UH-OH...

I hate to disturb your nice relaxing Sunday afternoon, but...

We are 23 days out from November 8, and things are still up in the air. Disturbingly, some things are up in the air that should have been firmly locked away awhile ago.

In too many Democratic states and districts, voters are sitting back thinking all is OK; turnout, which is not only Everything but The Only Thing in mid-terms, may not live up to expectations.

Remember: House Republicans only need to pick up a net five seats, and they’re the majority, and the party that confirms the results of the 2024 election. And a majority of them state they think 2020 was stolen.

From the Axios Sunday analysis:

House Republicans are now increasingly confident they can make unexpected inroads into some solidly Democratic congressional districts, including in some of the bluest states in the country: California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island. Following the money is as important as following the (limited) congressional public polling.

Republicans are now pouring over $25 million into some of the bluest political battlegrounds on the map; a fresh sign that the political winds now favor the GOP down the home stretch.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s Congressional Leadership Fund PAC, has spent or reserved over $23 million on ads in eight Democratic-held districts that President Biden carried by double-digit margins. (Ariz.-4, Calif.-13, Calif.-47, Calif.-49, Conn.-5, N.Y.-17, Ore.-4, R.I.-2.)

The National Republican Campaign Committee is spending $2.2 million on coordinated or hybrid ad buys with their nominees in five more Democratic-held districts that Biden carried by double-digits. (Calif.-26, Ga.-2, N.M.-3, N.Y.-4, Ore.-6).

Republicans now believe they can win the Oregon governor's race for the first time since 1982, boosted by an intra-Democratic feud. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tina Kotek is running an ad against Republican Christine Drazan that attempts to nationalize a governor's race in which the Democrat is struggling. The ad ties Drazan to some of the Republican Party's right-wing figures, including former President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. "These MAGA Republicans wear it on their sleeves. This one tries to hide it," the ad begins.

The ad is reminiscent of the one run by Democrat Terry McAuliffe in his unsuccessful attempt to tie “normal Republican” Glenn Youngkin to Trump last year. Youngkin's victory in a blue state showed that GOP candidates with their own independent reputations are tough to caricature.

The big thing the Republicans are pushing nationally is accusing Democrats of being “soft on crime.” A new attack ad from Drazan speaks volumes about how dominant crime and urban disorder are in the GOP's blue-state messaging. The ad begins, "Tina Kotek stood with defund-the-police extremists, she legalized tent cities and voted with Kate Brown to let murderers and rapists out of prison early.” Tying Kotek to Governor Brown is a smart maneuver, since a recent Morning Consult poll found Brown is the least popular U.S. governor. Oregon is the only state in the country in which a majority of voters disapprove of their governor's performance.

The fact that Kotek is responding defensively is not good; as the old saying goes, “If you’re explaining, you’re losing.” Kotek’s campaign is responding with "Oregonians are justifiably frustrated and want real solutions to homelessness, crime and the cost of living. Tina will do what Kate Brown couldn't or wouldn’t and finally declare that state of emergency, and she will hire crews to clean up the trash." President Biden joined Kotek Friday in Oregon, one of the few battleground states where he's not seen as a political liability. "What a governor does matters. ... It matters, it matters, it matters!" Biden said to a group of Oregon Democrats as he held Kotek's hand.

Nike co-founder Phil Knight, the leading donor to Drazan, told the New York Times: "One of the political cartoons after our legislative session had a person snorting cocaine out of a mountain of white. It said, ‘Which of these is illegal in Oregon?’ And the answer was the plastic straw."

Oregon voters backed a referendum in 2020 to decriminalize small amounts of hard drugs like cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine; a move critics argue has fueled the crime spike.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is traveling to Oregon Tuesday to campaign for Drazan to make the connection between his upset victory last year and her underdog candidacy in 2022.

Democrats are playing furious defense in three Biden-friendly House battlegrounds in Oregon as well. Biden won the newly-created 6th Congressional District by +13; the district was intended to give Democrats an extra seat in the Oregon delegation. Instead, the race between Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and Republican businessman Mike Erickson is going down to the wire, according to strategists from both parties. Erickson is spending millions of his own money on the campaign, attacking Salinas for votes cutting police funding in the state legislature. Salinas has focused on Erickson's opposition to abortion, while also hitting him for a 2016 DUI arrest.

