This is the Putin equivalent to Stalins purges. The press ganged soldiers are intended to be killed. Ethnic cleansing of problematic minorities, removal of anyone who might fight back against the system. No deportations, gulags, or bullets to the back of the head. They will also serve to keep up the pretense of war while the destruction of civilians and infrastructure continues
It clicked the other day when I heard someone refer to Putin’s policies as genocide. How tidy. Do you think Hungry will keep its nose clean? NATO’s response?
Let me guess. If of those million reservists, 20 or 30 percent decide, when they meet the wild eyed, trained, terrifying Ukraine men and women, this is the time to make new friends rather than raise their Ak-47 to their shoulders, what do we think is going to happen? Surrender their arms and little used equipment to the Ukrainians and maybe even join the winning team? Too bad they won't have much intelligence to share in exchange for getting captured, but a few hundred thousand riffles, ammo, rocket launchers, uniforms, supplies, etc., it'd be like getting delivery of material from the Red Santa. Maybe President Zelensky should establish recruitment posts along the front line and offer signup bonuses for the, say, 900,000 men under the age of 45 to switch sides offering, say, a pathway to citizenship and training in a tech area of their choice. Maybe those new "recruits" could be peaceful noncombatants backfilling open jobs in Ukrainian agriculture and civil reconstruction of bombed and decimated towns and industries in exchange for this offer to realign with the good folks of Ukraine. Surely, I fantasize.
We are one people. I feel it like our students sitting in college class are pulled away from their young lives and studies and thrust into a war to be killed. I feel it like immigrants seeking asylum and finally in safe harbor after a treacherous journey rounded up and “sent somewhere”. I feel it like authoritarian dictators worldwide sacrificing people like cattle going to the slaughterhouse. I feel it like a lying, treacherous former president caught in a corner and debasing himself so his cult followers will sacrifice themselves for him.
I am incredibly sad. There will be so much work needed to be done to bring humanity to the surface of all things. While burying so many.
A steep price. I pray not more steep than forgiveness.
In 15 DAYS???!!! TC laid out the reasons that Putin’s war is going to end well for Ukraine.
‘Does anyone think these million men who will have been shanghaied into the Russian Army against their will, to fight in a war where they are not the defenders of their country against an invading enemy, but are rather the invading enemy, will be a motivated army?’ (TC)
TC didn’t stop there. I smelled the 2nd Russian Revolution on way.
‘When the sons of the cops start coming home in body bags, assuming their comrades don’t leave their corpses to rot on the battlefield as they have done with so many others since February 24, Putin’s final line of defense will be gone.’ (TC)
And those million men who were shanghaied into the Russian Army, the mothers, wives, sisters, brothers, and fathers of Russia will be marching against Putin. TC has begun his prehistory depiction of RUSSIA’S 2nd REVOLUTION. It’s gonna be something.
To say nothing of the fact that after a number of these "recruits" see their friends and comrades killed in idiotic assaults under direct artillery fire, they might just feel that perhaps their own officers are responsible and "frag" some of them - this has already happened earlier. Any army without good military discipline will not fight effectively, and could easily mass-surrender.
Is this going to be like the beginning of the movie “Enemy at the Gates” where Soviet soldiers are ordered to charge at the German lines where one soldier has a rifle and the next guy in line has the bullet for the rifle? And NKVD officers behind the horde to execute stragglers and deserters? Will the Russians of today accept their slaughter dumbly like their counterparts in the Great Patriotic War? For Putin’s Great Idiotic War?
There's a reason the Russians lost half of all the casualties suffered by ALL the belligerents on all fronts in WW2.....a complete disregard for the value of human life. Things have not changed.....
"15 days isn’t long enough to learn how to use an AK-47..." Yet, they're legal here with no checks?
And "sent into battle in the winter, with a support system that can’t get food, medicine or gasoline to those in the front lines." A gory bloodbath by xmas. I keep thinking of Sting's "The Russians Love Their Children, Too"
Fifteen days…no way, Jose…in fact, are there training centers for these raw recruits, DI’s and NCO’s to train them, doctors to examine them, basics like uniforms, boots, weapons, trucks and buses to move them, and even food to feed them? This is insane…and won’t end well.
