WHERE THINGS ARE AT

Jay Kuo has an excellent up to thise morning analysis of where things are at, so I am copying the relevant portions here.

Ghosts of the past, spirit of the future

The year of my birth, 1968, has loomed like a specter over how a Biden replacement might play out. In March of that year, President Johnson, an accomplished leader who was also hamstrung by an unpopular war, had bowed out. The convention—also held that year in Chicago (I mean, c’mon)—became a chaotic display of Democratic disunity as protests in the streets and factions inside the hall raged. Eventually, Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, won the nomination. But he went on to lose to Richard Nixon, another corrupt and ultimately criminal GOP president.

History may not always repeat, but it often rhymes.

But instead of chaos, we have seen something quite rare among Democrats: consensus and discipline. The combination of excitement, the outpouring of love for Joe Biden and acclaim for Kamala Harris, the opening of voter wallets and donor dollars, the grassroots organizing that already has sprung into place—it is heady and exhilarating, a far cry from the despair, deadlock and resignation Democrats largely exhibited over the past three and a half weeks.

Democrats are looking to our future, thinking that we really could win this. As my piece on Friday after Trump’s speech underscored, Trump is very, very beatable. That was true with Biden, and it is absolutely true with Harris.

That funny feeling we all share now has a name: hope.

A resounding “Yes!”

You’ve probably already heard the impressive list of Democratic officials who moved quickly to back Kamala Harris as the new nominee. They include both of the Clintons, dozens of senators, and scores of House members. They come from across the political spectrum on the left, from staid moderates like Tim Kaine (D-VA) to Squad progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

Importantly, none of the other names that oddsmakers and pundits like to float around threw a hat into this ring. Statements of support came in from Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California. A spokesperson for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan issued her boss’s support. The main question on everyone’s mind wasn’t who would run against her, but which white male diversity candidate would best round out the ticket as her VP.

The press and punditry want to create palace intrigue by suggesting there is something nefarious or off, simply because those in top leadership positions (and who indicated publicly that they had reservations about Biden’s ability to lead the party to victory) have not come out publicly for Harris yet. This includes former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former President Barack Obama.

I want to offer a different theory that comports with my own understanding of what good and decent leaders do in a situation like this. First, good and decent leaders make the moment about Biden, who just gave up a second term and at least deserves to bask in the party’s adulation without those who helped nudge him to his decision talking openly about his replacement right away.

Second, good and decent leaders don’t feed unfounded rumors that the goal all along was to elevate Harris in some kind of a White House coup. If we assume instead they advised Biden in good faith that they had lost confidence in his ability to win, they can’t have their very next move be to foreclose any contest for his replacement.

Far better to allow Harris to plead her case to other officials, the state party leaders, and the delegates, as she immediately indicated she would do.

Indeed, Harris was on the phone for 10 hours making some 100 phone calls to elected and party officials in the wake of Biden’s announcement. What followed was a masterful course at locking up support and uniting the party behind a single standard bearer. It became clear that it would be politically suicidal for anyone to challenge Harris now.

So far, the only people who have made any noise about this aren’t even Democrats. Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) called party leaders to ask how he might also put his name into contention, and he was politely told he would have to re-register as a Democrat.

RFK, Jr. has also indicated that he would consider seeking the nomination if “party elders” urged him.

Manchin, who is 76, had just stated Sunday morning that it was time to “pass the torch” to the next generation, and he has since confirmed that he is in fact still planning on retiring rather than challenge Harris.

And RFK’s brain worm apparently ate more than he cares to admit.

The base and the grassroots

If one of Joe Biden’s perceived weaknesses was with the traditional Democratic base, the response to Harris’s call to arms could allay a great deal of those fears.

I watched with satisfaction as a zoom call for Black women—the party’s most reliable voters—to mobilize for Harris grew from a planned 1,000 people, then swelled to 20,000, then 30,000, before topping out at more than 40,000 people according to attendees and raising a reported $1.5 million.

The labor unions began moving quickly, too. By Sunday evening, the American Federation of Teachers had endorsed Harris, as had the powerful SEIU, or Service Employees International Union, which represents 1.9 million workers and is key to victory in the swing state of Nevada.

Progressive PACs also announced their support. Three of them representing AAPI, Black and Latino voters—AAPI Victory Fund, The Collective PAC and Latino Victory Fund—issued a joint statement of endorsement, which carries significant symbolic value.

The Human Rights Campaign, on whose national board I serve and which is the nation’s largest LGBTQ+ civil rights organization, mobilizing millions of equality voters across critical battleground states, came out yesterday evening with our own endorsement of Kamala Harris for President.

