BYE BYE MBS

It looks like Seventh Century Camel Fornicator Mohammed bin Salman blew up the U.S.-Saudi alliance yesterday.

Hurrah!

Ro Khanna made the suggestion that we should send a message to the Saudis that they change their oil quota decision or face a cut in the military spare parts their US-manufactured armed forces require to function.

It turns out that might just happen. There is new hardball from the White House.

Senator Dick Durbin tweeted this morning that it’s time for the US to ditch the US-Saudi alliance. This is something we’ve heard for ages from backbenchers in the House or from others far distant from the centers of power. It’s unheard-of for someone like Durbin, at the center of power, to advocate this.

The OPEC+ decision is not only bad for the US and for the stability of the whole global economy, but also for the near-term electoral interests of the Democrats. Democrats have a clear secondary interest in publicly blaming the Saudis for whatever near-term impact the Saudi decision might have at the pumps.

Since Russia is currently the chair of OPEC+, the price increase have to be viewed in the context of previous Russian attempts to influence political decisions in the US and Europe. Before the OPEC+ announcement, gas prices were already up sharply in areas of the United States where there are several hotly contested congressional races, as well as close races for governor. According to oil industry spokesmen, these increases were the result of “unscheduled maintenance” at refineries on the West Coast and a large fire at a refinery in the Midwest.

Nevada, Washington, Oregon and Alaska have all seen prices jump by at least 40 cents a gallon over the past week. Nevada has seen a recent Republican push against Senator Catherine Cortex Masto and the three Democratic House members. In Washington, Democratic Senator Patty Murray is in a difficult campaign against a far right Big Lie supporting, Trump-endorsed opponent. Oregon has two close House races. Alaska has a major race for its sole House member. California has six close congressional races; in the past week, gas prices jumped 62 cents to an average $6.38 per gallon of gasoline (today I saw premium gas at $6.99/gallon at two stations and $7.25/gallon at a third). The fact that there are 12 House races in these five states, and that gasoline price gouging has been the strongest in these states, is not a coincidence.

Outside of the west, the price increases in the rest of the country have seen the highest increases in the swing states in the Midwest; while the increase has been less severe, it has been enough for drivers to notice the pain.

Big Oil has decided after a year of Biden that they want Trump. The oil companies are colluding with Saudi Arabia and Russia in an attempt to restore the Republican “red wave” in the House elections next month.

There is a nexus of issues that bring all three together: Big Oil is opposed to the Democratic policies to wean the country off fossil fuels and combat climate change. Saudi Arabia traditionally favors Republican administrations, and MBS has a personal alliance with the Trump family. For Putin, promoting political chaos among his opponents, and possibly changing US policy on Ukraine with Republican control of Senate and House, is an end run around the disaster that his aggression has unleashed in Russia due to his incompetence. Nearly all the Republican candidates in these 12 races are opposed to continuing aid to Ukraine.

There is no other logical conclusion. Big Oil has sided with America’s enemies.

MBS is operating in alliance with Vladimir Putin, committing an act that will help Russia just at a time when the European Union voted to cap Russian oil prices, which severely handicaps the Yard Punk in financing his aggression against Ukraine. By working to put a Republican majority in the House and Senate, both of them promote the likelihood of Trump returning to the White House in 2025, with the Republicans in charge of overseeing the transfer of power in Washington with big Lie supporters in strategic offices in the important swing states as a result of their meddling in he 2022 election. Big Oil, MBS and Putin all see a second Trump administration as beneficial to their interests.

Not only is it time for Biden to call MBS and tell him his armed forces will be grinding to a halt by the end of the year with no spare parts. Not only is it time to tell every OPEC country that their cartel is going to be the focus of U.S. antitrust legislation and enforcement. It is also time to call the CEOs of the oil companies and let them know a Windfall Profits Tax is on the table.

If they want to play hardball, it’s time to bring out the bat with the lead pipe in the tip.

The US-Saudi “alliance” has existed since Ibn Saud led his desert barbarians to take over Arabia after World War I and turn it into “Saudi Arabia,” followed by the first major discoveries of oil in the peninsula by the Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company in the early 1930s. The alliance was sealed during World War II when Saudi Arabia became the “gas station” for the Allies in the European Theater, since it was under US control and its oil was being refined to US standards.

The alliance continued as a bedrock of stability during the post-colonial upheaval in the Middle East, then through the oil crisis of the 70s, with Saudi Arabia supplying the oil for the oils-based economic expansion of the United States in that period. In realpolitik terms, the US-Saudi alliance used to make a lot of sense. The Saudis needed the US, despite our being cultural worlds apart. The US needed the Saudis, who operated for the US as the custodians of the price stability of the global oil supply. They also provided financial support to other US regional allies. We wanted them to provided a steadying hand in relations between Israel and the Arab states. It became increasingly rocky starting with the Saudi support of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the US expansion of fracking to cut our dependence on their oil. Like other bankruptcies, it proceeded slowly until the point came that it moved fast.

Yesterday was the tipping point.

The truth is that both countries now need each other much less than before. But the Saudis are acting mostly like the relationship is over even though the US mainly is not.They see the relationship in purely transactional terms, with very short term clearing of accounts. They are playing hardball with us but we’re not doing so with them.

It’s time for that to end.

The US should act accordingly and ask, “What, Saudi Arabia, have you done for us lately?”

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