WHY THE NEW NYT/SIENA POLL IS BULLSHIT

Before you completely freak out over the “news” that according to the most recent NYT/Siena Poll, Trump leads Biden 48-43, read this analysis by Sarah Jones and Jason Easley at PolitusUSA:

The New York Times/Sienna Poll Has Some Serious Red Flags

This is not an indictment of polling methodology. There won’t be any allegations of bias, oversample, or anything of that sort. The NYT/Sienna poll is widely regarded as one of the better national polls, but this particular poll also highlights the crisis in polling and why pollsters have been having so much difficulty for several years.

The New York Times/Sienna Poll found that Donald Trump currently leads President Joe Biden 48%-43%, and this is what the media will report endlessly because the top line of the poll fits in perfectly with horse race election coverage. The media assumes that all polls are valid gospel and accurate snapshots of the election.

Since 2017, this has not been the case, but the media has an election coverage model and it is impossible to cover a horse race without the horses racing, so there is always very little questioning of the polls.

However, when the popped and you start looking at how the poll came to the conclusion that Trump leads Biden by five points, some big red flags emerge that suggest it should not be taken seriously.

Let’s examine three red flags.

Red Flag #1: Trump Keeps 97% Of His Supporters

According to the poll:

Mr. Trump’s ability to consolidate the Republican base better than Mr. Biden has unified the base of his own party shows up starkly in the current thinking of 2020 voters. Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.

The poll result does not match up with the results of the Republican primary.

In Iowa, 49% of the vote went to non-Trump candidates. In New Hampshire, 46% of the vote went to other candidates. In South Carolina, 40% of the vote went to other candidates. In Michigan, 30% of the vote went to non-Trump candidates.

In exit poll after exit poll, Haley voters by large majorities say they won’t vote for Trump in November, but the New York Times poll has the statistical impossibility of almost every Trump voter saying that they will support him again in 2024.

The New York Times poll contradicts what voters are saying when they vote, which is a big red flag.

Red Flag #2: Trump And Biden Are Tied With Women

Here is how The New York Times describes the results of the poll with women, “The gender gap, for instance, is no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Mr. Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Mr. Trump a nine-point edge.”

Biden beat Trump by 15 points in 2020 among women, and now they are tied.

This poll has arrived on the same week when Trump announced his support for a national abortion ban. Trump brags about taking away reproductive healthcare rights from women, and his party is struggling as Alabama banned IVF, and that is just one issue.

Trump was also found liable for rape.

Donald Trump isn’t going to split the vote among women with Joe Biden.

This result is a giant red flag that should raise questions about this poll.

Red Flag #3: Trump More Than Doubles His Support With African-American Voters

The New York Times poll also found that there is going to be a historic African American voter realignment. The poll found that 23% of African Americans support Trump.

If 26% of black voters voted for Trump, it would be the most radical realignment in African American voting since the Civil Rights Act was passed.

The Fox News theory is that black voters are supporting Trump because he got indicted, a point which manages to be both stupid and racist at the same time.

The black vote for Trump has been non-existent in the Republican primary, while Biden has shown his usual strength with black voters in Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Michigan.

There is no evidence of actual voter behavior in 2024 to support the findings in this poll.

The reason why the poll seems so out of step with reality isn’t bias or bad methodology. The polling technique is very good.

The problem is more basic and can be found in the methodology:

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide, including 823 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for the likely electorate.

If landlines are one of the two sources of the poll, there is going to be some problems. The poll tried to mitigate them by using 94% of respondents via cell phone. By the way the description of the methodology used that was published with the poll is excellent. It is detailed and comprehensive.

The problem is that only 19% of Americans will answer a cell phone call from a number that they don’t know, which is why the poll only had 823 complete responses.

The people who are more likely not be contacted by pollsters are young people, young women, first time voters, and voters who did not vote in the previous election.

The usual disclaimers apply to the NYT poll. It is early in an election year. No one poll should be taken seriously.

A reason why these polls end up missing so many Democratic voters and in 2024 have been overestimating Trump support is because several Democratic constituencies are less likely to be contacted or participate in polls.

In order for Trump to get a lead over Biden a poll had to find that Trump would double his support with black voters, Biden would lose his lead with women voters, and that virtually every single Trump voter in 2020 will cast the same vote in 2024.

Without all of those things happening Trump doesn’t lead. All of those things will not happen, which is why the New York Times poll should be ignored.

So, TAFM subscribers, Keep Calm And Carry On. It worked for the British during the Blitz.

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