours, GarySD: It's highly influenced (to the point of "dictated") by the uber-rich. When they get nervous, the Fed takes out the smelling salts. To have this going on so close to an utterly crucial election is nerve-racking to say the least.
Powell's banker and finance managers class benefits when interest rates rise while workers lose jobs.
Last month some folks over at Common Cause hinted that Powell was dragging his heels in orde to help Trump get elected. He was a day late and a dollar short on the front end of the Trump/Covid recession and is the same now at this end.
It appears the Street has the skitters over Buffet selling off so much Apple stock and Nvidia producing way, way more computer chips than Intel despite the latter getting a big financial boost from the Chips Act. And let's face it, the flyboys of the tech world want Trump and his goons returned to office because he wallows in the role of POTUS, the only thing he's every had over them, that and age and body mass.
Josh's factual background is accurate ... as always. A 'big market sell off' must be scrutinized more carefully, sector-by-sector.
What's a sell-off? In short, a sell off is risk avoidance. So ... 'Bitcoin' is down 15% & other 'Crypto' is down. No surprise there & Spoiler Alert, 'Crypto' is risk, real risk.
Interested in a specific sector? Ask questions & evaluate.
FYI, 'markets' are INTERNATIONAL these days. "Markets" get active before North Americans go to bed. We are NOT the post-1930's Depression 'MACRO' anymore & not in Kansas either.
Ya know ... individuals anywhere on the planet do NOT have to be carried along like a leaf in a risk-avoidance flood. There a number of options (plural) -- short the sucker is just one of many.
Getting back into the Markets (plural again) before the scalded cats come back is another.
Harris should comment on Powell's performance.
Gloria, I received a Fed 'Board of Governor's Survey this morning aimed at "Bank Loan Officers" . My take: Fed is keeping close tabs on M1 and bank lending Trends.
Good points made here. I agree that VP Harris has room to call out Fed Chair Powell, that he is perhaps going too far to strangle inflation that while doing so he strangles the economy. Like you say, since VP Harris is part of the current administration she will get blamed if this economy tanks before November. The Trump Republicans have no such qualms.
From Adam Tooz'es Chartbook blog:
"As Dario Perkins argues, what is driving the unemployment numbers (triggering the Sahm rule) is the surge in labour supply rather than a fall in payrolls. Dario Perkins therefore proposes a rule based on payrolls rather than the net unemployment number.
Consistent with this labour market story, which is driven by exceptional factors, the same is clearly true for household credit. Credit card standards set by banks have been on a rollercoaster and rather than indicating a draconian shock, the current tightening suggests normalization. (Robert Armstrong)"
In other words, some unique features of our current economy (still somewhat affected by previous Covid disruptions) have induced a panic sell-off in the markets when there may not be a recession coming..... Wouldn't be the first time - and yeah, Powell should go away, just go.....give him a Legion of Merit and wish him well, but just go.....
The "Fed independence" mindset that Mr. Marshall describes is eerily reminiscent of the "Justice Department independence" approach that Merrick Garland has taken and that apparently let the failed insurrectionist get away with a $10 million violation of federal election law.
No quick answers in Macro Economics, just trends, only history provides the answers.
Why is it that every time
Berkshire dumps a load of
any stock, everyone panics?
I well remember my Gran
saying my grandfather,
George F. Dewey warned to
never get involved in the
stock market. That was just
before the big crash.
Powell needs to go big and
cut the interest rates. Will he,
or won't he?
I haven't turned the TV on yet.
Good move Kent. We have long been in an era of MICROSECONDS but, you do not have to rent one of Bloomberg's [Trading] Terminals at $27,660 annual rent in 2024.
LOL
Only time will tell what was incorrect or correct as cycles must run their course, i.e. no instant answers in this game.
This kind of thing, along with moves made by Netanyahu and a few other "friends of dictators world wide" are things we can't control which can churn up opportunities for unfair but strong criticism from GOPers between now and the election, and we need to expect any and all of them because everyone who would benefit from a 45 presidency is apt to throw what rocks they have as they see he's desperate for the support and apt to make promises. Kamala needs to say and do anything she can to throw the proper light on such events because while Dem leaders seem to "get bound up in this very technocratic, propriety-based, 'respect Fed independence' mindset" which applies in general across other situations, it Is "politically enervating and foolish" and my sense is that DEM voters see that, are exasperated with it, and would embrace a bit more spine at the price of a bit less stodgy line toeing way inside actual reasonable lines of ethical behavior.
"Why should she concede holding the bag for a Trump appointee?" Indeed. So good I shall again share around.
So what fiscal and economic policies does Kamala have today?
We don't know yet EZ. She
hasn't fully stated what her
administration policies will
be. Personally, I hope she
weeds out all the republicans
holding down really important
administrative jobs. Time toq
clean house.
So, your hope is we become Argentina before Milei or Venezuela now?
You won’t find many that way. How about this? We just randomly fire every other government employee and eliminate the “job”. Base it on odd or even social security number. Flip a coin to start.
🤣 No, but there's some
dusting and sweeping in
dark corners that needs to
be done.