THE WIND HAS CHANGED

Think of America as an 18th Century sailing ship - think of it as “Old Ironsides”! - the ship has been becalmed in The Doldrums (that area of the planet where the winds shift from one hemisphere to the other without rhyme or reason) for a long time. The citizen crew are seeing the food supplies drop; the water in the barrels looks increasingly “fishy”. They have manned the longboats to try and tow the ship to “catch the wind” for many days, but to no result.

And then, on a day indistinguishable from any other, there comes a moment...

The Top Royal sail on the foremast flaps. Flaps again. And again...

The spar of the Mainsail on the mainmast creaks slightly as it turns...

The other high sails flap...

The crew watch the sails, intent. Can it be?

And suddenly the sails begin to fill with the wind!

It grows stronger - the lower sails fill.

And the ship begins to move again. Slowly, slowly gaining speed.

She turns in the new direction.

The sails fill in the wind, a magnificent sight.

Old Ironsides gets underway in Boston Harbor - May 21, 2021

Mendelssohn: Calm Sea and Prosperous Voyage, Opus 27

I was talking with my counselor during our weekly call yesterday, and she asked me what I was thinking about the current political situation. (This was before the Ukraine aid votes in the House last night) I said that as I see it, the tide is turning, the wind is picking up. Nothing really big (like I said, this was before the Ukraine vote, which is Yuuuuuugge!), but all the little indicators are turning the same direction.

It’s like after the Battle of Midway - the enemy is still strong, still dangerous, but the gutting they received in the fight opened the space for America to take action at Guadalcanal that led to the Japanese never taking offensive action during the war again.

Yes, this November is our “Guadalcanal,” or as we call it here at TAFM after the series on that battle was posted last year, our “American Stalingrad.”

The MAGA movement got splintered last night, and I for one don’t think they have the skill to put Humpty-Dumpty together again. (How’s that for mixed metaphors? Good?)

For one thing, J.D. Vance, Moscow Marge, and the rest of the Space Laser Putin Caucus, got thrown under the bus by Fearless Leader last night - who may not be able to do much, but he can read polls. He knows the wind has shifted, that the wind is filling the sails and we are beginning to move out of The Doldrums. He knows he’s losing control.

After last night, Ukraine aid will pass. Mike Johnson and Mitch McConnell braved the FART (Floor Action Response Team) of the Space Laser Putin Caucus and Did The Right Thing.

Trump gave Mike Johnson and Mitch McConnell the green light, while at the same time casting J.D. Vance, Marjorie Taylor-Greene, and the rest of the Russia Traitors over the side.

The essential line of Trump’s “Truthing” post last night is this: “As everyone agrees, Ukraine Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us!” (Emphasis mine)

He’s not doing this because he cares about Ukraine; he’s doing this because the polls are shifting; he needs fewer hassles. The wind is changing.

He’s doing this because his team knows there are a lot of 1st and 2nd generation Eastern European voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania; because even with conservative Republicans, Putin’s approval rating is in single digits.

One of the greatest legacies of breaking the MAGA movement on this issue is that no one loses in this deal:

Ukraine gets weapons. Putin gets hammered. Americans get jobs.

Trumpism - particularly its J.D. Vance-led German-American Bund Putinism - is a pessimistic creed. As Trump says, “We’re the stupid ones.” MAGA is a movement of decline, weakness, of dark forces draining America’s power. Trump and the Space Laser Caucus tell their supporters “We need to retreat, withdraw, hide, and let regional warlords like Putin reign over as much territory as they can seize.”

But what last night showed is it’s okay to win. It’s okay to believe in a just and right cause.

Here, now, Ukraine is that cause.

This is a contest between Russia, Iran, North Korea, and their banker China, who are desperate to beat the demographic and political clock as their kleptocratic and demagogic systems collapse.

The West, and the Pacific democracies are struggling just to make the world stable while they confront a sweeping array of challenges.

Europe didn’t want this fight, but they know what happens if Russia wins.

It’s taken awhile to fully understand the depth of Putin’s ambition to reassemble the Soviet Union without the stupid communism. Almost everyone gets it now.

This is the world’s fight. Putin must be defeated.

The flow of arms to Ukraine will move quickly. The F-16s are about to deploy. The anti-air and artillery supplies will be restocked.

