SIX WEEKS OUT - STILL A JUMP SHOT

My ancestors may have been among the founders of the Pennsylvania colony, and my great-great-grandfather may have been one of the founders of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, and my grandfather on my father’s side may have been one of the local leaders in Johnstown for Teddy Roosevelt, but my father assured me that, when he left to go to college out of state and then went on to California and then Colorado, he left nothing behind I needed to worry about. My nephew might argue that point, since he says he liked living in Pittsburgh.

Still, I pay attention to the place politically. That’s because it can be described as “Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in the middle,” or “Pennsyltucky,” or other less generous names that refer to the fact that the state is important, and it’s also one of the swingiest. Thus its importance to national politics.

Thus, a new Marist poll conducted with Pennsylvania adults between September 19 to 22, is interesting because it shows significant shifts in the Pennsylvania governor’s race when compared to a June USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters, but almost no change in the state’s U.S. Senate race.

Beneath the surface, voter attitudes toward these two races are hardening relative to both the candidates and the issues.

If these trends continue, the result will be both races wind up in the D column. And that will be very important both in 2022 and 2024.

One piece of very good news is that the biggest change Joe Biden’s job approval rating. Since June, Biden’s approval rating has risen 3 points while disapproval dropped 2 points. A 5-point improvement is an important, measurable shift.

Unsurprisingly, the improvement looks like it’s related to a substantial drop in concerns about inflation, which as we all know is the number one issue nationwide and was earlier thought key to a Republican red wave this November.

In the Suffolk poll in June, 63 percent of respondents said inflation was their top concern. In the Marist poll this month, that fell to 40 percent. It’s a drop that most likely has everything to do with falling gasoline prices, since other prices have continued to rise. Gas is important because it’s an expense that is pretty fixed; people need a certain amount of gas to get to work and to get around to take care of their business, and that cannot be decreased much, unlike the food budget, which can be modified with lower-cost substitutions. So people are paying attention when gas drops from over $5/gallon to close to $3/gallon. That shows up in the budget and means the better grade of hamburger can replace the lower grade.

Meanwhile, abortion as an important issue has ticked up slightly, from 14 percent to 16 percent. Naturally, interest in abortion policy is not evenly distributed and that increase favors Senatorial candidate John Fetterman and gubernatoriual candidate Josh Shapiro over their Republican opponents Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano.

The question of just how much abortion is going to matter is something polls now cannot really figure out with any reliability, because it has never been a serious political motivation factor before, so there is no historical record to compare the current level of interest against. When I look at the “unexpected” results of the blowout in Kansas and the Democratic victories in Republican-friendly venues in upstate New York and Alaska, I think it’s going to be a bigger factor than anyone realizes, but with nothing to compare it against there’s no certainty, or even much real clarity, on the issue.

Right now, Fetterman’s lead remains close to what it was in June.

In the Marist poll he leads by 10, compared to the 9-point lead he had in June. This suggests he has continued to do a solid job of assembling the kind of coalition Democrats need to win statewide.

He’s blowing Oz out in Philadelphia 73-14 and 58-38 in the suburbs. He’s holding his own in central Pennsylvania, trailing Oz by 12 points, even though Oz has solidified his base in the region, scoring 8 percent higher in September than June.

Republican campaigning has driven Fetterman’s unfavorable rating in the state up 12 percent since June, but Oz is still 20 points “underwater” while Fetterman is has a +5 favorability.

Oz’s position can charitably be described as catastrophic regarding high-propensity, white, college-educated voters. Among white, college-educated women, Fetterman leads 68-28; among college-graduate white men he leads 62-35.

Oz has the new Republican advantage among non-college-educated white voters, 52-39, while Fetterman leads among non-white voters 67-22.

Importantly Fetterman’s coalition is larger, more diverse, and more committed. The Marist poll finds 70 percent of Fetterman voters strongly support him compared to 58 percent for Oz.

In the gubernatorial race, Confederate cosplayer/Christian nationalist/conspiratorial wingnut whacko uber-Trumper Mastriano has imploded, demonstrating once again that radicalized primary voters choose terrible general election candidates. He’s had no TV ads since May, and is running a campaign strictly appealing to that radicalized base while pushing away moderates and staying well clear of reporters for newspapers and TV. The Republican Governor’s Association has pulled its financial support.

In June, Josh Shapiro led Mastriano by only 4 percent. Now, he leads by 12, 54-42, among respondents who say they are definitively voting in November.

Shapiro leads 71-26 among college-educated white women. Even in “Alabama” central Pennsylvania, Mastriano leads by only 52-44. He’s down 48 points in big cities, 16 in small cities, 22 in suburbs, 1 in small towns. His only big lead is +23 in rural areas; while it’s necessary for a Republican to lead there, rural votes are insufficient for a statewide Republican win.

The cooling of inflation fears is allowing other issue sets to drive key demographics. While “inflation’ is still the top issue with 40 percent, 29 percent said it was “preserving democracy” - 40 percent were Democrats, 36 percent were independents, and 16 percent were Republicans. This suggests there is a strong view among voters that democracy itself really is on the ballot and these voters are supporting Democratic candidates. Number three was abortion, which 16 percent said was number one for them; this also tilts toward Democrats. Thus, 45% of voters have something besides inflation as their primary issue, giving “not inflation” the lead.

This is bad news overall for Republicans. They have bad candidates, and are seen to be on the wrong side of the important issues with a majority of voters.

Similar pictures of the battlefield are starting to show up elsewhere.

But the most important election in the lives of anyone reading this is still a “jump shot” six weeks out.

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