THE POLLS ARE SHIFTING

THE POLLS ARE SHIFTING

There’s good news this Sunday.

The new ABC News poll has Biden leading Trump 49%-45% (+4) with likely voters. This result is similar to this week’s NPR/Marist poll which had Biden 52%-47% (+5) with likely voters.

The important thing to note is that - in both polls - Biden has a significantly better lead with likely voters than with the broader electorate of registered voters. This follows the pattern that has emerged in recent polling: Biden does better, and Trump worse, as the demographic moves from adult to registered voter to likely voter.

This is seen clearly in the Ipsos/ABC News poll: For all Adults, it is Trump +2. Move to Registered Voters and it’s Biden +2. With Likely Voters, it’s Biden +4.

That 6 point difference is very significant, and becomes even more significant if the prediction that this will be a low turnout election relative to recent cycles proves out in November.

For as long as there has been polling, tighter voter screens always favored Republicans, because they were more consistent voters. However, in recent years - most likely explained by the changing demographic bases of the two parties, particularly in terms of educational attainment - the gap between the population at large versus who is going to show up, has flipped.

This past Tuesday night there was another significant over-performance by a Democratic candidate in an election, in line with what has been seen over and over again since the Dobbs decision two years ago. In a special election for the US House in NY-26, Democratic candidate Timothy Kennedy won with 68% of the vote. In 2022, Democratic Congressman Brian Higgins got 64% of the vote, and in 2020, Biden won the district with 62%.

The fact is, the great Republican “victory” with Dobbs has broken the the party. For many non-MAGA Republicans, the party has become too extreme, too dangerous. In the aftermath of Dobbs, Republican candidates have experienced performance problems because a big-enough chunk of their coalition is not enthusiastic about voting for MAGA candidates and going along with the escalating extremism in the party. This reticence manifests when Republicans have to make a decision in the voting booth about whether or not to support MAGA. They may tell a pollster they want to vote Republican in a coming election, but when they have to pull the trigger and actually vote, Republican candidates repeatedly under-perform.

This was seen in the Tom Keen January special election in Orlando; the Suozzi win in New York in February; Alabama a few weeks ago; and NY-26 last Tuesday. The most important voting result showing Republican under-performance in 2024 has been in Trump’s Presidential primary performances; he repeatedly under-performed the public polling before the vote, while Haley repeatedly over-performed, even after she dropped out of the race.

Will this happen in November? As they finally stop checking out from the news this fall, will Americans see Joe Biden: good President, and Donald Trump: the ugliest political thing they’ve ever seen, and give Biden their vote?

Based on the past two years of actual votes, and the way the polls are starting to show up differently as the wind changes, as people start to become aware of what Trump really intends to do as demonstrated in the Time interview, I believe that Reality Intervening will be the most likely scenario.

This is why the work of every Democrat - from talking to their families, their neighbors, the other people in their bridge club, and the efforts of more active Democrats like those in the Civic Sundays organization who spend their afternoon phone banking and writing postcards (it’s been true for the 55 years I have been involved in politics - and before then - that a personally-addressed and signed postcard is 80% more likely to not be thrown away and to register with the recipient than any professional political mailer), to help voters understand the choice in front of them, and see this stark and consequential choice, is so vital. I’ll say it, Robert Hubbell says it, Simon Rosenberg says it - everybody says it! - on every one of the 180 days between now and election day, we need to do more and put our worries aside. Doing more is what is going to make sure we win this November.

When we encounter the political purists who say they just can’t vote for Biden for this or that reason, the response should be: do you really think working to create this change you want will be easier with Donald Trump in the White House? Right now, the job is to save the system of democracy that allows for people to influence policy; political policy differences can become important again after we keep control of the White House and Senate and regain the House, thus preserving democracy. None of those policy arguments will matter for anything if that doesn’t happen.

Democrats have outperformed Republicans by 4.5 points in the popular vote over the past four Presidential elections. Republicans only won the popular vote once in the last eight Presidential elections. That “muscle memory” of voting Democratic in Presidential elections, coupled with the strong performance since 2020 in mid-term, off-year and special elections, is a major obstacle for Trump and MAGA to overcome in 2024.

Like the Old Navy Chief told me when I was a young sailor: when things are so bad that you’ve pissed your drawers and crapped your pants and your brain is frozen, if you just do the job at hand - that’s being a Hero.

The wind has shifted. It’s at our backs and growing stronger. Like the Greek citizens of Athens in 480 B.C. who went into the ships and manned the oars and thereby won the Battle of Salamis, defeating the Persian Empire in a fight almost everyone thought the Athenians would lose, or the crews who manned the dive bombers on the three American aircraft carriers at Midway and destroyed the heart of Kido Butai, it’s time to do the job at hand and be heroes. Not doing so is a slap in the face to every ancestor you have who came here, despite all the difficulties, in search of a better life.

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