Most importantly - to me at least - my Ukrainian friends are going to survive.

MAGA broke something in the House. Retirements are up. Swing seats are in danger. The endless infighting has soured many “normie” Republicans on the Space Laser Caucus and their strategy of screaming, throwing feces like a rabid monkey in a zoo, and all the performative lying. Even in the right-wing media bubble, the act has gotten old.

Fox has had enough of Marjorie Traitor Goon’s tantrums, her unearned sense of entitlement, and her political terrorism.

The perverse incentives of MAGA rewarded the Space Laser Caucus while leaving the rest - or at least those not representing the most ruby-red districts - fearing electoral survival this fall.

It turns out that shitting in the punchbowl is unwelcome over time. The tell is that Fox has slowly stopped booking the MAGA clowns while Rupert and Lachlan try to find and anoint the Next Star after their major fakakte with Desantis.

Gaetz has burned every conceivable bridge. He may think he can run in and win the Florida Governor’s race, but with a vengeful Kevin McCarthy and an even more vengeful Casey DeSantis in the wings, he’s about to “go through some things.” Last night, ABC News reported, “Matt Gaetz attended 2017 party where minor and drugs were present, woman’s sworn statement obtained by Congress claims.”

Lauren Bobert’s star has disappeared. She’s going to lose a race in the most Republican congressional district in Colorado. Jim Comer is now Jaime Raskin’s public punching bag, so stupid that he still actually believes his own BS.

The House GOP is now staring down the barrel of a political gun; there is no joy in Mudville.

Happy warriors like Jamie Raskin, Jared Moskowitz, Eric Swalwell, Jasmine Crockett and others know who is in charge in the House now.

Chuck Schumer managed to keep his caucus together, pulling in some GOP support, as the Senate schooled the Space Laser Caucus about their impeachment clown show of the House. No high drama; just procedural murder

What has been going on at 100 Centre Street in New York City, where Trump is finally facing the prospect of justice for his crimes in a case that now is seen as far more important than it was originally, is also a good sign the tide and wind are changing.

Attorneys selected the final alternate juror in former President Donald Trump’s hush money case this morning, paving the way for opening arguments to begin next week. Everything moved much faster this week than anyone expected.

The Washington Post reported this morning: “A top leader of the national conservative group Turning Point Action, which has amplified false claims of election fraud by former president Donald Trump and others, resigned Thursday after being accused of forging voter signatures on official paperwork so that he could run for reelection in the Arizona House.”

As David Kurtz put it today at TPM, “We are seeing random citizens who are imbued with an innate understanding of what the rule of law means. That civic-minded understanding of the rule of law is the bedrock foundation for the legal structures we erect upon it. Without it, we have nothing. It’s a small sign of hope in a troubled time.” It is indeed!

This is a moment that reminds me of events aboard USS Enterprise on December 7, 1941.

Admiral Halsey had just poured himself a second cup of coffee when his aide dashed into the cabin. “Admiral, there’s an air raid on Pearl!” and informed him of Enterprise aviators being attacked by enemy aircraft over Oahu. Halsey’s first thought was that the Army’s readiness exercise was taking things too far. He leapt to his feet, telling his aide to radio Kimmel that the Army was “shooting down my own boys!” A second aide entered moments later with a message direct from Admiral Kimmel: “AIR RAID PEARL HARBOR X THIS IS NO DRILL.”

Officer of the Deck Lieutenant John Dorsett ordered General Quarters. Nineteen-year old Seaman Jim Barnill, one of Enterprise’s four buglers, sounded the staccato notes of “Boots and Saddles.” Twenty-eight year old First Class Bosun’s Mate Max Lee played his pipe over the 1MC then called “General Quarters! General Quarters! All hands man your battle stations!” Lee’s enlistment was almost up. After the war, he remembered that he then turned to OOD Dorsett and said “We’re at war and I’ll never get out of the Navy alive.”

Dick Best remembered coming onto the flight deck shortly after general quarters had been called and looking up at the island. “The first thing I saw was the biggest American flag I had ever seen, flying from the masthead and whipping in the wind. It was the most emotional sight of the war for me.”

The December 7, 1941 Enterprise Flag

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