In a Rhode Island district that Biden carried by 14 points, a new Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll found Republican Allan Fung leading by eight points over Democrat Seth Magaziner. Republicans haven't won a House seat in Rhode Island since 1992 but are growing optimistic that former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung can break the streak against Democrat Seth Magaziner. Biden wod Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District by +14 in 2020. Democrats are portraying Fung as extreme on abortion, while Republicans are airing cheeky ads painting Magaziner as an out-of-touch child of privilege. Publicly available polling - including an internal survey released by the Magaziner campaign - shows Fung in the lead.

In a Connecticut district Biden won by 11, Republicans are spending $2.7 million to boost George Logan, a moderate Black state legislator, against Rep. Jahana Hayes. House Republicans made a concerted effort to diversify their recruiting class, fielding 67 non-white nominees this year. One of their strongest recruits is Logan, a Black former state senator and mechanical engineer whose ads distance him from the national Republican Party (not mentioning that of course he will vote with the majority in office, so much for “independence”). He's challenging Connecticut's first Black congresswoman Hayes, who is facing her first competitive race since being elected in 2018.

Democrats are also concerned about several New York battlegrounds, even Pat Ryan’s expectation-defying special election victory in August. One of the most worrying is the the redrawn suburban New York City seat of DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney. Losing this would be a hugely symbolic GOP pickup.

In California, Biden won the majority-Hispanic Central Valley 13th Congressional District by +11. The election pits State Assemblyman Adam Gray, a moderate Democratic insider, against Republican outsider businessman John Duarte, whose major line of attack is over Gray's vote to raise California's gas tax, a potent issue in a state where gas prices are the highest in the country. Gray has argued his independent voting record contrasts favorably against Duarte's extreme pro-Trump partisanship.

In the Orange County 47th district, which Biden won by +11, Katie Porter - one of the most iconic House progressives, known for grilling business executives with hard-hitting questioning at oversight hearings - is in a close race with former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh in a district that was redrawn and took a majority of her previous constituents away. Despite her massive campaign war chest - $15.8 million on hand at the end of September - Republicans believe her views are out-of-step with the suburban Orange County district. Outside Republican groups are making a late $2.4 million investment in the race on behalf of Baugh, who was last of note in California politics 25 years ago; that an over-the-hill rerun like Baugh is close in a race against a Democratic star is not good news.

The situation in Wisconsin is so concerning that former President Obama will appear on behalf of Governor Tony Evers and Senatorial candidate Lt. Governorn Mandela Barnes, despite Obama’s stated concern that his public appearance can energize as many Republicans as it would Democrats, which is why he has not been publicly on the campaign trail during this season.

A new Marquette Law poll of likely voters in Wisconsin shows Republican Sen. Ron Johnson pulling ahead of Democrat Mandela Barnes in the state's battleground Senate race. The survey, conducted between Oct. 3-9, finds Johnson leading Barnes 52%-46%, which is a notable increase from the poll's September survey showing a statistical tie. Both candidates have net unfavorable ratings, but Barnes' popularity in particular has faded amid a barrage of negative attacks centering on his criminal justice views. Independent voters are the critical voting bloc in the state, and they now favor Johnson by six points, 51%-45%. The poll also has the state's gubernatorial race statistically tied, with Governor Tony Evers holding a 47%-46% lead over Republican businessman Tim Michels, a Trump-supporting, election-denying extremist.

One common denominator in most of these races is crime. Murders have been on the rise in major metropolitan areas within these states and near these districts. GOP advertising has hit Democrats over bail reform, reallocating resources away from police, and an overall sense of disorder.

According to one Republican official analyzing internal data, another factor favoring the GOP is that abortion isn't as motivating of an issue as has been expected. Democratic voters are more confident reproductive rights are secure in states where Republicans are in the minority.

Additionally, none of these states have hotly contested Senate races driving up turnout, a dynamic that benefits Republicans.

If Republicans pick up even a couple of these districts, it's a sign of a sizable red wave.

Yes. It’s time to sound the alarm.

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