And among Gen Z voters, there is a finally a palpable excitement for a candidate who is far more relatable, hip and with it, who doesn’t carry the same political baggage around Israel and Gaza that Joe Biden does. Harris and her team are comfortable with digital media. Within moments of her announcement of her candidacy, the artist Charli XCX posted, “Kamala is Brat”—a tweet that has been viewed 21 million times with a quarter of a million likes, and Harris responded by branding the Kamala HQ account with Brat colors.

And on Sunday, Act Blue logged an eye-popping estimated $68.3 million in new donations for Harris for President. This comes as welcome news after fundraising dried up sharply following questions over Biden’s continued viability as a candidate.

The delegate count

While most observers have their eyes on party leaders, the donation meter and grassroots support, I have mine also on the convention delegates.

When Biden announced he would not seek the nomination, that meant every delegate who had been pledged to him through the primary process was released. But what would they do?

We now have a fairly clear answer. On Sunday, the state delegations from Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana and New Hampshire all voted to back Harris. That means she already has the support of 531 delegates out of the 1,986 she will need to officially secure the nomination. Other state delegations are holding calls today, and her support is expected to soar.

It is entirely possible that Harris will secure more than the number of delegates she needs by sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on how quickly the state delegates can meet in their respective states.

We should understand what this also means: The convention in August will proceed in an orderly rather than contentious way, with states proudly announcing their support for Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee to defeat Donald Trump in November. The moment will be well produced, full-throated and high energy, giving the party much needed momentum going into the fall.

The GOP got caught flatfooted

Beyond my delight in seeing Democrats coalesce behind Harris was my astonishment at how poorly prepared the Republicans were for this exact situation. Their response has been, charitably put, lackluster and undisciplined. This is a surprise given that the chances of Biden withdrawing were significant. Perhaps they miscalculated, believing Democrats would fall into disarray as usual.

A common theme is that this is some kind of unfair maneuver by the Democrats. And perhaps the GOP can be forgiven this reaction, given that Biden, either inadvertently or on purpose, decided to wait until they had wasted all their ammunition attacking him at their convention and went for the white boy summer end zone spike with their JD Vance VP pick, all before Biden announced his withdrawal.

Womp womp.

Donald Trump railed about this in a characteristically whiny way, complaining that they “have to start all over again” and even demanding the GOP be “reimbursed for fraud.”

Speaker Mike Johnson went on CNN and threatened legal challenges to replacing Biden at the top of the ticket. This ignores the fact that Harris is already on the ballots, there is plenty of time for ballots to be reprinted, and the Supreme Court just got through ruling that the several states can’t hijack the national election system by keeping party nominees off of the ballots. It also reveals how scared Republicans are of running against anyone other than Biden. And it is rather rich for Johnson, of all people, to claim election shenanigans after being the point person in the House leading his party to join in objecting to the election results.

Even as of this morning, Trump is still posting about Biden, as if he can’t fully wrap his bandage around the fact that Biden is no longer the nominee.

To his credit, at least he isn’t insisting he’s running against Obama. At least, not yet.

The contrast could hardly be clearer

The new match-up looks nothing like the old one. I’ll have much more to say about this later, but I want to leave you with a few contrasts to consider, many of which dispel the greatest concerns voters had before yesterday.

Harris is a seasoned prosecutor, and Trump is a convicted felon.

Harris is a champion of abortion rights, while Trump brags about having ended Roe v. Wade.

Harris is a hip, younger candidate, while Trump is an aging one with clear early dementia and aphasia.

Harris has sent sexual predators to prison, and Trump is an adjudicated rapist.

Harris will appeal to the winning Obama coalition, while Trump must rely on turnout from white MAGA voters.

Harris is articulate and organized in her public speaking, while Trump rambles nonsensically and interminably.

Harris is today’s news, and Trump’s is yesterday’s.

A note of caution: The attacks on Harris will come once the shock of what Biden just did to the race dissipates. Already, wild birther-adjacent claims that Harris is ineligible to run are making the rounds. And the GOP will seek to split off the Left by painting Harris as a cop and a tough prosecutor—a move that could backfire with the moderate voters and the GOP’s own ironic “tough on crime” stance. We need to remember what the media and the GOP did to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and work tirelessly to stamp out the fires as soon as we see them lit.

On a personal note, I was among the first in the San Francisco gay community to host a home fundraiser for Harris back when she was running for District Attorney. I worked in her office as a volunteer attorney, and I have the distinction of having been fired by her for being too vocal on social media (she was right to do so, for the record).

I have always believed she was destined for the highest office in the land and have said so many times through the years.

I am honored to join the fight to make her the first woman president of the United States and to help ensure Trump and Trumpism are kicked to the curb, then ultimately relegated to the historical dustbin where they belong. The community of readers for this substack, I believe, is equally energized and determined to help see this through and make it so.

So let’s f-ing go! It’s Kamala Harris FTW.

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