This will be a national personal tragedy for Russia - this could be Stalingrad all over again, many thousands of casualties and deaths..... Russia likely does not have enough body bags to handle what is all too likely to happen. 15 days of "training" will prepare them mainly how to die in formation.....this is a military catastrophe in the making. These untrained troops will be more of a hindrance on the battlefield than useful troops - their main function will be to use up Ukraine's ammunition.....
Both HIMARS and MLRS can fire GMLRS-AW rockets that have a 200 lb. fragmentation warhead that can devastate the local target area. The effect of seeing several dozen comrades killed or injured from one barrage or rocket will pretty much finish the new "troops" as a fighting force. They should be grateful the US stopped using the old MLRS and TACMS missiles with cluster warheads - up to 900+ submunitions per warhead depending on model.....
There are so many variables to that, and none of them good, that that is about as much response as I have to that question. There is nothing good or even headed in that general direction, that comes from that event.
you pretty much said it yourself, Tom. 15 days is perfectly adequate training to be cannon fodder. I typed this last night and failed to "save" it.
right now I'm typing with some serious pain, having broken some ribs after a "routine" fall when my bad knee buckled. fortunately, it happened on the semi-shag rugs covering my long hallway.
in David Milch's new (and, unfortunately, last) memoir, he say that "the ravages of age are not for the faint of heart." and just yesterday, I experienced, for the first time, that thing you once described about what happens when you turn your head too quickly. I thought of you. as it is, I can't close my eyes when I'm standing up.
I was looking for some kind of wild metaphoric shtick that's bring this back to Putin, but the typing is too hard to sustain. but is it possible that his people are disinclined to like him as much as they did, say, last year? to quote my old Magic Eight Ball: "Signs point to yes."
Yes, TC; it's a going to be good for Ukraine as long as Putin isn't desperate enough to use the nuclear bomb, and from the tone of your report, he sounds desperate.
The US has apparently been warning him for several months not to go down the nuclear highway. We must hope that he does not want to see Russia destroyed, or if he does risk that, some general or advisor will see to it he falls out of a window.....
We simply make it clear that use of any nuclear weapon or biological or chemical weapons in Ukraine will result in the immediate destruction of his military and transportation infrastructure, and the $12 billion Kerch bridge is the first thing to go, followed by our air force and navy supporting the Ukrainians until the Russians are driven from every hectare of Ukraine's territory.....
We would make it clear to the Russian people that we had no intention of invading Russia itself, but would clear all Russian forces from Ukraine's territory if he used a weapon of mass destruction. This war was always going to involve a war with NATO - Putin wants to close the geographic locations in Europe that have served before as invasion paths into Russia, and he must take all of Ukraine and then eastern Romania and the eastern half of Poland, as the Russians did in concert with the Germans in 1939..... The only way to avoid a war between Russia and NATO is to bleed the Russian army so badly in Ukraine that Putin does not have the forces needed to invade anyone else. Not at all fair to the Ukrainians, but they are the '300' right now..... Diplomacy is essential, but it does require two or more willing participants.
Another thing to understand is that in several ways, Russia's time is coming to an end. Their demographics are critical, and in 10 years they will not have the men available to mount a credible military deterrent - they will find it far more difficult just to defend their current territory much less go looking for more..... Another forced error is that Russia does not have the technical expertise to run their energy production facilities, and Putin's war has run off all the western experts who did run the oil and gas business. They will produce and sell oil and gas until something breaks or the pressure builds up in the lines because of reduced sales, and they have to shut-in the wells to save them. But Russia doesn't have the ability to restart those shut-in wells themselves - under current circumstances, Russia is in effect taking itself out of the oil and gas markets as those facilities have to be shut down or are damaged by over pressure in the lines. At that point, Putin loses a huge amount of his operating income and his leverage using oil and gas availability against customer countries.....
This is the Putin equivalent to Stalins purges. The press ganged soldiers are intended to be killed. Ethnic cleansing of problematic minorities, removal of anyone who might fight back against the system. No deportations, gulags, or bullets to the back of the head. They will also serve to keep up the pretense of war while the destruction of civilians and infrastructure continues
That's a very perceptive analysis, Allen, particularly with reports that the majority of the press-ganging is happening among the ethnic minorities.
Thanks. Some of it stolen and some original. And I used your Tallenburg article in my last blog post. I steal from the best
Steal away! :-)
It clicked the other day when I heard someone refer to Putin’s policies as genocide. How tidy. Do you think Hungry will keep its nose clean? NATO’s response?
I don't know. Hungary needs to be out of the EU and NATO that's for sure
Let me guess. If of those million reservists, 20 or 30 percent decide, when they meet the wild eyed, trained, terrifying Ukraine men and women, this is the time to make new friends rather than raise their Ak-47 to their shoulders, what do we think is going to happen? Surrender their arms and little used equipment to the Ukrainians and maybe even join the winning team? Too bad they won't have much intelligence to share in exchange for getting captured, but a few hundred thousand riffles, ammo, rocket launchers, uniforms, supplies, etc., it'd be like getting delivery of material from the Red Santa. Maybe President Zelensky should establish recruitment posts along the front line and offer signup bonuses for the, say, 900,000 men under the age of 45 to switch sides offering, say, a pathway to citizenship and training in a tech area of their choice. Maybe those new "recruits" could be peaceful noncombatants backfilling open jobs in Ukrainian agriculture and civil reconstruction of bombed and decimated towns and industries in exchange for this offer to realign with the good folks of Ukraine. Surely, I fantasize.
A boy can dream. :-)
A chicken in every pot. 🙂
We are one people. I feel it like our students sitting in college class are pulled away from their young lives and studies and thrust into a war to be killed. I feel it like immigrants seeking asylum and finally in safe harbor after a treacherous journey rounded up and “sent somewhere”. I feel it like authoritarian dictators worldwide sacrificing people like cattle going to the slaughterhouse. I feel it like a lying, treacherous former president caught in a corner and debasing himself so his cult followers will sacrifice themselves for him.
I am incredibly sad. There will be so much work needed to be done to bring humanity to the surface of all things. While burying so many.
A steep price. I pray not more steep than forgiveness.
🗽
In 15 DAYS???!!! TC laid out the reasons that Putin’s war is going to end well for Ukraine.
‘Does anyone think these million men who will have been shanghaied into the Russian Army against their will, to fight in a war where they are not the defenders of their country against an invading enemy, but are rather the invading enemy, will be a motivated army?’ (TC)
TC didn’t stop there. I smelled the 2nd Russian Revolution on way.
‘When the sons of the cops start coming home in body bags, assuming their comrades don’t leave their corpses to rot on the battlefield as they have done with so many others since February 24, Putin’s final line of defense will be gone.’ (TC)
And those million men who were shanghaied into the Russian Army, the mothers, wives, sisters, brothers, and fathers of Russia will be marching against Putin. TC has begun his prehistory depiction of RUSSIA’S 2nd REVOLUTION. It’s gonna be something.
To say nothing of the fact that after a number of these "recruits" see their friends and comrades killed in idiotic assaults under direct artillery fire, they might just feel that perhaps their own officers are responsible and "frag" some of them - this has already happened earlier. Any army without good military discipline will not fight effectively, and could easily mass-surrender.
Is this going to be like the beginning of the movie “Enemy at the Gates” where Soviet soldiers are ordered to charge at the German lines where one soldier has a rifle and the next guy in line has the bullet for the rifle? And NKVD officers behind the horde to execute stragglers and deserters? Will the Russians of today accept their slaughter dumbly like their counterparts in the Great Patriotic War? For Putin’s Great Idiotic War?
There's a reason the Russians lost half of all the casualties suffered by ALL the belligerents on all fronts in WW2.....a complete disregard for the value of human life. Things have not changed.....
"15 days isn’t long enough to learn how to use an AK-47..." Yet, they're legal here with no checks?
And "sent into battle in the winter, with a support system that can’t get food, medicine or gasoline to those in the front lines." A gory bloodbath by xmas. I keep thinking of Sting's "The Russians Love Their Children, Too"
I heard that this morning for the first time via a LFAA post. Haunting.
Fifteen days…no way, Jose…in fact, are there training centers for these raw recruits, DI’s and NCO’s to train them, doctors to examine them, basics like uniforms, boots, weapons, trucks and buses to move them, and even food to feed them? This is insane…and won’t end well.
This will be a national personal tragedy for Russia - this could be Stalingrad all over again, many thousands of casualties and deaths..... Russia likely does not have enough body bags to handle what is all too likely to happen. 15 days of "training" will prepare them mainly how to die in formation.....this is a military catastrophe in the making. These untrained troops will be more of a hindrance on the battlefield than useful troops - their main function will be to use up Ukraine's ammunition.....
Both HIMARS and MLRS can fire GMLRS-AW rockets that have a 200 lb. fragmentation warhead that can devastate the local target area. The effect of seeing several dozen comrades killed or injured from one barrage or rocket will pretty much finish the new "troops" as a fighting force. They should be grateful the US stopped using the old MLRS and TACMS missiles with cluster warheads - up to 900+ submunitions per warhead depending on model.....
Worth every dollar. Thanks, TC.
TC, for a future post, when relevant, I’d be curious about your views on the response to the detonation is a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
There are so many variables to that, and none of them good, that that is about as much response as I have to that question. There is nothing good or even headed in that general direction, that comes from that event.
And yet, a choice will be made.
you pretty much said it yourself, Tom. 15 days is perfectly adequate training to be cannon fodder. I typed this last night and failed to "save" it.
right now I'm typing with some serious pain, having broken some ribs after a "routine" fall when my bad knee buckled. fortunately, it happened on the semi-shag rugs covering my long hallway.
oy. and ow.
Growin' old - it ain't for sissies!
Yikes!
in David Milch's new (and, unfortunately, last) memoir, he say that "the ravages of age are not for the faint of heart." and just yesterday, I experienced, for the first time, that thing you once described about what happens when you turn your head too quickly. I thought of you. as it is, I can't close my eyes when I'm standing up.
I was looking for some kind of wild metaphoric shtick that's bring this back to Putin, but the typing is too hard to sustain. but is it possible that his people are disinclined to like him as much as they did, say, last year? to quote my old Magic Eight Ball: "Signs point to yes."
Yes, TC; it's a going to be good for Ukraine as long as Putin isn't desperate enough to use the nuclear bomb, and from the tone of your report, he sounds desperate.
The US has apparently been warning him for several months not to go down the nuclear highway. We must hope that he does not want to see Russia destroyed, or if he does risk that, some general or advisor will see to it he falls out of a window.....
We simply make it clear that use of any nuclear weapon or biological or chemical weapons in Ukraine will result in the immediate destruction of his military and transportation infrastructure, and the $12 billion Kerch bridge is the first thing to go, followed by our air force and navy supporting the Ukrainians until the Russians are driven from every hectare of Ukraine's territory.....
That would mean Russia vs. NATO. NO. Diplomacy should not be abandoned.
Unfortunately, there are lines that can be crossed that go beyond diplomacy, and that is what we have to worry about.
😫
We would make it clear to the Russian people that we had no intention of invading Russia itself, but would clear all Russian forces from Ukraine's territory if he used a weapon of mass destruction. This war was always going to involve a war with NATO - Putin wants to close the geographic locations in Europe that have served before as invasion paths into Russia, and he must take all of Ukraine and then eastern Romania and the eastern half of Poland, as the Russians did in concert with the Germans in 1939..... The only way to avoid a war between Russia and NATO is to bleed the Russian army so badly in Ukraine that Putin does not have the forces needed to invade anyone else. Not at all fair to the Ukrainians, but they are the '300' right now..... Diplomacy is essential, but it does require two or more willing participants.
Another thing to understand is that in several ways, Russia's time is coming to an end. Their demographics are critical, and in 10 years they will not have the men available to mount a credible military deterrent - they will find it far more difficult just to defend their current territory much less go looking for more..... Another forced error is that Russia does not have the technical expertise to run their energy production facilities, and Putin's war has run off all the western experts who did run the oil and gas business. They will produce and sell oil and gas until something breaks or the pressure builds up in the lines because of reduced sales, and they have to shut-in the wells to save them. But Russia doesn't have the ability to restart those shut-in wells themselves - under current circumstances, Russia is in effect taking itself out of the oil and gas markets as those facilities have to be shut down or are damaged by over pressure in the lines. At that point, Putin loses a huge amount of his operating income and his leverage using oil and gas availability against customer countries.....